Nigel Farage’s Chance of Becoming PM Revealed in New Bombshell Poll
Nigel Farage’s hopes of becoming Britain’s next Prime Minister have been dealt a fresh blow after a series of new polls suggested that his path to Downing Street is far from the political certainty that some Reform UK supporters had predicted.
The latest figures come at a crucial moment for Farage. Reform UK has spent much of the past year establishing itself as a major force in British politics, at times leading national voting-intention polls. But the arrival of Andy Burnham as Labour leader and Prime Minister has changed the political landscape dramatically.
A recent YouGov poll for The Times put Labour on 24 per cent, two points ahead of Reform UK on 22 per cent. The result represented Labour’s first lead over Reform in 18 months and marked Reform’s lowest score since March 2025.
For Farage, the figures are significant.
They suggest that while Reform remains a powerful electoral force, the party’s surge may have reached a more difficult phase.
Farage was once seen as a potential favourite
Only months ago, the prospect of Farage entering Downing Street appeared increasingly plausible.
Reform surged to the top of several opinion polls, while the Conservatives struggled to recover from their electoral collapse. Labour, meanwhile, faced deep dissatisfaction under former Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
Farage appeared to have found the political formula that had eluded him for decades.
His long campaign against the political establishment, his role in Brexit and Reform’s hard-line positions on immigration and crime all appeared to be connecting with voters.
In some polls, Reform moved comfortably ahead of Labour and the Conservatives.
But the political situation changed sharply after Burnham became Prime Minister in July.
A Reuters analysis found that Labour’s support increased significantly following Burnham’s arrival, with several polling organisations showing Labour either catching or overtaking Reform. One Survation poll put Labour on 26 per cent compared with 24 per cent for Reform, while another More in Common survey put Labour on 28 per cent.
The shift has raised an uncomfortable question for Farage: has Reform already reached its peak?
Burnham changes the equation
The arrival of Burnham has given Labour an opportunity to recover voters who had become disillusioned with Starmer’s leadership.
Burnham has attempted to present himself as a more populist Labour leader, emphasising the cost of living, regional inequality, public services and economic reform.
His first weeks in office have included measures aimed at reducing household costs, including changes to energy taxation and a renewed bus-fare cap.
That strategy appears to have helped Labour regain some of the voters who had drifted towards smaller parties.
The latest YouGov figures showed that 60 per cent of Labour’s 2024 voters said they would continue to support the party under Burnham, compared with 49 per cent in June. Support among 18-to-24-year-olds also increased sharply.
That matters because Reform’s earlier rise was partly fuelled by voters who wanted to punish Labour rather than necessarily embrace Reform as their first-choice party.
If those voters return to Labour, Farage’s route to a parliamentary majority becomes much harder.
The poll that put Burnham ahead of Farage
The question of who voters actually want as Prime Minister is even more revealing than party voting intention.
An Ipsos poll conducted shortly before Burnham entered Downing Street found that 30 per cent of Britons preferred Burnham as Prime Minister, compared with 16 per cent for Farage and 13 per cent for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
At that stage Reform was still narrowly ahead of Labour on voting intention, with 26 per cent compared with Labour’s 24 per cent.
The contrast illustrates one of Farage’s biggest political problems.
A party can win a large share of the national vote without its leader being the preferred candidate for Prime Minister.
Farage’s personal popularity has long been highly polarised. His supporters see him as an experienced politician willing to say what other leaders will not. His opponents view him as divisive and too confrontational to govern effectively.
That polarisation could become critical at a general election.
Reform still has a route to power
Despite the recent setbacks, it would be premature to write Farage off.
Britain’s electoral system means that national polling percentages do not automatically translate into parliamentary seats.
A fragmented electorate could produce an extraordinarily unpredictable result.
Reform’s support is geographically concentrated in areas where opposition to immigration and dissatisfaction with the traditional parties are particularly strong.
The party also has an opportunity to attract Conservative voters who believe the Conservatives have become too moderate or failed to deliver on immigration.
Farage’s message remains highly effective among those voters.
And Reform still has considerable time to rebuild its momentum before the next general election.
The Clacton result is a warning sign
Farage’s recent Clacton by-election victory provides an intriguing illustration of both his strength and his vulnerability.
He won the seat with 22,239 votes, representing about 62.8 per cent of the vote.
On the surface, that was an overwhelming victory.
But the circumstances were unusual.
The Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats and Greens did not contest the election, leaving Farage to face more than 30 candidates, including the satirical candidate Count Binface. Binface unexpectedly finished second with 9,455 votes, or 26.7 per cent.
Turnout was only 44.4 per cent, compared with 58.7 per cent at the 2024 general election.
That makes it difficult to use the result as evidence of Farage’s nationwide popularity.
