Reform UK Falls to Third in Lord Ashcroft Poll: A Warning Sign for Nigel Farage
A new opinion poll has delivered a serious warning to Nigel Farage and Reform UK. According to a Lord Ashcroft survey reported by GB News, Reform has fallen to third place, behind both Labour and the Conservative Party. The poll puts Labour on 27 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform UK on only 18 per cent. This represents a six-point increase for Labour, a two-point rise for the Conservatives and a three-point decline for Reform compared with Ashcroft’s previous survey.
The result is particularly striking because Reform UK had previously established itself as one of the most powerful forces in British politics. Nigel Farage’s party had benefited from widespread dissatisfaction with the traditional political parties, particularly among voters concerned about immigration, the cost of living, crime and Britain’s political establishment. The latest figures suggest, however, that the political situation may be changing rapidly.
The poll is also significant because it coincides with the early period of Andy Burnham’s premiership. Burnham has only recently become Prime Minister, but Lord Ashcroft’s research suggests that his arrival has produced a noticeable improvement in Labour’s position. Ashcroft described this as the “Burnham bounce”, noting that Labour has moved ahead in several recent polls after a period when such a recovery seemed difficult to imagine.
The rise of Labour is therefore one of the most important aspects of the survey. Labour’s 27 per cent is six points higher than its previous Ashcroft figure. This indicates that some voters who had become dissatisfied with the party may now be reconsidering their position. Burnham’s political style appears to have played a role in this change. His government has sought to dominate the political agenda with announcements on economic growth, public services, housing and the cost of living.
Political momentum can be extremely important. Voters do not always make decisions based only on long-term ideological preferences. They also respond to whether they believe a government or political leader is competent, energetic and capable of solving problems. Burnham’s early period in Downing Street appears to have generated a degree of optimism that Labour can use to rebuild its support.
The Conservative recovery is equally important. The Conservatives are now second in the Ashcroft poll, with 23 per cent. This is two points higher than in the previous survey. The result will encourage Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and her supporters, particularly after a period in which the party has struggled to distinguish itself from Reform UK.
For much of the recent political debate, Reform has appeared to be the main threat to the Conservatives. Farage’s party attracted many voters who previously supported the Conservatives, particularly those who wanted a tougher position on immigration and national sovereignty. Reform’s rise created a serious strategic problem for the Conservatives because the two parties competed for many of the same voters.
The latest poll suggests that the Conservatives may be recovering some of that support. If this continues, Reform could find it increasingly difficult to present itself as the natural alternative to Labour. A stronger Conservative Party would also make the political right more divided, because voters would have to choose between two competing parties rather than simply supporting Reform as the main opposition force.
However, one poll should never be treated as a definitive prediction of a general election. Voting-intention surveys can move significantly from one month to another, especially when there is no election immediately approaching. Other recent polls have produced different results. For example, a YouGov survey conducted on 9–10 August put Labour on 24 per cent, Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
This demonstrates that Reform’s position is not uniformly collapsing across all polling. Rather, there is evidence that the party’s previous dominance has weakened and that the contest has become much more competitive.
Nevertheless, the Ashcroft poll deserves attention because of the size of the movement. Reform’s fall from 21 per cent to 18 per cent is not insignificant, while Labour’s rise from 21 per cent to 27 per cent is substantial. The figures suggest that voters who were previously attracted to Reform may be reconsidering their choices.
There are several possible explanations.
One is the arrival of Andy Burnham as Prime Minister. The new government has received considerable media attention, and Burnham has attempted to create the impression of an energetic administration willing to address practical problems. Lord Ashcroft’s research found that voters were beginning to form opinions about whether Burnham was on their side, whether he had a clear plan and how his government intended to pay for its promises.
Another explanation is Reform’s own difficulties. The party has faced internal disagreements and questions about its political direction. Its relationship with other right-wing groups has also become increasingly complicated. Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain is attempting to compete for voters who want a more uncompromising nationalist and anti-establishment programme. This creates the possibility that the right-wing vote will become divided.
The question of Nigel Farage’s political strategy is also important. Farage remains one of the most recognisable politicians in Britain and continues to have a strong personal following. Yet recent reporting suggests that his political momentum has weakened compared with the previous year. The Guardian described the Reform leader as a less dominant political force than he had been twelve months earlier, partly because Burnham’s government has taken much of the political and media attention.
