UK Support for Rejoining EU Reaches Record 61%, Polling Expert Sir John Curtice Warns Labour
Support for Britain rejoining the European Union has reached its highest sustained level since the 2016 Brexit referendum, but political experts caution that a future campaign would face sharp electoral hurdles.
Polling data compiled by veteran analyst Sir John Curtice shows that an average of recent surveys puts the rejoin side at 61 per cent among decided voters.
The remaining 39 per cent favor staying outside the bloc, giving the pro-rejoin movement a commanding 22-point advantage.
The figures mark a striking reversal from the original 52-48 vote that initiated Britain’s departure nearly a decade ago.
Yet, as public sentiment shifts, Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government faces mounting pressure over how to handle its growing European ambitions without igniting old political divisions.
The Demographic Shift Driving the Rejoin Lead
The widening gap in polling is largely the result of generational change rather than mass conversions among original voters.
Data indicates that roughly 18 per cent of those who backed Leave in 2016 now support rejoining, while about 11 per cent of former Remain voters have moved in the opposite direction.
Instead, the electorate itself has transformed.
A decade of younger citizens reaching voting age has introduced a demographic that overwhelmingly favors EU membership.
Simultaneously, older generations, who formed the bedrock of the Leave vote, have seen natural attrition.
Non-voters from the original referendum who have since engaged with the political process also lean heavily toward rejoining, altering the baseline of the British electorate.
Why the 61% Lead Might Be Vulnerable
Despite the substantial polling lead, Curtice warns that headline figures would likely narrow once a real electoral campaign began.
A future referendum would not simply replicate the binary choice of 2016.
Britain previously held specific exemptions, including staying out of the euro and the Schengen travel area.
Re-entering the bloc would require fresh negotiations with Brussels, and terms could differ significantly from past arrangements.
Opponents would likely center their campaigns on thorny issues such as financial contributions, freedom of movement, and adoption of the single currency.
While current respondents express support for rejoining in principle, a formal negotiation process would introduce complex economic and sovereignty questions that have yet to be tested under campaign scrutiny.
Public Perception of Brexit’s Economic Impact
The growing appetite for closer European ties coincides with increasingly negative assessments of Brexit’s practical consequences.
Research from the National Centre for Social Research indicates that 69 per cent of the public believes Britain’s economy is worse off as a result of leaving the EU.
Only 9 per cent think the economy has benefited.
Even among original Leave voters, 38 per cent now agree that the economic outcome has been negative, a stark contrast to pre-referendum expectations.
Public anxiety has also shifted regarding immigration, with 54 per cent saying Brexit increased overall immigration levels rather than reducing them.
However, analysts note that economic dissatisfaction remains a far stronger driver of changing voting intentions than immigration concerns, while national sovereignty remains a powerful motivator for remaining outside the bloc.
Labour’s Balancing Act on the European Reset
Prime Minister Andy Burnham has pursued a strategy of closer cooperation with Brussels while explicitly ruling out a return to the EU, the single market, or the customs union.
His government has focused on practical adjustments, such as reducing trade barriers for food and drink exports and negotiating youth mobility frameworks.
Curtice argues that this cautious approach leaves the administration politically vulnerable.
He warned that without active leadership defending these changes, figures like Nigel Reform leader and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will successfully frame any closer ties as an attempt to undermine the 2016 result.
Balancing public demand for stronger European cooperation with the risk of reviving bitter partisan battles remains one of Labour’s most delicate policy challenges.
What Happens Next
As polling consistently shows a strong majority favoring rejoining, the political debate is unlikely to fade.
While Labour maintains its opposition to reopening membership negotiations, shifting demographics and deteriorating economic perceptions of Brexit continue to keep the question alive in Westminster.
Whether the government can successfully navigate its practical reset without triggering a broader constitutional confrontation will depend heavily on how public opinion evolves as economic pressures persist.
How do you think the British government should balance the growing public support for closer European ties with the commitments made after the 2016 referendum?
UK EU Rejoin Support Hits Record 61% as Sir John Curtice Warns Labour
A decade after Britain’s historic Brexit referendum, support for rejoining the European Union has reached its highest sustained level since the 2016 vote, according to polling analysis by Professor Sir John Curtice.
The latest figures suggest that 61 per cent of people choosing between the two options would now vote for Britain to rejoin the EU, compared with 39 per cent who would choose to remain outside the bloc. Curtice has described the figure as the highest average level of support for rejoining recorded over an extended period since the original referendum.
The figures have immediately reignited the debate over Britain’s long-term relationship with Europe.
They also present a difficult political question for Labour.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government has pursued a closer relationship with the European Union while stopping short of advocating full membership. The strategy is based on improving the UK’s post-Brexit relationship with Brussels without formally reversing Brexit.
Curtice’s warning is that Labour may eventually have to do more than quietly negotiate practical improvements.
