Farage Popularity Hits Lowest Since Election as Rival Takes Lead in Apollo
Nigel Farage is facing one of the most difficult moments of his political career after his personal popularity fell to its lowest level since the 2024 general election, while Labour has moved ahead of Reform UK in national opinion polling.
The development represents a striking change in Britain’s political landscape. For much of the period since the 2024 election, Reform UK and Farage had appeared to be the dominant force on the political right, frequently leading the Conservatives and Labour in voting-intention polls. Now, however, the party’s momentum has begun to weaken at the same time as Andy Burnham’s Labour government has enjoyed a significant early boost.
The latest polling suggests that Farage’s personal standing is becoming an increasing problem for Reform. Opinium’s August polling placed Farage on a net approval rating of -25, while Prime Minister Andy Burnham was on +16. Burnham was also ahead of Farage in measures asking voters who would make the better prime minister.
Other polling has produced similarly difficult results for the Reform leader. YouGov reported in August that Reform UK had reached its lowest net favourability rating recorded by the organisation, at -38. At the same time, Labour’s net favourability improved to -25, its strongest level since November 2024.
The figures are particularly significant because Farage has always been central to Reform’s political identity. Unlike traditional political parties with a deep bench of senior politicians, Reform has built much of its public profile around its leader. Farage’s ability to attract attention, dominate political debates and mobilise voters has been one of the party’s greatest strengths.
That strength can also become a weakness.
If Farage’s popularity falls, Reform cannot easily separate itself from its leader. Polling experts have increasingly questioned whether the same figure who helped drive the party’s spectacular rise could now be contributing to its decline. The Independent recently reported that analysts believed Farage had been the “motor” behind Reform’s rise but was now becoming a factor in its falling support.
The timing could hardly be more uncomfortable.
Reform’s difficulties have coincided with the arrival of Andy Burnham as prime minister. Burnham has quickly established himself as a more popular political figure than many expected, giving Labour an opportunity to recover from the deep unpopularity that characterised the final period of Keir Starmer’s leadership.
The contrast between the two leaders is particularly striking.
Farage has spent years presenting himself as the outsider challenging Westminster. His political appeal has been built around frustration with the establishment, immigration, Brexit, taxation and what he describes as the failure of mainstream parties to listen to ordinary voters.
Burnham, by contrast, has attempted to present Labour as a government capable of delivering practical changes to people’s everyday lives.
His early agenda has included proposals on social care, energy costs and public transport, while his government has sought to establish a political identity based on economic security and public services. The initial reaction has been relatively positive. The Times reported that Burnham had a slightly positive net approval rating only weeks into office, while his support was stronger than that of other major party leaders, including Farage.
This does not mean that Labour has suddenly become overwhelmingly popular.
The government’s position remains fragile, and voters are still uncertain about whether Burnham can deliver his promises. Polling from Lord Ashcroft also indicates that substantial questions remain about the new prime minister’s plans, taxation and his ability to represent the interests of the whole country.
Nevertheless, the immediate political direction has changed.
One of the clearest signs of this shift came from Ipsos, whose polling conducted between July 30 and August 4 put Labour three points ahead of Reform UK. Ipsos also found that Burnham was preferred as prime minister to both Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
The Financial Times poll tracker has similarly recorded Labour overtaking Reform for the first time since April 2025, with Labour on 25% and Reform on 24%.
That change is important because Reform had previously established itself as a formidable challenger to both traditional parties.
For Labour, the development provides welcome breathing space. The party had been under enormous pressure as Reform gained support among voters who were dissatisfied with the government. Immigration, living costs and concerns about public services had all provided opportunities for Farage.
Now Burnham has an opportunity to change the political conversation.
For Reform, however, the problem is more complicated than one or two disappointing polls.
The party is also facing controversy over its finances and political leadership. Farage has been under scrutiny over a reported £5 million gift from cryptocurrency billionaire Christopher Harborne, an issue that has added to questions about the party’s internal management and political judgement. The combination of financial controversy, falling approval and a weaker national polling position has created a difficult environment for Reform.
Yet Farage has also demonstrated that he remains capable of winning elections.
His recent return to Parliament through the Clacton by-election is an important reminder that national opinion polling does not tell the entire story. Farage won the seat with more than 60% of the vote, defeating satirical candidate Count Binface. However, the result was unusual because the major parties chose not to contest the election.
