Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are set to overtake Reform UK, as Andy Burnham’s Labour faces a hung parliament according to a new YouGov poll.
Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Kemi Badenoch would lead Britain’s second biggest party, bumping Nigel Farage into third place, if an election was called today according to a new poll. Meanwhile Prime Minister Andy Burnham would need to call in help from the Liberal Democrats or Zack Polanski’s Green Party to keep his job.
Polling from YouGov suggests that Mrs Badenoch’s Conservative Party could gain seats, improving on their disastrous 2024 General Election result. Mr Farage’s Reform UK would have a good day at the polls as well, storming up to 123 seats but leaving no party on the Right large enough to kick Labour out of Downing Street.
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The latest poll breaks down results seat by seat and creates a headache for Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.
Having moved over to Reform UK earlier this year, the pair are predicted to lose their respective seats to their old party, the Conservatives.
New data also reveals that even with a pact stitched up after polling day, neither Reform nor the Tories would be able to form a majority even when allied.
Labour would face a bloodbath, collapsing from 403 seats and losing 162 as Mr Burnham’s polling “bounce” fails to mean they can stay in power alone.
Mr Burnham would need to do a deal with both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, meaning he could rely on Sir Ed Davey’s 71 seats and nine Mr Polanski is expected to take home.
Such a deal would likely mean Mr Burnham would need to compromise with a party whose policies include legalising cocaine.
The poll, one of the most comprehensive conducted since the election, marks a low point for Reform when compared to other data which normally had them ahead.
A similar poll by the same firm last year showed Reform UK on 311 seats and therefore able to form a government.
Now they have dropped into third place, showing that in a split race, the result can go either way and fortunes can rapidly reverse.
Andy Burnham savaged as one in five UK working age adults now on benefits
Critics warn it is “unfair to taxpayers footing the bill” and Britain “can’t afford” it.
Andy Burnham is under pressure to get a grip on the benefits bill. (Image: Getty)
One in five working-age Brits is on universal credit, according to new research. Some 7.3 million people aged between 20 and 64 in England and Wales were receiving the benefit as of May 2026, the analysis by the Taxpayers’ Alliance found.
That includes 3.3 million under 40, with 1.3 million in their 20s. The research showed that 54 council areas have a quarter of the working-age population on benefits, which are for people who are jobless or on a low income to help with living costs.
William Yarwood, campaigns director at the TaxPayers’ Alliance, said: “In some places, dependency on universal credit has become endemic.
“Generations are being dumped on benefits: written off and condemned to a life of dependency as ministers make it harder for them to find a job.
“If Andy Burnham was serious about growth in every postcode, he would be making it more affordable to hire young people.”
Councils with the highest proportion of older people on universal credit are concentrated in London, including more than half of those in their 50s and 60s in Tower Hamlets.
Coastal towns such as Thanet, Great Yarmouth and Hartlepool tend to have more younger people on benefits.
Blackpool was the local authority with the largest share of the working-age population claiming universal credit at 35.2%.
Tory shadow work and pensions secretary Helen Whately warned it is “unfair to taxpayers footing the bill” and that Britain “can’t afford” it.
She added: “I’ve been to benefit hotspots like Blackpool, where welfare has become a way of life. This has to stop. A generation of talent is also being wasted when young people sign up for welfare instead of starting work.
“It’s clear Andy Burnham — like his predecessor — does not have the backbone to reform welfare. He said himself he puts social security before national security.”
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson said: “Three-quarters of the increase in Universal Credit cases since July 2024 is driven by people moving from legacy benefits – a transition started by the previous Government.
“Many people receiving Universal Credit are already in employment, and our reforms will go further to tackle the perverse incentives that discourage work, and we’re investing £3.5 billion in employment support for disabled people and people with long-term conditions.
“We’re putting work and opportunity at the heart of the system, and the final recommendations from the Timms and Milburn Reviews will lay the foundation for sustainable reform.”