Nigel Farage’s enemies will be hoping pollsters found his weakness (Image: Getty)

Farage has a golden opportunity to create a foreign policy untethered from Europe but also one no longer riding on the coattails of Washington. As a Singapore resident, I confirm the UK retains immense (perhaps unearned) goodwill in much of the Commonwealth.

Never mind jumping back into bed with a sclerotic and pensionable EU meanwhile, post-Brexit Britain ought to link up – both economically and geopolitically – with the Commonwealth, beginning with the other Realms which share Charles III as king, such as Australia, Canada, Jamaica and New Zealand.

The UK is either the world’s fifth or sixth largest economy, jumping to third if lumped together with the CANZUK states of Australia, Canada and New Zealand. If Britain won’t look ‘East of Suez’ then who exactly are we subcontracting this job to? The US and France?

Finally, foreign policy is innately intertwined with immigration and trade, both of which will be critical in the first term of a Farage government. So whether or not the Trump link could damage Reform is moot. The bigger question is what can Reform now do to rejuvenate the UK on the world stage? Let’s face it, such a plan is long overdue.

Reform UK’s enemies hope Achilles’ Heel will hurt them – but I’d wager they’re wrong

Reform UK has spent much of the past year trying to turn political momentum into a durable electoral organisation. Its rapid rise has unsettled Labour, the Conservatives and other parties, but the pressures facing Nigel Farage’s movement have also become increasingly visible.

The party’s critics have focused heavily on what they see as its vulnerabilities: Farage’s personal popularity, internal disagreements, funding controversies, competition from other parties on the right and the difficulty of transforming strong national polling into a broad constituency-by-constituency coalition.

Yet Reform’s position is more complicated than a simple story of decline. Recent polling has shown a fall from the very high levels recorded by the party during parts of 2025, but Reform remains a significant force in British politics. The central question is whether its weaknesses will prevent further expansion or whether the party can adapt before the next general election.

Farage remains both the party’s greatest asset and its biggest vulnerability

One of the most frequently discussed weaknesses is the extraordinary degree to which Reform is associated with Nigel Farage.

Farage has spent decades building a distinctive political profile. His supporters regard that visibility as essential to Reform’s appeal, while critics argue that concentrating so much attention on one politician creates a structural problem: anything that damages Farage’s reputation can also affect perceptions of the party.

Polling provides evidence for both sides of that argument.

YouGov reported in July that 65% of Britons viewed Farage unfavourably, compared with 25% who viewed him favourably. The same research found that 50% regarded him as decisive, while only 16% considered him trustworthy.

By September, YouGov reported that 69% had an unfavourable opinion of Farage, the highest figure recorded by its tracker over the previous decade.

Those numbers matter because Reform’s political strategy depends heavily on Farage’s ability to attract attention and voters. If his personal ratings deteriorate, opponents naturally see an opportunity.

But there is another side to the argument. Farage’s political career has repeatedly demonstrated that high levels of controversy do not necessarily prevent him from generating political attention. His personal profile remains considerably larger than that of most Reform figures.

That makes the question less about whether Farage is popular with everyone and more about whether Reform can broaden its support beyond people already attracted to him.

The polling setback is real — but it is not the whole story

Reform’s recent polling decline is one of the clearest pieces of evidence available to its opponents.

Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford reported in September that Reform’s average support across nine pollsters had fallen from the low thirties in August 2025 to the mid-twenties a year later.

A YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 put Labour on 23%, with Reform and the Conservatives both on 21%. It was the first time in 18 months that YouGov had recorded the Conservatives level with Reform.

Ipsos’ September polling similarly placed Labour ahead of Reform, with Labour on 27% and Reform on 23%.

These figures demonstrate that Reform’s earlier polling surge has not continued uninterrupted.

However, national voting-intention figures do not automatically translate into parliamentary seats. Britain uses a constituency-based electoral system, meaning the geographical distribution of support is crucial.

That is why Reform’s opponents will be watching not only national percentages but also constituency-level evidence, tactical voting and the party’s ability to build local organisations.

Tactical voting could be a significant obstacle

One of the most important developments in September has been the evidence surrounding tactical voting.

YouGov’s latest research found that in a hypothetical constituency where Labour and Reform were the only viable contenders, 41% of voters said they would support Labour compared with 26% for Reform.

In a Conservative-Reform contest, the figures were 35% for the Conservatives and 20% for Reform.

YouGov also found that between 63% and 68% of Liberal Democrat and Green voters said they would tactically support Labour in order to prevent Reform from winning in their constituency.

This is potentially important because Reform’s support may be substantial nationally while remaining geographically uneven.

The first-past-the-post system rewards concentrated support. A party can win a large national vote share without winning many constituencies if its voters are distributed inefficiently.