Farage’s recent victory in the Clacton by-election demonstrates why the Ashcroft poll should not be interpreted as the end of Reform. He won the seat with 22,239 votes, taking about 63 per cent of the vote. However, the election was highly unusual because the major established parties did not contest it, leaving Farage to face a field dominated by fringe and novelty candidates.
The Clacton victory therefore gives Farage a parliamentary platform but does not necessarily prove that Reform has regained its previous national momentum. A party can be extremely strong in a particular constituency while struggling to expand its support elsewhere.
Another challenge for Reform is policy breadth. Immigration and crime remain central to its political message, but a party seeking to form a government must also convince voters that it can manage healthcare, education, taxation, pensions, housing, defence and the economy. Voters may support Farage’s criticism of the political establishment without necessarily believing that Reform is ready to govern the country.
This may be particularly important as Labour begins to recover. If voters become more confident that Burnham can manage the government effectively, they may feel less need to support Reform as a protest vote. Reform’s success has partly depended on dissatisfaction with established parties. If Labour and the Conservatives improve their public image, some of that protest support could disappear.
The Conservative Party faces a different challenge. Although its position has improved in the Ashcroft poll, it must decide how much of Reform’s agenda it should adopt. Immigration, crime and national identity remain important issues for many Conservative voters. Moving towards Farage’s positions could help the party recover some Reform supporters, but it could also alienate moderate voters who prefer a more traditional Conservative approach.
This creates a three-way competition on the political right. Reform wants to replace the Conservatives, while the Conservatives want to recover voters who moved to Reform. Both parties must also respond to Labour’s recovery.
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes this competition particularly significant. National polling percentages do not translate directly into parliamentary seats. If Reform and the Conservatives divide the right-wing vote in many constituencies, Labour could win seats even without receiving a majority of the vote.
The same principle applies in reverse. If Reform eventually becomes the dominant party on the right and the Conservatives decline further, Reform could potentially win many constituencies with relatively modest percentages. This is why the relationship between Farage and the Conservatives will remain politically important.
For Labour, the latest poll is encouraging but also creates pressure. A six-point increase is impressive, but the party must demonstrate that the improvement is sustainable. Burnham’s early popularity could fade if voters become concerned about taxation, public spending or the government’s ability to deliver its promises. Ashcroft’s research itself indicates that voters are already asking how Labour will pay for its plans.
The poll therefore represents an opportunity rather than a guarantee for Labour. The government must convert positive headlines into tangible improvements in people’s lives. If it succeeds, Reform may continue to lose support. If it fails, voters could quickly return to Farage or the Conservatives.
For Nigel Farage, the message is equally clear. Reform cannot rely entirely on the political weaknesses of Labour and the Conservatives. It needs to maintain its own momentum and demonstrate why voters should choose it even when the traditional parties appear to be recovering.
The internal unity of Reform will also matter. Political parties that appear divided can lose support rapidly, especially when voters are already uncertain about their choices. Farage needs to show that Reform is disciplined, credible and capable of offering a complete alternative government.
In conclusion, the Lord Ashcroft poll is undoubtedly a setback for Nigel Farage. Reform UK falling to 18 per cent, behind Labour at 27 per cent and the Conservatives at 23 per cent, represents a dramatic change from the period when Reform appeared to dominate British political debate.
However, it would be premature to declare that Reform’s political rise is over. Other recent surveys show a much closer contest, and Farage has demonstrated through his Clacton victory that he retains a powerful electoral base.
The more important conclusion is that Britain’s political landscape has become much more competitive. Labour appears to be benefiting from the “Burnham bounce”, the Conservatives are showing signs of recovery, and Reform is facing its first serious test since its rapid rise.
For Farage, the challenge is now to turn attention back towards Reform and convince voters that the party is more than a protest movement. For Labour, the challenge is to prove that its new popularity can survive the pressures of government. For the Conservatives, the opportunity is to rebuild without simply becoming a weaker version of Reform.
The next few months could therefore be crucial. If Labour maintains its lead and the Conservatives continue recovering, Reform may genuinely face a period of decline. But if Burnham’s popularity falls or voters become disappointed with the new government, Farage could quickly regain momentum. The latest poll is a warning—but it is not yet the final verdict on Reform UK’s political future.