The Clacton result therefore gives Farage something to celebrate even as his national popularity declines.
It also illustrates the difference between personal electoral strength and national political momentum.
In Clacton, Farage remains an extremely powerful candidate. Nationally, however, the picture is much more uncertain.
That distinction could become crucial at the next general election.
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system means that a party’s national vote share does not automatically translate into parliamentary seats. Reform could potentially remain highly competitive even if its national polling falls slightly, particularly in constituencies where it has established strong local support.
At the same time, a divided right could make it much harder for Reform to convert votes into seats.
The Conservative Party is showing signs of recovery in some measures, while Kemi Badenoch has improved her position among certain sections of the electorate. YouGov’s latest favourability figures put the Conservatives on their strongest net rating since 2021, although the party remains far from dominant.
This creates a three-way contest on the right.
Reform wants to replace the Conservatives as the main party of the British right. The Conservatives want to recover voters who defected to Farage. Labour, meanwhile, wants to prevent Reform from building a coalition of working-class and socially conservative voters in former Labour constituencies.
Farage therefore faces pressure from both directions.
If he moderates his rhetoric, he risks disappointing the voters who support Reform precisely because they see the party as more radical than the Conservatives. But if he remains highly confrontational, he risks reinforcing the negative perceptions that are contributing to his declining approval ratings.
This is an especially difficult challenge for a politician whose career has been built around confrontation.
Farage has always understood the power of political drama. He has been one of Britain’s most effective political communicators, particularly on Brexit and immigration. His ability to dominate news coverage has repeatedly helped him turn relatively small political movements into national forces.
But political attention is not the same as political popularity.
A politician can generate enormous headlines while simultaneously becoming less attractive to voters.
That appears to be the danger facing Farage now.
The question is whether the decline represents a temporary reaction to recent controversies or the beginning of a deeper change in public attitudes.
Reform’s supporters will argue that polling can change quickly. Burnham’s honeymoon period may eventually fade, while the government’s decisions on taxation, spending and public services could create new opportunities for Reform.
There is also a significant difference between approving of a political leader and voting for that leader’s party. Farage could recover personally if the political environment changes.
The Labour government should therefore be cautious about assuming that Reform has been defeated.
Burnham’s current advantage is significant, but it is not necessarily permanent. New prime ministers often receive a short-term boost after taking office, particularly when voters are relieved to see a change from an unpopular predecessor. The real test will come when the government has to make difficult decisions.
That is when Farage could attempt to return to the offensive.
For now, however, the political momentum appears to have shifted.
Labour has moved ahead of Reform in several recent polls, Burnham is outperforming Farage on leadership measures, and Reform’s overall favourability has fallen sharply.
For a politician who spent years positioning himself as the inevitable future prime minister, that represents a serious warning.
Farage’s response will be closely watched.
He has survived political setbacks before. He failed repeatedly to win a Westminster seat before finally entering Parliament, spent years campaigning on Brexit before achieving victory, and later rebuilt his political movement after leaving frontline politics.
His political career has therefore been defined by resilience.
But Reform now faces a different challenge. It is no longer enough to be the party of protest. If Farage wants to become prime minister, he must convince voters that Reform is capable of governing Britain.
That means demonstrating credibility beyond immigration and Brexit, presenting convincing economic policies and proving that the party can operate effectively inside Westminster.
The decline in Farage’s popularity makes that task even more urgent.
For Andy Burnham, meanwhile, the opportunity is obvious. If Labour can maintain its current advantage and convert the prime minister’s personal popularity into support for the government, it could dramatically alter the balance of British politics.
The next phase of the political battle will therefore be crucial.
Farage has not disappeared, and Reform remains a major political force. But the era in which his rise appeared unstoppable has clearly been interrupted.
For the first time in a considerable period, another leader has seized the political initiative.
Whether Andy Burnham can hold that advantage, or whether Nigel Farage can once again turn political controversy into electoral momentum, may determine the shape of Britain’s next general election.
For now, though, the headline is unmistakable: Farage’s popularity is falling, Reform’s lead has disappeared, and Labour is beginning to believe that the political tide may finally be turning in its favour.