Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Kemi Badenoch would lead Britain’s second biggest party, bumping Nigel Farage into third place, if an election was called today according to a new poll. Meanwhile Prime Minister Andy Burnham would need to call in help from the Liberal Democrats or Zack Polanski’s Green Party to keep his job.
Polling from YouGov suggests that Mrs Badenoch’s Conservative Party could gain seats, improving on their disastrous 2024 General Election result. Mr Farage’s Reform UK would have a good day at the polls as well, storming up to 123 seats but leaving no party on the Right large enough to kick Labour out of Downing Street.
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The latest poll breaks down results seat by seat and creates a headache for Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.
Having moved over to Reform UK earlier this year, the pair are predicted to lose their respective seats to their old party, the Conservatives.
New data also reveals that even with a pact stitched up after polling day, neither Reform nor the Tories would be able to form a majority even when allied.
Labour would face a bloodbath, collapsing from 403 seats and losing 162 as Mr Burnham’s polling “bounce” fails to mean they can stay in power alone.
Mr Burnham would need to do a deal with both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, meaning he could rely on Sir Ed Davey’s 71 seats and nine Mr Polanski is expected to take home.
Such a deal would likely mean Mr Burnham would need to compromise with a party whose policies include legalising cocaine.
The poll, one of the most comprehensive conducted since the election, marks a low point for Reform when compared to other data which normally had them ahead.
A similar poll by the same firm last year showed Reform UK on 311 seats and therefore able to form a government.
Now they have dropped into third place, showing that in a split race, the result can go either way and fortunes can rapidly reverse.
Kemi Badenoch celebrates huge breakthrough as mega-poll shows her beating Nigel Farage
Kemi Badenoch has been handed a significant boost by a series of polls showing the Conservative Party recovering ground against Reform UK and, in one important measure, Badenoch opening a clear lead over Nigel Farage.
The development comes at a crucial moment for the Conservatives. For much of the period since the 2024 general election, Reform UK has frequently occupied the position of the stronger party on the political right in national polling, while the Conservatives have struggled to recover from their historic election result.
Recent figures, however, suggest that the gap between the two parties has narrowed substantially.
A YouGov survey conducted in September found that Badenoch was preferred to Farage by 51 per cent to 22 per cent when respondents were asked which of the two would make the better prime minister. The poll represented a substantial change from the position a year earlier, when the two leaders were much closer on the same question.
The latest findings do not establish that the Conservatives will outperform Reform UK at a future general election. They do, however, provide evidence that Badenoch’s personal standing and the Conservative position have changed in some measures of public opinion.
Badenoch opens a substantial lead over Farage
The YouGov head-to-head measure is particularly notable because it asks voters to compare the two leaders directly.
In August, 42 per cent of Britons said Badenoch would make a better prime minister than Farage, compared with 26 per cent who selected Badenoch in the comparison with Andy Burnham.
Against Farage, however, Badenoch’s advantage was considerably larger.
YouGov reported that 51 per cent backed Badenoch and 22 per cent backed Farage in the head-to-head question. The Conservative leader’s advantage had increased from 24 points at the end of July to 29 points in the latest measurement.
The change was also visible among people who voted Conservative and Reform in 2024.
Among Conservative voters, 65 per cent preferred Badenoch to Farage, while 18 per cent preferred the Reform leader.
More significantly, YouGov found that some Reform voters had become more receptive to Badenoch. The proportion of 2024 Reform voters choosing Farage in the comparison had fallen from 73 per cent to 56 per cent over the previous year, while the share choosing Badenoch increased from 4 per cent to 23 per cent.
These figures provide an important part of the story behind the headline.
But they measure perceptions of the two leaders, rather than votes in an actual election.
The Conservatives have also caught Reform in voting intention
Another YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 found the Conservatives and Reform UK tied at 21 per cent in national voting intention.
Labour remained narrowly ahead on 23 per cent.
The result was significant because the Conservatives had not previously been level with Reform in YouGov’s voting-intention series for approximately 18 months.
The poll also showed the Greens on 14 per cent, the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent and Restore Britain on 4 per cent.
The figures demonstrate how fragmented British politics has become.
Rather than a straightforward Labour-versus-Conservative contest, several parties now compete for substantial portions of the electorate.
For Badenoch, the Conservative recovery therefore has particular importance because Reform’s rise has changed the traditional political geography of the British right.
A second poll shows the same direction
The trend is not confined to YouGov.
More in Common’s latest polling, published on September 23, put Labour on 26 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform UK on 22 per cent.
Reform’s 22 per cent represented its joint-lowest level in that poll’s series over the previous 18 months, while the Conservatives had stabilised at a higher level than earlier in the year.
The difference between the parties was small, meaning that individual polling movements should not be treated as evidence of a settled political realignment.
Nevertheless, the repeated appearance of the Conservatives around or slightly above Reform in recent surveys is notable.
It is particularly relevant for Badenoch because her leadership strategy has included rebuilding the Conservative Party rather than attempting to imitate Reform UK on every issue.
Farage remains a major political figure
The recent polling should not be interpreted as evidence that Farage has disappeared as a major political force.
Reform continues to record substantial support in national polling.
Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford recently described Reform as Labour’s strongest current challenger while also noting that Farage and his party faced significant challenges in convincing voters that they were ready for government.
