Outrage as Andy Burnham gives human traffickers ‘early ticket out of prison’
Conservatives are outraged that serious criminals could be back on the streets (Image: Getty)
Andy Burnham’s Government is facing renewed political pressure over its prisoner-release reforms after Conservatives warned that some offenders convicted of human trafficking, modern slavery and related offences could remain eligible for earlier release.
The controversy comes just days before the Government’s new progression model is due to begin operating in England and Wales.
Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy has accused the Prime Minister of giving people convicted of exploiting vulnerable victims an “early ticket out of prison”, arguing that offences connected with trafficking and modern slavery should receive much stronger protection from the new release arrangements.
But the legal position is more complicated than the political rhetoric suggests.
The Government has already introduced a list of offences that are excluded from the progression model. It includes rape, serious child sexual offences, grooming offences, a number of offences involving unlawful killing, indecent assault and several other serious crimes. Modern slavery and human trafficking offences, however, do not appear as a blanket category in the published exclusion list.
That distinction has become the centre of the latest political row.
What the new release system actually does
The Sentencing Act 2026 introduces a new progression model for prisoners serving certain Standard Determinate Sentences.
Under the legislation, eligible prisoners will normally serve at least one third of their sentence in custody, while offenders serving standard determinate sentences for specified more serious offences will have a minimum custodial period of one half.
The remaining part of the sentence is served in the community under licence and supervision. Prisoners who commit disciplinary offences can also have additional time added to their period in custody.
The Government argues that the system is necessary because the prison estate is facing severe capacity pressures.
The Ministry of Justice says the reforms are designed to ensure there is enough space in prisons while maintaining supervision of offenders after release. The official guidance also says victims should be informed about changes to release dates and licence conditions.
The first releases under the new progression arrangements are expected from October 2026.
The Ministry of Justice estimates that the model will operate in a series of release tranches between October 2026 and June 2027.
Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy (Image: Jonathan Buckmaster)
Why trafficking offences have become a flashpoint
Human trafficking and modern slavery occupy a particularly sensitive position within the criminal justice system because the offences can involve prolonged exploitation of vulnerable people.
Trafficking can include arranging or facilitating the movement or exploitation of people for purposes such as forced labour or sexual exploitation.
For victims, the consequences can continue long after an offender has been convicted.
That is why the prospect of eligible offenders receiving earlier release has generated concern among politicians and campaigners.
The Conservative criticism focuses on the fact that the Government’s published exclusions do not create a blanket exemption for every offence involving modern slavery or human trafficking.
However, that does not mean that every person convicted of trafficking will automatically be released early.
The progression model applies only to prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences. Prisoners serving life sentences, Extended Determinate Sentences and certain other forms of sentence are outside the model. The Ministry of Justice says more than 18,000 prisoners serving more serious sentences such as life and Extended Determinate Sentences are already outside its scope.
The precise impact therefore depends on the offence, sentence imposed and legal category of the prisoner.
Conservatives demand tougher exclusions
Nick Timothy has nevertheless argued that the Government should go further.
He accused Burnham of repeatedly changing position over the early-release programme since becoming Prime Minister.
When Burnham entered Downing Street in July, he announced an urgent review of the previous government’s plans.
At the time, he said nobody could deny the pressure on prison places but insisted that he wanted to make sure everything had been considered before the policy proceeded.
That review was followed by changes to the scheme.
In August, the Government announced that rape and serious child sexual offences would be excluded. Additional exclusions covering unlawful killing and indecent assault were subsequently added.
But the changes did not create a universal exclusion covering every offence that might involve violence, exploitation or sexual abuse.
That has left the Government exposed to continued criticism from Conservatives, who argue that the exclusions should be wider.
Timothy has also linked the issue to previous concerns over offenders convicted in grooming-gang cases and domestic-abuse offences.
Those arguments are political claims about the consequences of the policy rather than evidence that every offender in those categories will be released early.
The prison crisis behind the policy
The Government’s defence of the reforms is based primarily on prison capacity.
The Ministry of Justice says it inherited a prison estate under extreme pressure and is attempting to increase capacity while changing how sentences are administered.
The Government has committed to creating 14,000 additional prison places by 2031.
