The chancellor is struggling to make his Budget sums add up. He may not have to.
John Healey’s Budget may be simply paving the way for something bigger (Image: Getty)
John Healey is desperate to clamp down on speculation about what he’s going to do on October 28. Last week, he batted away questions from journalists asking which taxes he was going to increase. He’ll try to hold the line all the way to Budget day. He’s learned from predecessor Rachel Reeves, as pre-Budget speculation ran riot on her watch. Instead, Westminster is speculating about something else. Not the Budget, but what happens afterwards. They reckon PM Andy Burnham has a plan.
Healey is seen as a safe pair of hands, in marked contrast to Reeves. He will do his level best to turn his maiden Budget into a non-event. Why? Because this one doesn’t matter. It’s a phoney Budget. A counterfeit statement. It’s the next one that counts. We got a sense of this last week, when Healey called a press conference and calmly told us nothing. It’s going to be the same next month. That’s the strategy.
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Right now, Healey is on a knife edge. He keeps telling us he’s committed to fiscal discipline, but then his boss rocks up and starts talking about his big spending plans. Not just the small stuff, like VAT on electricity, the bus fare cap and plans to end rough sleeping. But his big pledges, such as sorting out the social care shambles and council house building spree. They’ll cost tens of billions.
Healey doesn’t have the money. He looks at gilt yields, now climbing towards Liz Truss levels, and knows he daren’t borrow more. Burnham looks at his personal poll numbers, and knows he has to do something. The two men are at cross purposes, but there is solution that might work for both of them. Provided they’re willing to take a gamble.
Burnham is boxed in by Labour’s manifesto. He’s pledged not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT. Those are the three biggest taxes, and if he wants to raise big money, one of them has to increase.
The public will rebel if he trashes a manifesto pledge, which means he has to go to the country to get his mandate. And this is where the phoney Budget comes into it. Healey needs to give him a platform for doing that. So he won’t do anything desperate. No huge tax hikes, no dramatic spending cuts and, when it comes to defence, little new money.
All the big decisions will be pushed down the line, something that’s already becoming a habit with this government. This will be a non-Budget. That suits Healey, and it suits Burnham, because it paves the way for a snap election in the spring.
With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK embroiled in a row over crypto donations and the Tories still to be forgiven for past misdemeanours, that snap election looks ever more tempting to Burnham. He’s still enjoying a bit of a bounce, but it won’t last forever.
If Healey can make it through the Budget without scaring the voters, then Burnham is all clear for spring. One Tory has predicted it will be a “nothingburger” Budget. After Rachel Reeves’ two stomach-churning efforts, many taxpayers will welcome that. But they may not like what follows.
If Burnham calls a snap election and wins it, he’ll be free to increase any taxes he likes, knowing the next election will be five years away. He has another reason to get that snap election done. Reeves left an unfortunate fiscal time bomb, which forces Labour to slash spending in the run up to the 2029 election. It would have blown up in her face. Instead, it’ll crater Healey and Burnham.
Calling an election now would defuse that too. The arguments are stacking up in favour of going to the country. We’ll know after the Budget.
GB News turns tense in explosive migrant clash: ‘Be quiet!’
Presenter Ben Leo fired back at political commentator Matthew Stadlen.
Ben Leo fired back at Matthew Stadlen after he attempted to interrupt him (Image: GB News)
GB News took a tense turn on Sunday (13 September) as presenter Ben Leo clashed with political commentator Matthew Stadlen live on air. Appearing on the programme to discuss the impact of the French deal on the small boats crisis, the duo also reflected on ex-Chancellor George Osborne‘s calls for the UK to rejoin the customs union.
“I suspect that if we were to rejoin the customs union, it would help us economically,” Matthew began. “There’s no doubt that Brexit has harmed us economically – [but] that doesn’t mean I think we should have another referendum.”
“Anyway, despite the anti-Britishness being peddled by your guest Thomas there, we have over the first two quarters, over the first half of this year, the highest growth – it’s not massive growth – but the highest growth in the G7 and that, of course, includes the United States of America,” he continued.
“I’m also astonished to hear from you, Ben, that you think France should be treated as a hostile state,” Matthew noted, firing at the GB News host.
“What would that involve? Does that mean we would get banned from going to France on our summer holidays? How far do you take this?”
“Absolutely,” Ben replied. “There is nothing more serious than what is going on with the small boats crisis,” he declared, before Matthew attempted to cut in, talking over the journalist.
“Hang on, I’m talking now,” Ben snapped back, raising his voice. “You just had a monologue, so be quiet! The national security, there have been thousands of men – we don’t know who they are or where they’re from, what their intentions are – breaking into Britain.
“That should be the number-one national security issue for this nation. If that means severing ties with France politically and economically, I say do it.”
Former Chancellor George Osborne is calling for the UK to rejoin the customs union (Image: Getty)
Following the fiery debate, viewers were quick to respond on X. “@Benleo, that’s the problem with the left, they think they only have the right to speak, and everyone else has to shut up. Sorry @MatthewStadlen, it ain’t happening,” wrote one. “Well done, Ben. Why does GB News have that nasty person on?” added a second.
Among the comments, however, others questioned the journalist’s stance on cutting ties with France. “So there you have it, straight out of Ben Leo’s mouth. We should ban people from going on holiday to France and sever economic ties with France. Has Leo gone completely crazy?” tweeted a third. “Has Ben Leo taken leave of his senses?” quipped a fourth.