Farage’s personal ratings have, however, deteriorated.
YouGov reported in September that 69 per cent of Britons viewed Farage unfavourably, while just 24 per cent viewed him favourably. The 69 per cent figure was the highest unfavourable rating recorded for him by YouGov’s tracker.
That is relevant when considering Badenoch’s improvement in head-to-head comparisons.
The Conservative leader does not necessarily need to persuade voters to become enthusiastic Conservative supporters in order to benefit from a decline in Farage’s personal popularity.
Some voters may simply become more willing to consider the Conservatives as an alternative to Reform.
Badenoch still faces her own challenges
The polling also shows that Badenoch’s position is far from universally positive.
YouGov’s September favourability figures found that 47 per cent of Britons viewed Badenoch unfavourably, compared with 32 per cent who viewed her favourably.
Ipsos produced a similar picture.
Its September 10-15 survey found that 28 per cent were satisfied with Badenoch’s performance as Conservative leader, while 46 per cent were dissatisfied.
On the question of whether she was ready to become prime minister, 22 per cent agreed and 50 per cent disagreed.
These numbers illustrate why a positive development in one polling measure should not be treated as an overall assessment of a political leader.
Badenoch has improved her position against Farage in direct comparisons, but substantial numbers of voters remain unconvinced about her leadership.
The Conservative Party is still rebuilding
The Conservatives are attempting to recover from the 2024 general election, when the party suffered one of its worst results in modern history.
The challenge is not simply to regain voters from Reform.
The party must also rebuild support among voters who moved to Labour, the Liberal Democrats, Greens and other parties.
That makes Badenoch’s task complicated.
A strategy aimed at winning back Reform voters could potentially create difficulties elsewhere, while a strategy focused on moderate or centrist voters could risk losing support on the right.
Recent polling suggests that some of the Conservatives’ former voters are returning from Reform, but it remains unclear how durable that movement will be.
YouGov has identified both the Conservative recovery and Reform’s decline as part of a broader change in the political landscape.
Tactical voting adds another complication
The fragmentation of the right is particularly important because British elections are decided constituency by constituency.
A party can receive a significant national vote share without translating that support into a comparable number of parliamentary seats.
YouGov’s latest tactical-voting research demonstrates how voters may behave differently when asked to choose between specific parties in a constituency.
In a hypothetical constituency contest between Reform and the Conservatives, 35 per cent said they would support Badenoch’s party compared with 20 per cent for Farage’s party.
YouGov also found that 26 per cent of voters would support the Conservatives specifically to prevent Reform from winning, compared with only 2 per cent who would choose Reform over the Conservatives in the same scenario.
Those figures are not predictions of election results.
They simply demonstrate that tactical considerations can substantially change voter choices when the contest is narrowed to two parties.
The wider political picture remains unsettled
The latest polling also shows why it would be premature to interpret Badenoch’s improvement as a decisive change in Britain’s political direction.
Ipsos’s September poll still placed Labour ahead of both Reform and the Conservatives, with Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 23 per cent and the Conservatives on 21 per cent.
It also found Andy Burnham preferred as prime minister by 35 per cent, compared with 15 per cent for Badenoch and 14 per cent for Farage.
This creates a complicated picture.
Badenoch performs considerably better than Farage in a direct comparison, yet Burnham remains ahead of both Conservative and Reform leaders on the broader prime-ministerial preference question.
The Conservatives have also not yet overtaken Labour in the main national voting-intention measures.
Why the result matters for Badenoch
Even with those qualifications, the latest figures give Badenoch something her party has struggled to demonstrate consistently since the 2024 election: evidence that Reform UK can be challenged from the right without the Conservatives simply disappearing from the contest.
That is politically important.
For much of the past two years, Farage’s party has been able to present itself as the principal alternative for voters dissatisfied with the Conservatives.
The latest surveys suggest that this relationship is no longer as straightforward.
Badenoch’s personal lead over Farage in the YouGov head-to-head, combined with the Conservatives’ 21 per cent showing against Reform’s 21 per cent, provides her party with evidence that its support base can recover.
But the numbers also show that the Conservative recovery is incomplete.
The next test will be whether the movement lasts
The most important question is whether these results represent a temporary shift or a longer-term change in voter behaviour.
Polls measure public opinion at particular points in time. They can move because of political events, leadership performances, controversies, economic developments and changes in campaign attention.
Reform has also faced recent controversy surrounding allegations about its finances and donations, which the party has denied. YouGov found that perceptions of Reform as “sleazy” remained high in September, while Farage’s personal unfavourability reached a record level in its tracker.
At the same time, the Conservatives remain under pressure to demonstrate that they offer a distinctive programme capable of attracting voters beyond their existing base.
For Badenoch, therefore, the latest figures represent an opportunity rather than a settled outcome.
Her strongest evidence of progress comes from the direct comparison with Farage and from the Conservatives’ improved position in some voting-intention polls.
Whether that translates into sustained support will depend on what happens next.
For now, the political landscape has become more competitive on the right. Farage remains a prominent figure, Reform retains significant support, and Labour continues to lead several national polls.
But Badenoch has gained ground in a measurement that matters greatly to her political strategy: voters’ assessment of her relative to Farage.
That is the basis for the “breakthrough” described in the headline — a measurable change in the polling picture, rather than evidence that the next election has already been decided.