The immediate problem, however, is that building new prisons takes years, while the demand for prison places exists now.
That was illustrated in August when an emergency “capacity gold command” was reportedly activated after prison numbers again approached critical levels following revisions to the early-release policy. Sky News reported that the emergency system monitors available cells and movements across the prison estate when capacity reaches critical levels.
The situation explains why ministers have been reluctant to abandon the progression model entirely.
Earlier reporting indicated that thousands of prisoners were expected to become eligible for earlier release under the new system. Sky News previously reported estimates of around 7,000 releases across the first year under the original arrangements, although subsequent exclusions changed the expected numbers.
The Ministry of Justice has subsequently published its own tranche estimates as part of an effort to provide greater transparency about the numbers affected.
Victims are at the centre of the argument
The Government insists that victims must remain central to the new system.
Official guidance says victims should be given information about changes to an offender’s release date and licence conditions. It also explains that released prisoners will be subject to supervision and can face restrictions in the community.
The Government has also promised tougher controls, including increased electronic monitoring and restrictions designed to reduce risks from offenders after release.
But critics argue that supervision in the community is not equivalent to imprisonment.
That difference is particularly important for victims of offences involving prolonged exploitation.
A person released from custody can be subject to licence conditions, monitoring and recall to prison if conditions are breached. Nevertheless, the offender is no longer physically confined to prison.
For victims and their families, that distinction can have considerable practical and emotional consequences.
Burnham’s political problem
The controversy also comes at a difficult point in Burnham’s premiership.
He has been in Downing Street for only around two months, but his Government has already faced several difficult decisions involving the economy, public spending, prisons and public services.
Burnham has said he is prepared to make difficult decisions to keep the economy on track as inflation and borrowing costs put pressure on the Government’s finances.
The prison system presents a similar dilemma.
Abandoning early-release measures could increase pressure on already crowded prisons.
Proceeding with them creates political pressure whenever a serious offender becomes eligible for release.
That means the Government has to balance several objectives simultaneously: maintaining prison capacity, protecting the public, respecting victims, supervising offenders and expanding the prison estate.
The question over modern slavery
The latest dispute therefore turns on a relatively precise question.
Should offences involving human trafficking and modern slavery be added explicitly to the list of crimes excluded from the progression model?
At present, the published Government exclusion list includes numerous serious sexual and violent offences but does not list modern slavery and trafficking as a blanket exclusion.
That leaves Parliament and ministers with a potential policy choice.
The Government could maintain the existing framework and assess offenders according to their sentence type and individual circumstances.
Alternatively, ministers could expand the exclusion list if they conclude that particular trafficking and slavery offences should receive the same treatment as other crimes already excluded.
Such a decision would have consequences for prison capacity, because every additional category removed from the early-release system means more people remaining in custody.
That is precisely the practical problem the Government is trying to solve.
A debate that is unlikely to disappear
The political argument over early release is therefore unlikely to end with the introduction of the progression model.
As the first tranches begin from October, individual cases will provide a clearer picture of how the rules work in practice.
For victims, the critical issue will be whether offenders are properly supervised and whether licence conditions provide meaningful protection.
For the Government, the challenge will be demonstrating that prison capacity can be managed without undermining public confidence in the justice system.
For the Conservatives, the focus is likely to remain on offences they believe should be excluded from earlier release.
And for Burnham, the controversy presents a difficult balancing act.
The Prime Minister has already intervened once to alter the inherited policy. His Government has excluded a number of the most serious offences, while retaining the broader progression model to address prison capacity.
The claim that Burnham has simply “given human traffickers an early ticket out of prison” is therefore a political characterisation rather than a description of every trafficking case under the law.
What is established is that the new system changes release arrangements for eligible prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences, while the Government has created specific offence exclusions. Human trafficking and modern slavery are not currently a blanket exclusion category in the published list.
The coming months will show how many offenders convicted of relevant offences actually fall within the new framework, how courts’ sentence types affect eligibility, and whether ministers decide that further exclusions are necessary.
For Burnham’s Government, the central test will be whether it can relieve pressure on Britain’s prisons while convincing victims, police, courts and the public that public protection remains at the heart of the system.