Scrapping plans to make 1.6 million Boriswave immigrants wait longer for permanent settlement in Britain could cost taxpayers an extra £30 billion, according to new analysis by Reform UK.
The Labour government has proposed doubling the standard qualifying period for indefinite leave to remain (ILR) from five years to at least 10. The reforms are intended to apply to immigrants who arrived in Britain from 2021 onwards, during the Boriswave – that unprecedented surge in immigration from outside the EU, unleashed by Boris Johnson.
But Labour MPs are pressing ministers to water down the policy for those already in the country, potentially allowing the entire 1.6 million-strong Boriswave cohort to qualify for settlement by 2030. It also seems likely that Andy Burnham will soften these reforms significantly, if not scrap them altogether.
Reform UK estimates that such a U-turn would cost £30 billion over the immigrants’ lifetimes – the equivalent of approximately £1,100 for every British household.
Even that is a conservative estimate. Reform UK’s calculation takes into account the fact that many of the costs of immigration, particularly higher welfare and healthcare spending, arise decades later rather than immediately.
Without that adjustment, the 1.6 million immigrants expected to qualify for settlement between 2026 and 2030 would cost the country £622 billion over their lifetimes – or around £20,000 per British household.
Much of that burden comes from welfare and healthcare spending. Obtaining ILR allows immigrants to live and work permanently in Britain and gives them access to benefits, including Universal Credit, housing support, disability payments and pension credits.
Those granted settlement also stop paying visa fees and the £1,035 annual immigration health surcharge.
The scale of the problem is underlined by Reform UK’s finding that only 482,000 of the 1.6 million immigrants are skilled workers. This group is expected to make a positive lifetime contribution of £35 billion, but the overall cohort would still leave taxpayers facing an enormous net bill.
A Reform UK government would abolish ILR altogether and replace it with renewable five-year visas. Immigrants would remain barred from the welfare system until they became British citizens, with the minimum qualifying period for citizenship increased to seven years.
As Reform UK Shadow Home Secretary Zia Yusuf warned recently, the Boriswave is on the verge of bankrupting Britain. Only Reform UK has a plan to stop it.