Nigel Farage has led Reform UK to many by-election gains (Image: Getty)
Reform UK has stormed to yet another by-election triumph just a week away from crunch local polls. County councils across the country are holding votes next Thursday, with ballots also taking place in London and for the Scottish and Welsh parliaments.
But in the Tenbury ward for Malvern Hills District Council on Thursday, Reform snapped up a previously safe Conservative seat by taking a jaw-dropping 45% of the vote. The Tory and Green share of the vote plummeted by 7% and 8.6% respectively, with Labour not even fielding a candidate for the April 30 poll. Reform home affairs spokesman Zia Yusuf welcomed the news, posting on X: “Another big win for Reform! Taking another previously ‘safe’ Tory seat.
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“Straight in at 45%. Don’t believe the fake polls.”
National polls have suggested that Reform’s lead over the Tories and Labour has narrowed in recent weeks, but Mr Yusuf doubts support for his party has slumped.
A national YouGov poll conducted on April 26 and 27 puts Reform on 26%, with the Tories on 19%, Labour on 18%, the Greens on 15% and Liberal Democrats on 13%.
A seat projection shows that would give Mr Farage’s party 296 MPs compared to 88 for Labour, 71 for the Tories and 77 for the Lib Dems.
That would make Reform by far the largest party and cause a political earthquake, but still short of an overall parliamentary majority.
Reform’s standing has soared since the 2024 General Election, just as Sir Keir Starmer’s popularity has plummeted to record lows amid a series of scandals and controversial policies.
Over the past year, Mr Farage’s party has gained 68 seats in council by-elections, by far more than any of its opponents.
Labour, by contrast, has lost 54 seats in by-elections as rumours swirl over Sir Keir’s leadership.
Reform Storms to Stunning By-Election Victory in Huge Boost for Nigel Farage
Reform UK has secured a striking victory in a local by-election in Nottinghamshire, taking a council seat that had been held by the Conservatives for more than two decades. The result has been welcomed by Nigel Farage as evidence of growing support for his party, while Conservative figures have been left facing fresh questions about their position in traditional Tory territory.
The result came in East Markham, a ward on Bassetlaw District Council in the constituency of Newark, represented by Reform UK’s shadow chancellor Robert Jenrick. Reform candidate Matthew Evans won 436 votes, almost half of all ballots cast. The Conservatives finished second with 250 votes, while Labour received 151 and the Greens 42.
For Reform, the significance of the result lies not simply in gaining one council seat. The party had not previously held the ward, while the Conservatives had dominated it for years. The result therefore provides another example of Reform competing directly with the Conservatives in areas where the Tories have historically been strong.
A Major Swing in a Former Conservative Stronghold
The figures illustrate how dramatically the balance changed.
At the previous local election in 2023, the Conservatives won around 66 per cent of the vote in East Markham and held a lead of roughly 45 percentage points over Labour. In the latest contest, the Conservative share fell to about 28 per cent, while Reform won almost 50 per cent. Reform UK described the change as a 44-point swing from the Conservatives to Reform.
Such a swing is politically significant even though this was a local council by-election rather than a parliamentary election.
By-elections can be influenced by local personalities, turnout, individual campaigns and the circumstances surrounding a particular vacancy. They therefore cannot automatically be treated as direct forecasts of a future general election.
Nevertheless, results in traditionally Conservative areas are closely watched because Reform has repeatedly attempted to persuade former Conservative voters that it represents an alternative on the political right.
Farage Celebrates the Result
Nigel Farage quickly highlighted the result as an important moment for his party.
The Reform leader described the victory as an “excellent win” in Robert Jenrick’s constituency and pointed to the sharp fall in the Conservative vote. He also used the result to make a broader argument about the future of the Conservative Party.
Farage’s reaction reflects one of Reform’s central political objectives: challenging the Conservatives for voters who prioritise immigration, taxation, national sovereignty and dissatisfaction with established political parties.
For Reform, victories such as East Markham offer an opportunity to demonstrate that its support is not confined to parliamentary constituencies where it already has established strength.
A Blow for the Conservatives
The result also presents a difficult political message for the Conservatives.
The party had held East Markham for more than 20 years. Losing the ward therefore represents a substantial change from the area’s previous electoral pattern.
Robert Jenrick, whose Newark constituency contains the ward, acknowledged the scale of the result. He described it as an “incredible” swing from the Conservatives to Reform and praised the successful Reform candidate.
For Conservative strategists, the challenge is broader than a single council ward.
The party has been attempting to rebuild its electoral coalition following major losses and competition from Reform. If Reform continues to attract voters who previously supported the Conservatives, the Tories face the strategic question of how to compete for those voters without losing support elsewhere.
That tension is likely to remain important as both parties develop their policies and prepare for future elections.
