Nigel Farage is leading Reform to an astonishing rise in popularity (Image: Getty)

Former Tory peer Malcolm Offord is Reform’s Scottish leader (Image: Getty)

The Conservatives have 10% support in constituencies and 11% in the regional list.

The Scottish Greens are on 9% in constituencies and 12% on the list, while the Lib Dems are on 10% and 9% respectively.

The poll is a blow to Sir Keir Starmer, who is facing questions over his leadership ahead of the May elections, which are expected to be a bloodbath for Labour.

Reform UK Surges Ahead of Labour in New Scottish Poll Ahead of Crunch Election

Reform UK’s rapid rise in Scotland has become one of the most closely watched developments in British politics, with new polling showing the party challenging Labour for second place in a political landscape that has traditionally been dominated by the Scottish National Party.

The rise of Nigel Farage’s party represents a significant change in Scotland’s political balance. For decades, the SNP, Labour and Conservatives have occupied the central positions in Scottish electoral politics, while smaller parties have competed for a more limited share of the vote. Reform’s emergence has changed that picture, putting pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives while creating a new political force among voters dissatisfied with the established parties.

Recent polling before the 2026 Scottish Parliament election showed just how rapidly Reform had gained ground. In an Ipsos poll conducted in early April, Labour and Reform were both on 15% for the constituency vote, while the SNP remained significantly ahead on 39%. On the regional list vote, Reform was on 16%, one point ahead of Labour.

Earlier YouGov polling had already placed Reform in second position behind the SNP. Its January 2026 survey gave Reform 20% of the constituency vote and Labour 15%, while Reform also stood at 20% on the regional list vote compared with 15% for Labour.

These figures illustrate why Reform’s Scottish performance attracted so much attention ahead of the election.

A Major Shift in Scotland

Scotland has traditionally been a difficult environment for right-wing parties.

The SNP has dominated Holyrood politics for much of the devolved parliament’s existence, while Labour historically held many Scottish Westminster seats before the SNP’s breakthrough in 2015.

The Conservatives became the principal unionist challenger to the SNP in the later 2010s, particularly during the Brexit and independence debates.

Reform’s growth introduces another competitor.

The party has attempted to appeal to voters concerned about immigration, taxation, public services, government spending and Britain’s constitutional arrangements. Its message has found support among some voters who previously backed the Conservatives, Labour and other parties.

The scale of the change was highlighted by YouGov’s final modelling before the Holyrood election. Its MRP projected 19 Reform MSPs, compared with 17 for Labour and seven for the Conservatives. The model projected the SNP as the largest party with 62 seats, although it fell short of the 65 needed for an outright majority.

The projection was not a prediction of the final result in itself, but it demonstrated how dramatically Reform’s position had changed compared with previous Scottish elections.

Labour’s Difficult Position

For Scottish Labour, Reform’s rise creates an additional challenge.

The party has historically been one of Scotland’s major political forces, but its position has weakened considerably since the SNP’s rise.

The 2026 Holyrood election confirmed that difficult position. According to YouGov’s post-election analysis, Labour returned only 17 MSPs, its lowest number at a Scottish Parliament election. Reform also won 17 seats, meaning the two parties shared second place in terms of seats.

That result gives added significance to polling showing Reform competing directly with Labour.

The challenge for Labour is particularly complicated because its electoral coalition has historically included voters with very different political priorities. Some are strongly focused on public services and economic issues, while others are motivated by questions surrounding the constitution and Scotland’s relationship with the rest of the United Kingdom.

Reform approaches many of these questions from a very different perspective.

Its emphasis on immigration and opposition to aspects of the political establishment has enabled it to attract voters who might previously have remained within the Conservative or Labour camps.

Immigration and Reform’s Appeal

Immigration has been particularly important to Reform’s support.

Ipsos’ post-election research provides evidence of this. Among people who voted Reform in the 2026 Scottish Parliament election, 76% said immigration was an important factor in their decision. That compared with 28% of Conservative voters, 18% of Labour voters and 15% of SNP voters.

This does not mean immigration was the only issue motivating Reform voters.

Ipsos found that perceptions of the SNP government’s performance were the most commonly cited reason for voting Reform, mentioned by 55% of its constituency voters. The NHS was the most important issue overall among Scottish voters, while independence remained another major concern.

The findings demonstrate that Reform’s support cannot be explained by a single issue.

Instead, its voters combine concerns about government performance, immigration, public services and political change.

The Conservatives Under Pressure

Reform’s rise has also affected the Conservative Party in Scotland.

The Conservatives had established themselves as the principal unionist opposition to the SNP during the late 2010s and early 2020s. However, the emergence of Reform has created competition for voters who favour parties opposed to Scottish independence and who are also concerned about immigration and national political issues.

