Andy Burnham has good reasons to go for broke with a snap election (Image: Getty)
We’ve had small, popular measures, such as cutting VAT on electricity bills, capping bus fares at £2, and vague talk about easing the cost-of-living crisis. Big decisions on defence spending, social care and council house building have been pushed down the road. Many have seen this as a sign of weakness. That Burnham would rather court cheap popularity than tackle the tough decisions facing Britain today. But could it be something else?
There’s growing speculation that our new PM has something else up his sleeve, and is deliberately avoiding anything that could derail it. He’s enjoying his bounce, and would rather build the Burnham brand with voters by pumping out easy-going TikTok videos than start fights he might lose. That’s because he’s saving it up for the big one. A snap general election. Not in the spring, as many have assumed, but in November.
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That could see the nation trudging to the polls in just two months’ time. The more I think about it, the more attractive it must look from Burnham’s point of view. But it relies on a few things going right first. So the PM will have to hold fire, before making his move.
First, we have the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, from Sunday September 27 to Wednesday September 30. Burnham will use it to rally the faithful and deliver a set-piece speech designed to convince the nation he’s prime minister material. If that goes well, he moves onto the second stage of his plan.
On October 8, there’s a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by former PM Keir Starmer stepping down. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is contesting the seat, but if Labour sees off mad Zack, Burnham will feel emboldened to go for the big one. The shortest an election campaign can legally last is 25 working days. The Daily Telegraph has suggested Thursday November 19 as a possible date.
The Budget is due on October 28, so Burnham will have to decide what to do about that. It might be possible to postpone it until after the election. Otherwise, it won’t contain much more than a few basics and cheap giveaways. And Burnham has another reason to go for broke. In fact, I think it’s the strongest of all.
We’re heading towards a winter of discontent. Global inflation and energy prices are soaring, thanks to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. That will drive gas, electricity and food bills even higher, while four predicted interest rate hikes next year could push up mortgage costs too. All of which will make voters very grumpy, and less likely to vote for the incumbent PM.
An early election before the crisis strikes could be a sound pre-emptive move. Especially with Kemi Badenoch growing in authority by the day, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is distracted by rows over donations. If Burnham goes for it and gets his mandate, then we’re in trouble.
Burnham rode his luck to get into Westminster, and will be hoping it holds for a couple more months. But this could be bad luck for the rest of us.
Yesterday, one of Burnham’s former allies warned that he’s leading an old-style socialist tax-and-spend government. Now we could be facing five years of it, if the PM has his way.
If Burnham calls and wins an election, he can ditch Labour’s manifesto pledge not to hike income tax, national insurance and VAT, and really go for it. That’s when the tough decisions will start rolling in. And they’ll be especially tough for taxpayers, who’ll pay the price of a Labour victory. For years.
Andy Burnham on brink of huge decision – and we all face 5 more years of total misery
Andy Burnham is facing a series of major decisions only months after entering Downing Street, with pressure mounting over the economy, taxation, public services and the future direction of the Labour government.
The headline claim that the country faces “five more years of total misery” is a political judgement rather than an established fact. But the difficulties confronting Burnham’s government are real and increasingly difficult to ignore.
Inflation has risen, borrowing costs remain high and the Chancellor, John Healey, is preparing for a challenging Budget on October 28. Burnham has warned that his government will have to make difficult choices as it attempts to keep the economy on a stable path.
The political circumstances are also unusual.
Burnham was previously the long-serving mayor of Greater Manchester before returning to Westminster in 2026. He subsequently became Labour leader and prime minister after Keir Starmer’s resignation earlier this year.
His arrival in Downing Street was accompanied by promises of political change, greater regional power and a different economic model.
Now the difficult part has begun.
From Manchester mayor to Downing Street
Burnham spent almost a decade as Greater Manchester’s directly elected mayor, first taking office in 2017 and winning re-election in 2024.
During his time in Greater Manchester, he became one of the country’s most prominent regional political figures.
His political profile was built partly around devolution — the transfer of powers and decision-making away from Westminster and towards regions.
That philosophy has followed him into national government.
As prime minister, Burnham has argued for a political system in which more decisions are made closer to the communities affected by them.
His government is considering further devolution of powers to regional authorities, including responsibilities involving economic development and public services.
Supporters regard the approach as a way of giving communities greater control over their own economic futures.
Critics have raised questions about the cost and complexity of creating additional layers of regional administration. A recent analysis cited by The Times claimed staffing expenditure across nine combined authorities had increased substantially over five years, although the government and supporters of devolution argue that regional government can improve services and stimulate economic growth.
The economy is the immediate problem
The biggest challenge facing the new government is arguably economic.
Official inflation rose to 3.1% in August 2026, according to reporting on the latest figures. Higher energy and fuel prices have contributed to the renewed pressure on household budgets.
At the same time, government borrowing costs have risen.
That leaves the Chancellor with less room to manoeuvre.
Burnham has attempted to present himself as a leader willing to make difficult fiscal decisions rather than simply increasing spending whenever pressure arises.