Reform’s Growing Local Presence
Reform UK has increasingly focused on local elections and council representation as it attempts to build an organisation capable of competing beyond Westminster.
Winning council seats gives a party representatives in local government and creates opportunities to establish a presence in communities where it previously had little institutional support.
The East Markham result is therefore useful to Reform not only as a headline but also as part of its wider effort to develop a local political organisation.
The party’s leadership can point to the result when arguing that its electoral appeal is extending into areas where Conservatives once enjoyed a substantial advantage.
However, the long-term significance of the result will depend on whether Reform can repeat such performances across different wards and constituencies.
Why By-Elections Matter
A by-election is a special type of electoral contest.
Unlike a scheduled general or local election, it is usually triggered by a particular event, such as a councillor’s resignation or death. Turnout can be lower, and voters may approach the contest differently from a normal election.
That means the East Markham result should be understood in its specific context.
The result demonstrates what happened in one ward on one particular polling day. It does not establish that the same level of support would necessarily occur across Nottinghamshire or the country as a whole.
At the same time, political parties closely monitor by-elections because they can reveal changes in voter behaviour before larger elections take place.
The Wider Reform Momentum
The East Markham victory came shortly after several other developments that have kept Reform UK at the centre of Britain’s political debate.
In August, Farage won a parliamentary by-election in Clacton after resigning his seat and triggering the contest himself. Official parliamentary results show that he received 22,239 votes, while Count Binface finished second with 9,455. The contest attracted 34 candidates, while the main Westminster parties did not field candidates.
The Clacton result was therefore very different from East Markham.
In Clacton, Farage was defending a parliamentary seat in a contest in which the major parties largely stayed out. In East Markham, Reform was attempting to take a council seat from the Conservatives.
The two victories should consequently not be treated as identical measures of support.
They do, however, demonstrate the different levels at which Reform is now competing.
Farage’s Position Has Also Faced Challenges
The latest council victory comes at a time when Farage himself has faced political and media scrutiny.
His Clacton by-election was triggered after he resigned from Parliament while facing an investigation by the parliamentary standards watchdog concerning a £5 million gift from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne.
The investigation was suspended during the election campaign and automatically resumed after Farage returned to the Commons. The parliamentary authorities have not established that Farage breached the rules; the investigation is intended to determine whether the relevant rules were broken.
That distinction is important when assessing the political environment surrounding Reform.
Farage has maintained that he did nothing wrong, while the investigation remains a separate institutional process.
His return to Parliament nevertheless means that Reform’s national political strategy continues to be closely linked to its leader.
The Conservative-Reform Contest
The East Markham result also illustrates the increasingly complicated relationship between Reform and the Conservatives.
Both parties seek support from voters on the political right, but they have different histories and organisational structures.
The Conservatives are a long-established governing party with extensive experience in national and local government. Reform is a newer political organisation that has positioned itself as an alternative to the established parties.
For Conservative politicians, the danger is that Reform can attract enough support to divide the right-of-centre vote.
For Reform, the challenge is turning electoral breakthroughs into sustained political representation.
The East Markham victory gives Reform another example to cite when arguing that it can challenge the Conservatives directly.
What the Result Does — and Does Not — Show
The strongest conclusion that can be drawn from the election is straightforward: Reform UK won a previously Conservative-held council ward by a substantial margin.
Matthew Evans received 436 votes, compared with 250 for the Conservatives, 151 for Labour and 42 for the Greens.
The result also shows that the Conservatives’ previous dominance of the ward was not maintained in this contest.
But it would be premature to treat one local by-election as a definitive measure of Britain’s national political direction.
Turnout, candidate selection, local issues and the absence or presence of particular parties can all influence individual by-elections. The result therefore needs to be considered alongside other local election results, national polling and future contests.
A Significant Moment for Reform
Even with those qualifications, the East Markham result gives Reform UK a useful political moment.
The party can point to a large vote share in a ward where it had not previously been the dominant force. It can also point to the Conservatives’ dramatic decline from their previous level of support.
For Farage, that provides another opportunity to argue that Reform is challenging the established political order and competing for voters who once regarded the Conservatives as their natural political home.
For the Conservatives, the result underlines the continuing importance of competition from Reform and the difficulty of rebuilding support in former strongholds.
For Labour and the Greens, the result is another reminder that contests between the Conservatives and Reform can dominate some parts of the electoral map.
Ultimately, East Markham was a local by-election, not a national vote. But its unusually large shift in support makes it a result that the parties will study closely.
The immediate political headline belongs to Reform UK and Matthew Evans. The longer-term question is whether the party can turn isolated victories into a durable presence across local government and future parliamentary contests. That will depend on how voters respond in subsequent elections, rather than on any single by-election result.