Nightmare for Andy Burnham as Reform Wins Seven By-Elections With Labour Smashed in One Key Vote

Andy Burnham’s arrival at the heart of British politics was supposed to give Labour a badly needed political reset. Instead, the continuing rise of Reform UK has created a formidable challenge for the new Labour leadership, particularly in the party’s traditional heartlands.

The latest wave of by-election results has provided another reminder that Reform’s advance cannot simply be dismissed as a temporary protest. Across a series of contests, the party has demonstrated an ability to exploit dissatisfaction with the established parties, while Labour has discovered that its historic support in parts of England can no longer be taken for granted.

Yet the political picture is more complicated than a simple Reform landslide.

Burnham has only recently become prime minister, and the latest national polling suggests that Labour has already begun recovering support. A YouGov poll reported by The Times put Labour on 24 per cent, ahead of Reform UK on 22 per cent, marking the first time Labour had led Reform in that measure for around 18 months.

So why, then, are Reform’s by-election successes such a nightmare for Burnham?

The answer lies in where those victories are happening.

Reform is targeting Labour’s traditional territory

For decades, Labour could rely on large parts of northern and working-class England as the foundation of its electoral strength.

That political map has changed dramatically.

The rise of Reform has demonstrated that many voters who once regarded Labour as their natural political home are willing to consider Nigel Farage’s party. The transformation has been particularly striking in areas that were once described as Labour heartlands.

Barnsley provides perhaps the clearest warning.

Labour had controlled Barnsley council since its creation in 1974. Yet at the May 2026 local elections, Reform won 42 seats, leaving Labour with only 11 councillors and taking control of a council that had been a Labour stronghold for generations.

That was not an isolated symbolic defeat.

It was a political earthquake.

And it demonstrated the scale of the challenge facing Burnham.

The prime minister’s personal political history makes the situation even more intriguing. As the former mayor of Greater Manchester, Burnham has spent years building a reputation as a politician who understands northern communities and can speak to voters outside Westminster.

His political appeal was supposed to help Labour rebuild its relationship with those voters.

But Reform has already established itself as a serious alternative.

The Makerfield test

The importance of this battle became particularly obvious during the Makerfield by-election.

The contest was widely watched because it gave Burnham an opportunity to return to Parliament and establish his authority as Labour leader. Reform emerged as the main challenger, creating the possibility of a remarkable upset.

Instead, Burnham secured a decisive victory.

That result mattered enormously.

Reform’s defeat in Makerfield showed that the party’s rapid rise is not inevitable. Labour can still win back voters when it fields a strong candidate and gives them a compelling reason to return.

Burnham’s victory was described as a crushing Labour win, with Reform finishing a distant second.

But the result also revealed something else.

Reform had been able to make the contest competitive enough to attract intense national attention.

That would have been almost unimaginable in some Labour constituencies only a few years ago.

The message for Burnham is therefore complicated.

He can beat Reform.

But he cannot assume that Labour will automatically beat Reform.

Seven victories change the political conversation

The significance of Reform’s seven by-election victories lies not only in the individual seats.

It is the cumulative effect.

Each victory provides the party with another example to demonstrate to voters that it can defeat established political parties.

Politics is heavily influenced by momentum.

When voters believe that a party is rising, they can become more willing to support it. They may decide that their vote is no longer wasted on a smaller challenger.

That is one of the advantages Reform currently possesses.

Every successful by-election campaign strengthens its claim that it is not simply a protest movement.

Every Labour defeat reinforces the perception that traditional party loyalties are breaking down.

This is particularly dangerous for Burnham because Labour needs to convince voters that its new leadership represents a genuine change.

If voters see Reform continuing to win local contests, Labour’s message becomes much harder to sell.

But Reform’s national momentum has weakened

There is an important counterargument.

Reform UK is not currently enjoying the same unstoppable momentum it appeared to possess earlier in the year.

Recent polling has shifted significantly.

The YouGov figures showing Labour ahead of Reform represent a notable reversal. Labour’s support had been badly damaged under Keir Starmer, but Burnham’s leadership has helped bring some former Labour voters back into the fold.

Another recent analysis found that voters in Barnsley who had moved from Labour to Reform were beginning to reconsider their decision after Burnham became Labour leader.

Some former Labour supporters interviewed by The Guardian expressed cautious optimism about Burnham and suggested they might return to Labour if his government delivers.

That is potentially very important.

Reform may have won spectacular victories.

But winning dissatisfied voters is one thing.

Keeping them permanently is another.

Burnham has one major advantage

Unlike Labour under its previous leadership, Burnham has a clear political identity.

He has spent years building a reputation around local government, devolution and northern economic development.

That gives him something Farage cannot easily replicate.

Burnham can present himself as a politician who has actually run a major public administration and delivered tangible policies.

That credibility could become increasingly valuable.

His government has already promoted measures including a £2 bus fare cap and changes to energy taxation, while pushing a stronger devolution agenda.

For voters who are tired of political arguments but want improvements in everyday life, that practical message could be powerful.

Reform therefore faces its own challenge.

It must prove that it can govern.

