Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes Hit in New Poll
Andy Burnham’s honeymoon period in Downing Street may already be showing signs of strain.
The new Prime Minister entered office with an immediate political advantage. He was more popular than his predecessor, Keir Starmer, and his arrival gave Labour a much-needed lift after months of electoral disappointment. Yet the latest polling suggests that the initial “Burnham bounce” may be beginning to lose some of its force.
That should concern Labour.
Burnham has only recently become Prime Minister, and his first weeks in office have been marked by an unusually positive public reaction compared with the ratings recorded by several of his predecessors. But popularity can disappear quickly once a government moves from announcing ambitions to making difficult decisions.
The latest figures provide an early warning that the new Prime Minister cannot rely indefinitely on personal popularity.
The honeymoon is beginning to face its first test
When Burnham entered Downing Street, he benefited from something increasingly rare in British politics: voters were prepared to give a new leader the benefit of the doubt.
YouGov’s first favourability poll of his premiership found that 38% of Britons viewed Burnham favourably, compared with 35% who viewed him unfavourably, giving him a net favourability rating of +3. The poll described him as the most popular new prime minister since Theresa May.
That was an impressive starting point.
Burnham’s rating was considerably better than those recorded by Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss when they entered Downing Street. He also performed better than Starmer’s initial post-election rating.
But the significance of the latest polling is not simply whether Burnham remains more popular than previous prime ministers.
The real question is whether his support can survive contact with government.
A new poll brings a warning
Recent polling indicates that Burnham’s approval remains positive, but has slipped from the very high levels recorded immediately after his arrival.
An Opinium poll reported on August 15 showed Burnham’s approval rating falling by five points from the previous week, although he remained comfortably ahead of the other major party leaders. His net approval was reported at +11.
The decline should not be exaggerated.
A positive rating of +11 would still represent a relatively strong position for a British prime minister.
But politically, the direction of travel matters.
Burnham does not need to become unpopular overnight for Labour strategists to become nervous. What matters is whether the initial enthusiasm surrounding his leadership is gradually fading.
If the fall continues, opponents will argue that the so-called Burnham bounce was temporary.
And that would change the political calculations in Westminster.
Burnham still has significant advantages
It is important to put the latest figures into perspective.
Burnham remains in a substantially stronger position than Starmer was during the final months of his premiership.
He also enjoys a degree of personal recognition and political experience that few new prime ministers possess.
Before entering Downing Street, Burnham spent years as mayor of Greater Manchester, building a reputation for regional government, public transport policies and his ability to communicate directly with voters.
Polling conducted before he became prime minister consistently showed that voters regarded him as a more credible potential leader than several of his rivals.
Ipsos found in June that 30% of Britons selected Burnham as the person they thought would make the most capable prime minister, compared with 16% for Nigel Farage and 13% for Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
That is a substantial advantage.
The problem is that being the preferred alternative to an unpopular government is very different from maintaining public support once you are responsible for everything.
The difficult part of governing starts now
The first weeks of a new administration are relatively easy.
A new government can announce initiatives, visit different parts of the country and promise change.
The public is often willing to wait.
But eventually every government faces difficult choices.
For Burnham, those choices are arriving quickly.
His government has to deal with pressure on public finances, the NHS, prisons, immigration, energy costs, business taxation and local government.
The prison system has already become a politically sensitive issue, with the government coming under pressure over plans for the early release of prisoners. Probation officers have also voted overwhelmingly in favour of potential strike action because of concerns about workloads.
That is exactly the kind of issue that can damage a new government’s popularity.
Voters may applaud promises to reform the justice system.
They may be much less forgiving when the government has to decide which prisoners should be released, how much money should be spent and how public safety should be protected.
The economy will be the biggest test
Perhaps the greatest danger to Burnham’s popularity is the economy.
The public can tolerate political disagreements when household finances are improving.
They are much less forgiving when they feel poorer.
Burnham has already promoted measures intended to reduce the cost of living, including changes involving energy bills and public transport. His government has also sought to support businesses and the hospitality sector.
These measures helped create the initial positive impression.
But the economic challenge is far larger than any individual announcement.
Britain continues to face high public debt, pressure on public spending and weak productivity.
And voters remain sceptical about politicians’ economic competence.
An Opinium poll published before Burnham took office found that every political figure tested had a negative net trust rating on economic and financial matters. Burnham and Kemi Badenoch were both on -14, while Rachel Reeves was significantly lower.
That is an important warning.
Burnham may be personally popular, but voters are not automatically convinced that Labour can deliver economic improvement.
Reform UK is waiting for any mistake
The biggest beneficiary of a decline in Burnham’s popularity could be Reform UK.