Reuters reported that the prime minister had rejected suggestions that his government represented a straightforward return to a traditional tax-and-spend approach. Instead, he said difficult decisions would be necessary to keep the economy on track.
That message could become increasingly important as the October Budget approaches.
Tax rises could become a political flashpoint
The government’s financial position creates a difficult choice.
Ministers have major spending commitments, while the tax burden is already high by historical standards.
At the same time, borrowing costs mean that simply borrowing substantially more money carries its own risks.
Recent financial analysis has suggested that the government’s fiscal headroom has been squeezed by higher debt-interest costs and weaker economic growth.
This creates pressure for decisions that could be politically unpopular.
The government may need to consider some combination of spending restraint, changes to taxation and measures intended to increase economic growth.
Whatever route is chosen, it is likely to produce winners and losers.
That is why the October Budget represents an important moment for Burnham’s administration.
Welfare is another difficult issue
Welfare spending presents another major challenge.
The government is under pressure to control the cost of benefits while avoiding measures that disproportionately affect people who rely on state support.
Burnham has already faced pressure over welfare reform and has resisted proposals to reduce benefits simply to help fund other government priorities.
Meanwhile, ministers are examining reforms to disability benefits and employment support.
The issue is particularly sensitive because expenditure on working-age disability benefits has increased considerably over recent years.
The government therefore faces a difficult balance between encouraging more people who can work into employment and maintaining adequate support for people who genuinely need assistance.
The outcome could have significant consequences for public finances as well as for millions of households.
The public ownership question
Another major decision concerns utilities.
Burnham has made public ownership and greater public control of essential services an important part of his political agenda.
Water is particularly significant.
The government is examining proposals involving regional bodies that could have greater responsibility for overseeing water companies.
Burnham has also discussed the possibility of public ownership of Thames Water.
However, the financial condition of the water sector makes such a policy complicated.
Thames Water has substantial debts, meaning any move towards public ownership could require considerable public resources.
Burnham’s allies have urged him not to dilute his commitment to greater public control, while critics have questioned the cost and practical implications.
The government is expected to publish a longer-term strategy later this year.
Net zero is another major commitment
Burnham has also reaffirmed his commitment to Britain’s net-zero target for 2050.
Writing recently, he argued that climate change is already affecting communities across Britain and called for greater community ownership of renewable energy projects.
His approach links environmental policy with regional economic development.
The argument is that investment in renewable energy can create jobs, rebuild industrial capacity and reduce long-term energy costs.
But energy policy also presents immediate political challenges.
The government must balance its climate commitments with concerns about energy security, household bills and industrial competitiveness.
Decisions involving oil and gas projects such as Rosebank and Jackdaw have already generated political disagreement.
The five-year question
The phrase “five more years” in the headline reflects the length of the political challenge rather than a prediction that Burnham’s government will definitely last that long.
Under Britain’s parliamentary system, governments can remain in office for a full parliamentary term, but political circumstances can change.
Burnham’s immediate priority is therefore not simply winning the next election.
It is demonstrating that his government can deliver improvements while managing difficult economic constraints.
His political programme is ambitious.
He wants to decentralise power, change the relationship between government and essential utilities, pursue economic growth outside London and maintain Britain’s net-zero commitments.
At the same time, he must deal with inflation, government debt, public-service pressures and rising expectations from voters.
Those objectives can sometimes conflict.
The biggest decision may be the Budget
For all the arguments surrounding Burnham’s political agenda, the October Budget could become the clearest test of his government’s approach.
If ministers announce tax increases, they will need to explain why they are necessary.
If they restrain spending, they will face pressure from public-sector groups and campaigners.
If they borrow more, financial markets will scrutinise the government’s plans.
And if they attempt to stimulate growth through investment, the government will need to demonstrate that the spending can eventually generate stronger economic performance.
Burnham therefore faces a narrow path.
His supporters argue that he has the opportunity to reshape the British state and create a more decentralised economic model.
His critics question whether the scale of his ambitions can be financed without placing additional pressure on taxpayers.
A new political era
Burnham’s journey from Greater Manchester mayor to prime minister represents a significant change in Britain’s political landscape.
He entered Downing Street promising to break with established political habits and give greater power to regions.
Now he has to demonstrate that those ideas can work at national scale.
The coming months will reveal much more about what his government actually intends to do.
The decisions on taxation, welfare, public spending, energy, water and devolution will affect households and businesses across the country.
Whether those decisions produce economic improvement or greater pressure is something that cannot be determined in advance.
What is clear is that Burnham’s government has inherited a difficult combination of high expectations and limited financial room.
The political rhetoric of his first months in office is now giving way to the harder business of governing.
The October Budget will be one of the first major opportunities for voters, businesses and financial markets to judge the direction in which the new government is heading.
And as Burnham himself has acknowledged, difficult choices are unavoidable.
The question is not whether his government will have to make them, but which choices it will make — and how their consequences will be felt across Britain.