Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Kemi Badenoch would lead Britain’s second biggest party, bumping Nigel Farage into third place, if an election was called today according to a new poll. Meanwhile Prime Minister Andy Burnham would need to call in help from the Liberal Democrats or Zack Polanski’s Green Party to keep his job.
Polling from YouGov suggests that Mrs Badenoch’s Conservative Party could gain seats, improving on their disastrous 2024 General Election result. Mr Farage’s Reform UK would have a good day at the polls as well, storming up to 123 seats but leaving no party on the Right large enough to kick Labour out of Downing Street.
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The latest poll breaks down results seat by seat and creates a headache for Tory defectors Robert Jenrick and Suella Braverman.
Having moved over to Reform UK earlier this year, the pair are predicted to lose their respective seats to their old party, the Conservatives.
New data also reveals that even with a pact stitched up after polling day, neither Reform nor the Tories would be able to form a majority even when allied.
Labour would face a bloodbath, collapsing from 403 seats and losing 162 as Mr Burnham’s polling “bounce” fails to mean they can stay in power alone.
Mr Burnham would need to do a deal with both the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, meaning he could rely on Sir Ed Davey’s 71 seats and nine Mr Polanski is expected to take home.
Such a deal would likely mean Mr Burnham would need to compromise with a party whose policies include legalising cocaine.
The poll, one of the most comprehensive conducted since the election, marks a low point for Reform when compared to other data which normally had them ahead.
A similar poll by the same firm last year showed Reform UK on 311 seats and therefore able to form a government.
Now they have dropped into third place, showing that in a split race, the result can go either way and fortunes can rapidly reverse.
Kemi Badenoch Celebrates Huge Breakthrough as Mega-Poll Shows Her Beating Nigel Farage
Kemi Badenoch has been handed a significant boost by the latest YouGov polling, with the Conservatives moving ahead of Reform UK in a constituency-by-constituency projection and Badenoch maintaining a substantial lead over Nigel Farage in a separate head-to-head question about who would make the better prime minister.
The findings mark an important change in the political landscape on the British right. For much of the period since the 2024 general election, Reform UK has been ahead of the Conservatives in national polling, with Farage presenting his party as the principal challenger to Labour. The latest figures indicate that the contest between Reform and the Conservatives is considerably closer than it had been.
However, the polling does not show the Conservatives on course for an overall parliamentary majority. Instead, YouGov’s latest MRP model projects a hung parliament, with Labour remaining the largest party.
That distinction is crucial when assessing what the latest numbers actually mean for Badenoch and Farage.
Conservatives move ahead of Reform in the mega-poll
The most striking finding comes from YouGov’s September 2026 MRP, which models how votes might translate into parliamentary constituencies if a general election were held immediately.
The central projection puts Labour on 241 seats, the Conservatives on 130 and Reform UK on 123. The Liberal Democrats are projected to win 71, while the SNP, Plaid Cymru and Greens would also return MPs.
For Badenoch, the Conservative figure is significant because it places her party ahead of Farage’s Reform UK in projected Westminster representation.
Reform’s projected 123 seats would nevertheless represent a substantial increase from the five MPs the party won at the 2024 general election. The Conservatives, meanwhile, would remain close to their 2024 result of 121 seats in the central YouGov projection.
The figures therefore describe a changing balance on the right rather than a straightforward Conservative revival to government.
The model’s central estimate still leaves Labour 85 seats short of the 326 required for an overall majority. YouGov says its model produces a range of possible outcomes, meaning the central projection should not be treated as a prediction of an actual future election result.
Badenoch’s personal numbers against Farage
The headline about Badenoch “beating” Farage also has a separate polling basis.
YouGov’s August survey asking voters who they believed would make the better prime minister found that Badenoch held a 29-point advantage over Farage in their direct head-to-head comparison. YouGov noted that the gap had increased from 24 points at the end of July and that the two leaders had been much closer in earlier polling.
That is a different measurement from the MRP.
The MRP estimates parliamentary seats from constituency-level voting intentions. The head-to-head question measures respondents’ views of individual political leaders.
Both are relevant to Badenoch’s position, but neither establishes what would happen at a future general election.
Indeed, YouGov’s wider August polling showed that Andy Burnham was preferred to both Badenoch and Farage when respondents were asked who would make the better prime minister. In the Burnham-Farage comparison, 52% chose Burnham and 22% chose Farage.
This means Badenoch’s improvement relative to Farage should not be confused with evidence that she is currently the most preferred candidate for Downing Street.
A difficult period for Reform UK
The latest numbers arrive after a period of political controversy surrounding Reform UK.