If public attitudes are changing, he argues, political parties could influence that shift further by openly making the case for their preferred approach.
But he has also cautioned against assuming that today’s polling would automatically translate into victory in another referendum.
A Remarkable Shift in Public Opinion
The latest 61 per cent figure is striking because the question of EU membership remains deeply connected to Britain’s political history.
In the 2016 referendum, 51.9 per cent of voters chose Leave while 48.1 per cent voted Remain.
Since then, the political environment has changed significantly.
A large group of younger voters who were too young to participate in the 2016 referendum has entered the electorate.
Curtice has pointed to demographic change as one of the major reasons for the movement in public opinion. He noted that younger voters are heavily inclined towards rejoining, while some older voters who were more likely to have supported Leave have died since the original referendum.
This does not mean that most original Leave voters have changed their minds.
According to Curtice’s analysis, only around 18 per cent of people who voted Leave in 2016 now say they would vote to rejoin.
Similarly, around 11 per cent of former Remain voters now say they would choose to stay outside the EU.
The changing balance therefore appears to be influenced substantially by generational replacement and differences between age groups.
The Ipsos Evidence
Other polling provides evidence of a similar shift, although the exact numbers vary according to the wording of the question.
Ipsos research published in June 2026 found that 52 per cent of Britons thought the UK should apply to rejoin the European Union, compared with 33 per cent who believed Britain should remain outside.
Among likely voters in a hypothetical future referendum, 58 per cent said they would vote to rejoin and 37 per cent would vote to stay out. Once undecided respondents were removed, that produced the same 61 per cent to 39 per cent division.
The Ipsos research also showed that attitudes remain strongly divided along political and demographic lines.
Among current Labour voters, 84 per cent supported applying to rejoin.
By contrast, 71 per cent of Reform UK voters said they would vote to stay outside the EU.
Age was another significant dividing line: 68 per cent of 18-to-34-year-olds supported rejoining, while half of those aged 55 and over preferred remaining outside.
These differences demonstrate why the headline 61 per cent figure needs careful interpretation.
It indicates a substantial change in public opinion, but it does not mean Britain has reached a settled national consensus.
Curtice’s Warning to Labour
For Labour, the political significance of the figures lies in what happens next.
Curtice has argued that the public has shifted towards rejoining despite political parties largely avoiding the issue.
For much of the period since Brexit, Labour’s leadership has been reluctant to reopen the fundamental question of EU membership.
Instead, the party has concentrated on improving Britain’s relationship with the EU.
That has included seeking closer cooperation in areas such as trade, food exports and youth mobility.
Curtice’s argument is that political silence itself may have contributed to the situation.
If voters have received relatively little sustained campaigning for rejoining, he suggests that there may still be considerable scope for political arguments to influence opinion.
This creates an unusual situation.
A significant section of the electorate may now favour rejoining, yet the largest governing party is not advocating it.
Labour’s Brexit Strategy
The Labour government’s approach has been deliberately cautious.
Rather than promising to reverse Brexit, ministers have sought what they describe as a closer and more constructive relationship with European partners.
The strategy is designed to address practical problems created by Britain’s departure while accepting that the UK remains outside the EU.
The government has emphasised economic cooperation and efforts to reduce unnecessary barriers.
A future UK-EU summit is expected to consider areas including food and drink exports and youth mobility. Curtice has argued that Labour’s challenge is not simply negotiating these arrangements but explaining to voters why they matter.
His criticism is therefore partly about political communication.
A government can negotiate a new agreement with Brussels, but if it does not clearly explain the benefits to voters, it risks allowing opponents to define the meaning of the policy.
That could become particularly important as the next general election approaches.
Why Rejoining Would Still Be Complicated
Despite the headline polling, returning to the EU would not simply mean recreating Britain’s pre-Brexit relationship.
Membership would involve negotiations with the European Union and potentially difficult questions about the terms of accession.
Curtice has specifically highlighted public uncertainty over issues such as whether a future UK government seeking membership would have to accept the euro or join the Schengen travel area.
Those concerns demonstrate that a referendum campaign would involve considerably more than asking whether people are satisfied with Brexit.
Voters would need to consider what a return to the EU would actually mean.
That is why Curtice has warned that a future referendum could still be “on a knife edge”.
The current polling provides an indication of public sentiment under current voters would decide after a sustained campaign involving immigration remains a major concern among the British public and that support for EU membership becomes more complicated when people are presented with specific circumstances.
It does not establish what voters would decide after a sustained campaign involving detailed arguments about immigration, sovereignty, trade and membership conditions.
Immigration Remains a Key Issue
Immigration is likely to be one of the most important complications in any future debate.
Brexit was partly driven by arguments about freedom of movement and Britain’s ability to control immigration.