The final Ipsos poll before the 2026 Holyrood election put the Conservatives on 11% for the constituency vote, with Reform on 18% and Labour on 20%. On the regional list, Reform was also on 18%, compared with 11% for the Conservatives.

The eventual election result underlined the Conservatives’ difficulties. YouGov’s analysis found that the party won only seven MSPs, while Labour and Reform each won 17.

The figures illustrate the increasingly fragmented nature of Scottish politics.

Instead of a straightforward SNP-versus-Labour contest, voters now have several significant parties competing for support.

Reform’s Breakthrough

Reform’s breakthrough is especially notable because the party had previously had a limited presence in Scottish electoral politics.

Its growth before the 2026 election was therefore one of the campaign’s most closely watched developments.

YouGov’s final MRP suggested that Reform could win 19 MSPs, representing a major breakthrough compared with its previous representation.

The final result produced 17 Reform MSPs, confirming that the party had become a significant force at Holyrood.

YouGov subsequently described the 2026 election as a major shake-up of Scotland’s party system, highlighting the SNP’s continued dominance alongside significant gains for Reform and the Greens and losses for Labour and the Conservatives.

For Farage and Reform’s Scottish leadership, the result provided evidence that the party’s support was no longer confined primarily to England.

A Different Political Battlefield

Scotland also presents Reform with challenges that are less prominent elsewhere in Britain.

The question of independence remains central to Scottish politics.

While Reform strongly supports the United Kingdom, the SNP continues to advocate Scottish independence. The Greens also support independence, while Labour and the Conservatives remain unionist parties.

Ipsos found that independence was the second-most important issue for Scottish voters overall after the NHS, with 34% mentioning it as a factor in their voting decision. Among SNP constituency voters, the figure was 62%.

Reform therefore has to operate in a political environment where constitutional identity remains much more important than in many parts of England.

Its strategy has been to emphasise issues such as immigration, public services and government performance rather than attempting to compete directly with the SNP’s independence agenda.

What the Polling Means

The phrase “surges ahead of Labour” needs to be interpreted carefully because Scottish polling varies according to the type of election and voting system.

The Scottish Parliament uses a mixed electoral system involving constituency and regional list votes. Consequently, a party’s percentage on one type of ballot does not automatically translate into an equivalent number of seats.

Furthermore, individual polls can produce different results depending on methodology and fieldwork dates.

The January YouGov poll, for example, put Reform ahead of Labour on both constituency and regional list voting intention.

Ipsos’ final pre-election poll in May, however, placed Labour ahead of Reform on the constituency vote, although Reform remained close behind.

This is why polling should be treated as a snapshot of opinion at a particular moment rather than as a definitive measure of future electoral results.

The Bigger Picture

The most important development is not simply whether Reform is one or two percentage points ahead of Labour in a particular survey.

It is the broader transformation of Scotland’s political landscape.

The 2026 election demonstrated that Reform had become a significant parliamentary force in Scotland. Labour’s decline and the Conservatives’ reduced representation have created space for a new political contest involving several parties.

The SNP remains the largest political force, but the competition below it has become much more intense.

Labour faces the challenge of rebuilding its Scottish identity and reconnecting with voters who have moved towards other parties. The Conservatives face competition from Reform among some unionist voters. Reform, meanwhile, must demonstrate that its new support can be maintained beyond a single election cycle.

The party’s supporters have shown that they are capable of turning polling support into actual votes and parliamentary representation. Ipsos’ post-election study found that Reform was particularly successful at maintaining consistency between constituency and list votes: 85% of those who voted Reform on their constituency ballot also supported the party on the regional list.

That provides an important insight into the nature of Reform’s Scottish support.

A New Chapter for Scottish Politics

Reform UK’s rise marks a new chapter in Scotland’s political story.

The party’s breakthrough has challenged assumptions about which parties can compete for significant numbers of Scottish votes. It has also complicated the position of Labour and the Conservatives, both of which now face competition from a party campaigning on a distinct combination of immigration, government reform, public spending and unionist themes.

For Nigel Farage, Scotland represents an important test of whether Reform can build a genuinely UK-wide political organisation.

For Scottish Labour, the rise of Reform adds another obstacle to rebuilding its position.

And for Scottish voters, the growing number of competitive parties means that political choices are becoming increasingly fragmented.

The 2026 Holyrood election has already demonstrated that Reform’s rise is more than a temporary polling story. The party won 17 seats and finished level with Labour in parliamentary representation, while the SNP retained its position as the largest party.

The longer-term significance of that transformation will depend on whether Reform can maintain its support and develop a lasting presence in Scottish politics.

What is beyond dispute is that the old three-way assumptions about Scotland’s political landscape have changed. Reform has entered the contest in a substantial way, Labour is facing a difficult period of rebuilding, and the SNP continues to dominate the largest share of the Scottish electorate.

Scotland’s political map has therefore become more fragmented, more competitive and considerably harder for the traditional parties to navigate.

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