Nigel Farage suffered a loss in Gorton and Denton (Image: Getty)

The Green Party’s Hannah Spencer won the by-election (Image: Getty)

It follows disappointment for Mr Farage in the Caerphilly by-election for the Welsh Parliament, where Reform pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign but lost to nationalists Plaid Cymru.

In both cases, Labour suffered humiliating defeats in previously-safe seats. But Mr Farage did not benefit.

But Reform’s problem is that voters have more than once choice. Mr Farage and his team are one option, but others include the Greens.

There are plenty of people who used to vote Labour and would never vote Conservative because they come from families, or entire communities, that have traditionally hated the Tories.

But the same taboo about supporting Reform doesn’t exist. So these voters could switch to Reform – but they might also switch to the Greens.

He’s actually making a good start. Far from being fanatical about the free market, Reform say they are willing to intervene to protect important industries such as steel or carmakers.

He could also offer a little more support to lower-income families in some of those northern and Midland seats where voters may desert Labour – and this is something he’s already talking about.

Ensure our latest politics headlines always appear at the top of your Google Search by making us a Preferred Source. Click here to activate or add us as Preferred Source in your Google search settings.

The Reform leader should also steal a recent Tory policy announcement, and do something about student tuition fees – which are not really student fees at all, but a tax on working graduates.

This is an issue many younger, well-educated voters care deeply about, because they are the ones paying. And they are also the type of people most attracted to the Green Party.

Mr Farage will never be able to match Green leader Zack Polanski on “liberal” issues such as legalising drugs, even if he wanted to, and he’s not going to join the Greens in demonising Israel.

But if he can convince Green supporters they will be financially better off under Reform, he may find support for his party starts rising again.

Green Party Could Stop Nigel Farage Becoming Prime Minister – Here’s How He Fights Back

Britain’s increasingly fragmented political landscape has created a new strategic problem for Nigel Farage: the Green Party is no longer simply a peripheral force on the left, but a party capable of affecting how votes are distributed across key constituencies.

The question of whether the Greens could ultimately make it harder for Farage to reach Downing Street is now being discussed alongside a much broader debate about tactical voting, Labour’s recovery under Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Reform UK’s attempt to turn strong national support into parliamentary seats.

A major poll published on September 24 offers one of the clearest illustrations of the problem. Research by Survation and the campaign organisation 38 Degrees, based on more than 8,000 voters, examined not only declared voting intentions but also whether voters would be prepared to abandon their preferred party and support another candidate in order to influence the result in their constituency.

Under the poll’s basic modelling, Labour would be the largest party with 272 seats, while Reform UK would be projected to become the official opposition with 153 seats. The Conservatives would be third with 85 seats.

But the model then tested what could happen if voters who said they were open to tactical voting actually switched to the strongest local challenger. In that scenario, Reform’s projected total fell dramatically to 62 seats, while Labour rose to 319.

The researchers stressed that such modelling is highly uncertain, particularly this far from a general election. It should therefore be understood as an illustration of how Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system can transform relatively small changes in voting behaviour into much larger changes in parliamentary representation.

For Farage, the significance is straightforward. Reform can potentially win a large share of votes without winning a corresponding number of Commons seats if opponents coordinate around whichever party is strongest locally.

The Green Party’s growing role

The Greens have already demonstrated that they can break through in constituencies where Labour previously appeared dominant.

In February’s Gorton and Denton by-election, Green candidate Hannah Spencer won with 14,980 votes, representing 40.7% of the vote. Reform candidate Matt Goodwin finished second on 10,578 votes, while Labour came third with 9,364.

The Greens therefore took the seat with a majority of 4,402 votes, in an electorate of 77,501.

The result became particularly important because Reform had hoped to challenge Labour in traditional Labour territory, while the Greens were attempting to establish themselves as a serious alternative to the governing party on the left.

Green leader Zack Polanski subsequently argued that the result showed voters were prepared to support his party in places where it had previously been regarded as a minor force.

That argument has since been reinforced by the party’s wider local-election performance. However, it is important not to confuse local and by-election results with a general-election forecast. Different turnout levels, candidates, local issues and campaign dynamics can produce very different outcomes.

The Greens’ rise nevertheless creates a complicated electoral environment for Reform.

If Green candidates take substantial numbers of votes from Labour or other progressive parties in a constituency where Reform is competitive, that fragmentation could potentially benefit Reform.

But if Green voters later decide to vote tactically for the strongest non-Reform candidate, the opposite could happen.

That tension lies at the centre of the current debate.

Polanski has openly discussed stopping Farage

Polanski has made no secret of the fact that preventing Farage from entering Downing Street is an important political objective for the Greens.