Any proposal to rejoin the EU would therefore inevitably reopen questions about how free movement would operate and what arrangements would apply to British citizens and European nationals.
Ipsos has noted that immigration remains a major concern among the British public and that support for EU membership becomes more complicated when people are presented with specific trade-offs involving immigration and freedom of movement.
This is an important qualification to the headline polling.
People may support closer economic and political cooperation with Europe while having reservations about particular conditions attached to full membership.
A future referendum campaign could therefore produce a very different political conversation from a simple “Leave versus Remain” question.
The Generational Divide
One of the most important features of the current debate is the difference between generations.
Younger voters are significantly more supportive of EU membership than older voters.
This does not necessarily mean that every young person is pro-EU or that every older person opposes rejoining.
But the aggregate difference is substantial.
Over time, demographic change can therefore alter the electoral landscape without individual voters changing their opinions.
That almost half of Britons supported holding another referendum on EU membership, although the precise level depended on when such a referendum was proposed. question is whether ministers will become more vocal helps explain why support for rejoining can rise even though most people who participated in the original referendum remain broadly consistent in their views.
For Labour, this presents both an opportunity and a risk.
A more pro-European position could appeal strongly to younger voters.
But it could also reopen divisions among older voters and communities that supported Brexit.
The Challenge for Andy Burnham
Andy Burnham faces a particularly complicated calculation.
His government wants to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU.
But a formal commitment to rejoin would represent a much more fundamental change.
The Prime Minister would need to explain not only the economic benefits but also the political and constitutional consequences.
He would also need to address voters who regard the 2016 referendum as a democratic decision that should be respected.
Opposition parties would almost certainly use any move towards rejoining as evidence that Labour was attempting to reverse Brexit.
Curtice has specifically warned that if Labour fails to explain and defend its European policy, politicians such as Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch could argue that the government is ignoring the 2016 result.
That means the political communication strategy could be almost as important as the policy itself.
The Reform UK Factor
Reform UK remains an important part of the equation.
Nigel Farage has built much of his political identity around Britain’s departure from the EU.
A Labour government openly advocating rejoining would provide Reform with a clear dividing line.
The party could present itself as defending the outcome of the 2016 referendum.
That does not mean voters would necessarily respond in one particular way.
But it would create a highly visible political conflict.
For Labour, the question is therefore whether the potential support gained among pro-European voters would outweigh the political difficulties created by reopening the Brexit debate.
Curtice’s research does not answer that question.
It instead demonstrates that public opinion has moved significantly since 2016.
What Does “Rejoin” Actually Mean?
Another complication is the difference between support for rejoining in principle and support for a specific membership arrangement.
The phrase “rejoin the EU” can mean different things to different voters.
Some may imagine a close economic relationship.
Others may support full political membership.
Some may accept free movement.
Others may prefer restrictions.
Some voters may support membership only if Britain retains certain exemptions or special arrangements.
Those distinctions would become critical during any future negotiation.
This is why polling numbers should not be interpreted as a complete policy mandate.
They show where public sentiment currently stands when voters are asked a particular question.
They do not resolve the detailed terms of a future UK-EU settlement.
A Political Opportunity or a Political Trap?
The latest figures nevertheless ensure that Brexit is unlikely to disappear from British politics.
Ten years after the referendum, public attitudes have clearly changed.
Ipsos found that almost half of Britons supported holding another referendum on EU membership, although the precise level depended on when such a referendum was proposed.
At the same time, Curtice’s warning about a future vote being close demonstrates that high current support for rejoining should not be confused with a guaranteed outcome.
Political campaigns can change perceptions.
Arguments about immigration, sovereignty and economic consequences could shift voters in either direction.
The framing of the question could also matter.
What Comes Next?
For Burnham and Labour, the immediate issue is unlikely to be announcing a policy of full EU membership.
Instead, the government is expected to continue pursuing closer practical relations with Brussels.
The political question is whether ministers will become more vocal in explaining why those changes are necessary.
Curtice believes they will eventually need to make that case openly if they want public support for a deeper relationship.
That could become increasingly important as Britain approaches another general election.
The debate over Brexit is no longer the same debate Britain had in 2016.
The electorate has changed.
The economy has changed.
Britain’s relationship with Europe has changed.
And public opinion has shifted.
But the fundamental political divisions have not completely disappeared.
The latest 61 per cent to 39 per cent figure represents a striking snapshot of where opinion stands today among those choosing between rejoining and staying out.
It does not, however, settle the question of Britain’s future.
For Andy Burnham, the challenge will be deciding how far to take the country’s European reset while convincing voters that any new relationship with Brussels serves Britain’s interests.
For Sir John Curtice, the lesson from the polling is that public opinion has moved significantly — but that any future referendum would still have to be won through a political argument.
And for Britain, the Brexit debate may be entering another chapter rather than reaching its conclusion.