Indeed, one recent MRP projection cited by The Sun placed Labour on 228 seats, Reform on 151, the Conservatives on 130 and the Liberal Democrats on 68. Such projections are snapshots rather than forecasts, but they demonstrate how a fragmented electorate could leave Farage well short of the numbers needed to govern alone.
Reform’s biggest problem: the right is divided
Another obstacle is the growing fragmentation of Britain’s political right.
Farage faces competition from the Conservatives as well as from newer right-wing movements.
The emergence of Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has the potential to divide voters who might otherwise support Reform.
That matters enormously under Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system.
If Reform and other right-wing parties split the vote between them, Labour and the Liberal Democrats could win constituencies without securing majority support.
Farage therefore needs more than a high national vote share.
He needs to ensure that his support is concentrated efficiently enough to translate into parliamentary seats.
His personal ratings are another problem
Farage’s political brand is one of Reform’s greatest strengths — but also one of its greatest weaknesses.
The party is closely identified with him.
That gives Reform a recognisable national figure, but it also means that controversies involving Farage can directly damage the party.
His recent financial controversies have provided Labour and other opponents with ammunition.
A parliamentary standards investigation into Farage was resumed after his return to Parliament following the Clacton by-election. The investigation concerns allegations surrounding a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency businessman Christopher Harborne, which Farage says was a personal gift and not a political donation.
Farage has denied wrongdoing.
Nevertheless, the controversy has created an unwelcome distraction for Reform at a time when the party needs to focus on expanding its support.
The immigration issue remains central
If Farage has one political issue capable of restoring Reform’s momentum, it is immigration.
The party has continued to place immigration and border control at the centre of its platform.
Earlier this month, Reform unveiled “Operation Fortress”, a proposed military-led strategy intended to stop small boats crossing the English Channel and return migrants to France.
Farage said the plan could involve the largest British military deployment in the Channel since the Second World War.
Critics questioned both the legal and practical feasibility of the proposal, particularly the idea of operating in French territorial waters without French permission.
Yet politically, immigration remains one of Reform’s strongest issues.
If small-boat arrivals rise again or public concern about immigration increases, Farage could regain voters who have recently moved back towards Labour or the Conservatives.
The economy could decide everything
The next major battleground is likely to be the economy.
Farage’s political appeal is partly based on the argument that successive governments have failed to improve living standards.
If households continue to struggle with housing costs, energy bills and taxes, Reform could argue that the established parties have failed once again.
Burnham’s government is therefore under pressure to demonstrate that its economic agenda produces visible improvements.
If Labour succeeds, Reform’s central argument becomes weaker.
If Labour fails, Farage could quickly regain momentum.
That makes the next two years exceptionally important.
Could Farage still become Prime Minister?
Yes — but the latest evidence suggests that he is not currently on a straightforward path to Downing Street.
The idea that Reform could simply win the next election because it once led the opinion polls has become much less convincing.
Labour has recovered.
The Conservatives are showing signs of renewed competitiveness.
The right is becoming more fragmented.
Farage himself remains controversial.
And Reform’s national support has recently slipped.
A recent Opinium poll in July put Reform on 24 per cent, down two points and its weakest result in that series since January 2025. Labour was on 19 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent.
That does not mean Reform is finished.
Far from it.
A party polling around the mid-20s can still be enormously influential in a fragmented British electorate.
But winning enough seats to make Farage Prime Minister is a much harder challenge.
The coalition question
There is another possibility.
Farage may not need to win an outright majority.
If the next election produces a hung parliament, Reform could find itself holding the balance of power.
In that situation, Farage could potentially demand major policy concessions in exchange for supporting another government.
However, becoming Prime Minister would require a much stronger position.
He would need either a parliamentary majority or a political arrangement capable of sustaining his government in the Commons.
That remains a formidable challenge.
The bombshell verdict
The latest polling therefore delivers a mixed message for Nigel Farage.
The good news is that Reform remains one of Britain’s three major political forces.
The party continues to command substantial support and has demonstrated that it can win elections decisively in the right circumstances.
But the bad news is that its momentum has slowed just as Labour has begun to recover.
Burnham is now preferred to Farage as Prime Minister in available head-to-head polling, while Labour has moved ahead of Reform in a recent YouGov survey.
That is a dramatic change from the political landscape earlier this year.
Farage’s dream of entering Downing Street is therefore still alive, but increasingly dependent on what happens next.
If Reform can reunite the right, maintain its dominance on immigration and convince voters that it is ready to govern rather than simply protest, Farage could still pull off the political upset of his career.
But if Burnham continues rebuilding Labour, the Conservatives recover and Reform’s vote fragments, the road to No 10 could become much steeper.
For now, the polls do not show a man on an unstoppable march to Downing Street.
They show something much more interesting: a political race that is still wide open — and a Nigel Farage who can no longer afford to assume that victory is inevitable.