Equally, tactical voting is not guaranteed. Voters can change their minds, local candidates matter, campaigns matter and perceptions of which parties are genuinely competitive can change during an election.

Therefore, the YouGov findings describe current attitudes rather than a fixed electoral outcome.

Reform also faces competition from its right

Another potential weakness is that Reform no longer operates in an environment where it can assume that every right-leaning protest voter will remain within its coalition.

Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain has attempted to attract some voters who might otherwise consider Reform. The existence of another challenger on the right creates the possibility of divided support.

At the same time, the Conservatives are attempting to recover voters lost during Reform’s surge.

Recent polling showing the Conservatives level with Reform illustrates why this matters. The political contest on the right is no longer simply Reform versus Labour. There is also a battle for voters between Reform, the Conservatives and smaller movements.

That creates both risks and opportunities for all of them.

Money gives Reform an unusual opportunity

Perhaps the strongest counterargument to those predicting difficulties for Reform is the scale of resources now available to the party.

The Guardian reported that Reform has received £72 million from cryptocurrency billionaires Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne, with Farage planning a substantial expansion of the party’s professional organisation. The plans reportedly include hundreds of campaign staff and new constituency operations.

This could address one of the traditional weaknesses of insurgent parties: organisation.

Winning votes nationally is one thing. Maintaining hundreds of constituency campaigns, recruiting candidates, identifying supporters, organising volunteers and getting voters to polling stations requires a substantial infrastructure.

Reform’s financial resources potentially give it the ability to build that infrastructure well before the next general election.

However, the money has also generated controversy. Reuters reported that two senior Reform figures stepped down in September following an undercover investigation concerning allegations surrounding foreign funding of political polling. Reform denied wrongdoing and said it had been targeted in a hoax.

The funding issue therefore represents both an organisational advantage and a political vulnerability.

Internal unity may prove just as important as money

Reform’s rapid expansion has also produced questions about how a relatively new political organisation manages internal disagreements.

The Guardian reported in August that disputes had emerged around figures including Zia Yusuf and activist Tim Montgomerie, while questions were also being raised about the highly centralised nature of Farage’s leadership style.

A growing party inevitably becomes more complicated.

When a movement is small, political decisions can be made quickly and messaging can remain tightly controlled. As membership, elected representatives, councillors and professional staff increase, competing priorities become harder to avoid.

Reform therefore faces a familiar challenge for insurgent parties: maintaining the energy and simplicity that helped create its breakthrough while developing the structures required to operate as a serious national organisation.

The real test is whether Reform can broaden its coalition

Perhaps the most important question is not whether Reform has weaknesses. It clearly does.

The more consequential question is whether those weaknesses prevent the party from expanding beyond its existing coalition.

The Times recently highlighted an internal tension within Reform’s support base: some voters are attracted to lower taxes and deregulation, while others want stronger public services, greater economic security and tighter immigration controls.

That creates a difficult balancing act.

Robert Jenrick has helped push economic policies involving substantial spending reductions and tax changes, while Farage continues to emphasise immigration, national sovereignty and political disruption.

The party needs these different messages to coexist without alienating voters who agree with one part of its programme but not another.

That is not an impossible task. Major political parties frequently contain competing factions and voter groups.

But Reform’s rapid growth means it has less time than established parties to resolve those tensions.

Why opponents should not assume the problem will solve itself

The argument that Reform’s weaknesses will automatically destroy its momentum would therefore be premature.

The evidence shows genuine vulnerabilities: declining polling compared with 2025, weak personal ratings for Farage, tactical-voting pressures, competition from the Conservatives and Restore Britain, controversies surrounding funding, and the challenge of building a large national organisation.

But the same evidence shows why the party remains relevant.

Reform still commands around one-fifth of the vote in several major polls. It has substantial financial resources, a highly recognisable leader, an expanding network of councillors and an ability to dominate political debate on issues such as immigration and government spending.

Its opponents may hope that the party’s “Achilles’ heel” eventually becomes decisive. Whether that happens will depend on events that have not yet occurred.

The next stage of Reform’s development will therefore be less about headlines and more about organisation, candidate quality, local campaigning, policy coherence and the ability to persuade voters who currently regard the party with suspicion.

For Farage, the challenge is especially clear. The political profile that helped build Reform also exposes the party to the consequences of every controversy surrounding its leader.

But that does not mean the weakness is fatal.

Reform’s recent difficulties are real, and its polling position is materially different from the extraordinary levels recorded during parts of 2025. Yet British politics remains unusually fragmented, and the party possesses resources and political visibility that many new movements never achieve.

The coming months will reveal whether Reform can convert those advantages into a broader coalition — or whether the vulnerabilities now being highlighted by its opponents become increasingly difficult to overcome.

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