Nigel Farage’s party has spent months presenting itself as the alternative to the established political system.
For a period, Reform appeared to have a commanding position in national polling.
But Burnham’s arrival changed the picture.
Reuters reported in July that Labour had rapidly improved its position after Burnham became prime minister, with several polls showing Labour catching or overtaking Reform.
More recently, the Financial Times reported that Labour had moved ahead of Reform in its poll tracker, with Labour on 25% and Reform on 24%.
That makes the latest movement in Burnham’s personal ratings particularly important.
If his popularity falls while Reform begins recovering, the political narrative could change very quickly.
Instead of “Burnham has rescued Labour”, the headlines could become “Burnham’s honeymoon is over”.
Farage has his own problems
However, Reform cannot simply assume that every Labour setback will translate into votes for Farage.
The Reform leader’s own popularity has suffered.
YouGov recorded Nigel Farage’s net favourability at -46 in July, describing it as the joint-lowest rating recorded by its favourability tracker over the previous decade.
Reform has also faced political controversies and scrutiny surrounding party conduct and financial matters.
That creates an unusual situation.
Burnham may be losing some of his initial popularity, but Farage remains substantially less popular with the wider electorate.
The British public may therefore be dissatisfied with the government without necessarily wanting Reform to replace it.
That is one of the most important facts in the current political landscape.
The Conservatives are trying to recover too
The Conservatives also have an opportunity.
Kemi Badenoch’s favourability rating improved in YouGov’s July polling, reaching its highest level in the tracker and the strongest rating recorded for a Conservative leader in more than five years.
This does not mean the Conservatives are suddenly back in a dominant position.
But it demonstrates that Britain’s political realignment is far from settled.
Burnham’s Labour has to compete simultaneously with Reform on its right and the Conservatives for voters who remain uncertain about the direction of the country.
The new prime minister therefore faces an unusually crowded political battlefield.
The danger of overconfidence
One of the biggest risks for Burnham is complacency.
His arrival generated enormous political enthusiasm within Labour.
The party had been suffering under Starmer, and Burnham represented a dramatic change in personality and political style.
He was more associated with local government, public services and regional empowerment.
That created a sense that Labour had discovered a new political identity.
But voters do not vote for personalities forever.
Eventually they judge governments by results.
Can Burnham reduce waiting lists?
Can he improve living standards?
Can he control public spending?
Can he address immigration?
Can he reform prisons without compromising public safety?
Can he restore confidence in Britain’s economy?
These are the questions that will determine whether the Burnham era becomes a lasting political realignment or simply another short-lived leadership honeymoon.
The next few months could be decisive
The autumn could prove particularly important.
Burnham’s government faces difficult budgetary choices, with reports of a significant fiscal gap that Chancellor John Healey will have to address.
That is where the political honeymoon could meet reality.
Tax rises are unpopular.
Spending cuts are unpopular.
Borrowing has limits.
Yet public services demand more money.
There is no painless solution.
A prime minister can appear highly popular while making promises.
The real political test begins when those promises collide with the Treasury’s calculations.
Burnham still has time
Despite the warning signs, it would be premature to suggest that Burnham’s position is in serious danger.
His approval remains positive.
Labour has recovered significantly in national polling.
He remains more popular than the major opposition leaders in several measures.
And many voters are still forming their opinions about his premiership.
YouGov’s July survey found that 26% of voters were still undecided about Burnham, showing that his political image had not yet hardened.
That is both an opportunity and a danger.
Burnham can still persuade millions of voters.
But he can also lose them.
Conclusion
Andy Burnham entered Downing Street with something his predecessor desperately lacked: public goodwill.
His early popularity helped Labour recover from a period of political crisis and allowed the new government to start with a sense of momentum.
But the latest polling provides a clear warning.
The Burnham bounce may be weakening.
That does not mean the new Prime Minister has become unpopular. Far from it. His approval remains positive, and he continues to outperform several of his political rivals.
But the easy part of his premiership is ending.
From now on, voters will judge Burnham less on speeches and personality and more on results.
The economy will be central.
Public services will matter.
Immigration, crime and prisons will test his authority.
And every difficult decision will give Reform UK and the Conservatives an opportunity to attack.
For Burnham, the task is therefore not simply to remain popular.
It is to turn popularity into trust — and trust into measurable improvements in people’s lives.
If he succeeds, the current dip in the polls will be remembered as nothing more than a minor correction after an unusually strong start.
If he fails, today’s warning could prove to be the first sign that the much-discussed Burnham political revolution was never as secure as Labour hoped.
For now, one thing is clear: the honeymoon is not necessarily over, but the honeymoon period is no longer guaranteed.