Winning elections is only the first step.

The Farage problem

Reform’s national strategy remains heavily dependent on Nigel Farage.

That creates both strength and vulnerability.

Farage remains one of Britain’s most recognisable politicians and has an exceptionally loyal political base.

But he is also facing renewed scrutiny over his finances.

After resigning his Clacton seat and triggering a by-election, Farage returned to Parliament with 62.8 per cent of the vote. Yet the parliamentary investigation into an undeclared £5 million gift from cryptocurrency businessman Christopher Harborne resumed following his victory.

That means Reform’s leader is simultaneously trying to expand the party nationally while defending himself against an institutional investigation.

If the controversy intensifies, it could provide Labour with an opportunity.

But there is also a danger.

Farage has spent decades turning political attacks into fuel for his anti-establishment message. His supporters may interpret continued scrutiny as proof that powerful institutions are attempting to stop Reform.

The issue could therefore strengthen the loyalty of the party’s existing supporters even while making it harder to attract undecided voters.

The real battlefield is the “Red Wall”

The most important question for Burnham is not whether Reform can win an individual by-election.

It is whether Reform can permanently break Labour’s traditional coalition.

The so-called Red Wall constituencies are crucial.

These are communities where cultural issues, immigration, economic frustration and distrust of Westminster have combined to weaken traditional Labour loyalty.

Farage understands this extremely well.

His political message is designed to appeal to voters who believe that mainstream politicians have ignored their concerns.

Burnham has a difficult task because he must address those concerns without abandoning Labour’s broader political identity.

That means the prime minister needs to demonstrate that Labour can deliver on the economy, public services, migration and living standards while also speaking directly to voters who feel alienated from Westminster.

Reform’s biggest opportunity

The seven by-election victories give Reform something that money cannot easily buy: proof of concept.

The party can tell voters that it is winning.

It can point to Labour defeats and Conservative collapses.

It can argue that Britain’s political system is undergoing a historic realignment.

And there is genuine evidence behind that argument.

The May local elections were particularly damaging for Labour, while Reform’s performance in places such as Barnsley demonstrated its ability to convert national support into local political power.

That makes the party much more difficult to dismiss.

But Reform must avoid believing its own hype.

The Makerfield result demonstrated that voters can still rally behind Labour when presented with a strong alternative.

And the latest national polling shows that Burnham has already begun recovering some of the ground Labour lost.

The political race is therefore far from settled.

A nightmare — but not necessarily a disaster

Calling the latest results a nightmare for Burnham may be justified politically, but it would be premature to suggest that Labour is finished.

Indeed, the evidence points towards a much closer contest.

Reform has established itself as a serious political force.

Labour has suffered devastating defeats in traditional strongholds.

But Burnham has also achieved an important victory in Makerfield and appears to have generated a modest polling recovery.

The result is an increasingly unpredictable three- or four-way political system in which relatively small shifts in voter behaviour can produce enormous changes in parliamentary representation.

That could make the next general election extraordinarily volatile.

For Burnham, the priority will be preventing Labour’s former voters from permanently migrating to Reform.

For Farage, the objective will be convincing those voters that their move to Reform should become permanent.

That is the real battle.

The next test

The coming months will reveal whether Burnham’s leadership can genuinely reverse Labour’s decline.

A number of voters who abandoned Labour appear willing to give the party another chance.

But they will expect results.

They will want to know whether Burnham can improve living standards, restore confidence in public services and tackle the issues that pushed them towards Reform in the first place.

If he succeeds, Reform’s spectacular by-election victories could ultimately prove to be the high-water mark of its advance.

If he fails, however, those seven victories could look like the beginning of something much bigger.

And that is why the latest results matter so much.

Reform UK does not need to win every contest.

It simply needs to keep convincing voters that Labour can be defeated.

Every successful by-election strengthens that argument.

Every Labour loss weakens the psychological barrier that once protected the party in its traditional heartlands.

Burnham therefore faces a race against time.

He has inherited a Labour Party that remains deeply vulnerable in parts of England, but he has also inherited an opportunity to rebuild it.

The early signs are mixed.

His personal popularity is stronger than that of his predecessor, Labour has recently moved ahead of Reform in at least one major poll, and his victory in Makerfield demonstrated that the party can still mobilise its traditional supporters.

But Reform’s seven by-election victories cannot simply be brushed aside.

They are evidence of a profound change in British political behaviour.

The old assumption that working-class voters will automatically support Labour has disappeared.

The old assumption that Conservative voters will automatically remain Conservative has disappeared too.

And Nigel Farage’s party has become one of the main beneficiaries.

The political battle now facing Andy Burnham is therefore much bigger than one by-election or seven individual victories.

It is a struggle for the future identity of Britain’s working-class electorate.

If Burnham can persuade those voters that Labour has changed, the party may yet rebuild its coalition.

If he cannot, Reform’s breakthrough could become permanent.

For now, the warning signs are impossible to ignore.

Reform has shown that it can smash through Labour’s traditional defences.

Burnham has shown that he can fight back.

The next stage of Britain’s political battle will determine which of those two stories becomes the defining one.