YouGov’s September favourability tracker found that 69% of Britons viewed Farage unfavourably, compared with 24% who viewed him favourably. YouGov described the 69% figure as the highest unfavourable rating recorded for Farage in its ten-year tracker.
Badenoch’s figures were also negative, although less so. Forty-seven percent of respondents viewed her unfavourably while 32% viewed her favourably.
The difference suggests that the Conservative leader has not suddenly become broadly popular across the country.
Instead, the data indicate that she has strengthened her position relative to Farage at a time when the Reform leader’s personal ratings have weakened.
That distinction could become increasingly important if Conservative and Reform candidates continue competing for many of the same voters.
National voting intention remains close
A separate YouGov poll conducted on September 20 and 21 found Labour on 23%, with both the Conservatives and Reform UK on 21%. The result represented the first time in 18 months that YouGov had recorded the Conservatives level with Reform.
The Greens were on 14%, the Liberal Democrats on 12% and Restore Britain on 4%.
This illustrates how narrow the gap has become.
The Conservatives do not currently have a large lead over Reform in national support. Instead, Badenoch’s party has drawn level after Reform previously enjoyed a more substantial advantage.
YouGov attributed the movement to several factors, including changes in party support, the emergence of Restore Britain and controversy surrounding Reform.
The poll was conducted among 2,286 people, giving a useful snapshot of public opinion at that moment, but it remains a poll rather than an election result.
Tactical voting adds another dimension
YouGov’s research into tactical voting provides additional evidence that the relationship between Conservative and Reform support is changing.
In a hypothetical constituency where only the Conservatives and Reform UK were realistically capable of winning, 35% of voters said they would support the Conservatives compared with 20% who would choose Reform.
That represents a four-point increase for the Conservatives and a four-point decline for Reform compared with YouGov’s February study.
The movement becomes particularly notable among voters who currently support other parties.
Among Labour voters, 43% said they would back the Conservatives in a Conservative-Reform contest in order to prevent Reform from winning, while only 2% would do the opposite.
Among Liberal Democrat voters, 49% said they would vote Conservative in a constituency where the Conservatives and Reform were the only realistic contenders.
These figures should not be interpreted as conventional voting intention. Tactical questions describe hypothetical two-party contests and can produce very different results from a normal ballot involving several parties.
Nevertheless, they show that some voters who would not ordinarily support Badenoch’s party might consider doing so in a direct contest with Farage’s party.
The right remains divided
The latest MRP also demonstrates why the question of cooperation between the Conservatives and Reform remains politically important.
With the Conservatives projected on 130 seats and Reform on 123, the two parties together would have 253 seats in YouGov’s central model.
That would still leave them well below the 326 seats needed for an overall Commons majority.
Badenoch has previously rejected proposals for a formal alliance with Reform, while Farage has repeatedly argued that Reform should seek to replace rather than simply cooperate with the Conservative Party.
The latest numbers therefore do not resolve the strategic question facing Britain’s right.
Instead, they demonstrate that both parties have substantial support but remain separated by competing political identities, leadership styles and policy approaches.
What the figures mean for Badenoch
For Badenoch, the immediate significance is that the Conservatives are no longer clearly behind Reform in every major measure.
The MRP puts the Conservatives ahead in projected seats. National voting intention has the two parties level. Tactical polling gives the Conservatives an advantage in a direct constituency contest with Reform. And YouGov’s head-to-head leadership polling has shown Badenoch ahead of Farage by a sizeable margin.
Taken together, these findings provide evidence that the Conservatives have improved their relative position against Reform during 2026.
But they also reveal the limits of that improvement.
The Conservatives remain far from an overall majority in the YouGov projection, while Labour remains the largest party. The national vote-share gap between the Conservatives and Reform is narrow, rather than decisive.
Moreover, Badenoch’s own favourability rating remains underwater, with more people viewing her negatively than positively.
A changing political battlefield
The political significance of the latest polling may therefore lie less in the question of whether one leader has definitively defeated another and more in the fact that the contest between the Conservatives and Reform is becoming increasingly competitive.
For Farage, the challenge is maintaining Reform’s support while facing questions about leadership, party organisation and public perceptions.
For Badenoch, the challenge is converting improved relative polling into sustained support while establishing a distinctive Conservative offer.
The two parties are competing for overlapping groups of voters, but the latest YouGov research suggests that their relationship with the electorate is not static.
The September MRP provides one particularly important snapshot: Labour remains the largest projected party, while the Conservatives have moved ahead of Reform in the central estimate.
That is a meaningful development for Badenoch, but it is not an electoral verdict.
The next stage of the political contest will depend on how voters respond to the parties’ policies, leadership and campaigning over time. With national support tightly grouped and a future general election not yet underway, the latest polling provides evidence of a changing political landscape rather than a settled outcome.