Earlier in 2026, he discussed the possibility of cooperation with Labour in the event of a hung parliament. He indicated that a deal would depend on who led Labour, rather than simply accepting cooperation with a government led by Keir Starmer.

His argument has been that voters who want to oppose Farage should not necessarily have to return automatically to Labour.

Instead, Polanski has presented the Greens as an alternative political force capable of attracting voters who have become dissatisfied with Labour.

That strategy has given the Greens a difficult balancing act.

On one hand, the party needs to demonstrate that it can win votes independently of Labour.

On the other, if progressive voters divide themselves between Labour, Greens, Liberal Democrats and independents in closely fought constituencies, Reform candidates could benefit from the split.

This is one reason tactical voting has become increasingly important in discussions about the next general election.

Farage’s response: build Reform’s own electoral machine

Farage’s answer has not been to rely on the weaknesses of other parties.

Instead, Reform has been attempting to strengthen its organisation, campaigning operation and financial resources.

In September, Reform faced internal debate over how to use £72 million in political donations received from cryptocurrency billionaires Ben Delo and Christopher Harborne. The Guardian reported that Farage planned to use the money to expand the party’s professional campaign operation, including hundreds of campaign-related staff.

That matters because Reform’s challenge is not simply winning support in opinion polls. Under Britain’s constituency-based electoral system, a party needs to translate votes into victories in individual seats.

A national vote share does not automatically determine how many MPs a party receives.

Reform therefore has an incentive to identify constituencies where its support is concentrated and then devote resources to those areas.

Farage has also used the party’s local-election successes as evidence that Reform can build support beyond traditional Conservative territory.

After the May 2026 local elections, Farage argued that Reform’s results represented a fundamental change in British politics and highlighted victories in areas that had historically been dominated by Labour or the Conservatives.

The Greens are attempting something similar from the opposite side of the political spectrum.

The changing Labour factor

Perhaps the biggest complication for both Reform and the Greens is Labour’s change of leadership.

Andy Burnham became prime minister following Starmer’s departure, and subsequent polling has suggested that some voters who had moved away from Labour towards the Greens or Liberal Democrats were reconsidering their position.

A July Savanta survey for Queen Mary University of London, for example, put Labour on 31% in London, followed by the Conservatives on 19%, the Greens on 18%, Reform on 16% and the Liberal Democrats on 10%. The research also found that 25% of London voters said they were more likely to support Labour under Burnham than under Starmer.

More recent polling has similarly examined whether Burnham can attract progressive voters back to Labour.

The September Survation/38 Degrees research found that twice as many voters had returned to Labour from the political left as from the right since April.

If that trend continues, it could reduce the number of voters available to the Greens.

But the same research also highlights the limits of relying solely on national polling.

Around 18% of voters in seats where tactical voting could make a substantial difference reportedly said they were willing to vote tactically but were not yet doing so. The researchers calculated that if those voters switched to the strongest local challenger, Reform’s projected number of MPs could fall from 153 to 62.

Again, this is a scenario rather than a prediction of the next election result.

Farage’s political calculation

For Farage, the emerging challenge is therefore more complicated than simply fighting the Green Party.

He faces a three-way electoral environment in many constituencies: Reform competing on the right, Labour attempting to recover support under Burnham, and the Greens seeking to consolidate voters who want a stronger alternative on the left.

The outcome in each constituency could depend heavily on local voting patterns.

A Green breakthrough could hurt Labour and potentially help Reform if the Green vote prevents Labour from finishing ahead of Reform.

But tactical coordination could reverse that dynamic if Green supporters ultimately transfer their votes to Labour or another candidate viewed locally as capable of defeating Reform.

This makes constituency organisation increasingly important.

It also explains why Reform has been investing in professional campaign infrastructure while Farage continues to present the party as a national alternative to the established political parties.

A new electoral battle

Britain’s political system is moving into a period in which national vote share and parliamentary representation may become increasingly disconnected.

The Greens have demonstrated that they can win Westminster seats. Reform has demonstrated that it can challenge established parties across different parts of the country. Labour, meanwhile, is attempting to rebuild its coalition under a new prime minister.

For Farage, the task is therefore not simply to maintain support. Reform must translate that support into victories in individual constituencies while preventing opponents from coordinating against it.

The Greens have introduced another variable into that calculation.

Whether they ultimately help Reform by splitting the left-wing vote, or make it harder for Reform to win through tactical cooperation, will depend on how voters behave in individual constituencies when the next general election arrives.

For now, the evidence shows that tactical voting is a potentially significant force, but not a predetermined outcome.

Farage’s response is already visible: expand Reform’s organisation, target constituencies carefully, strengthen its campaign infrastructure and continue presenting the party as an alternative to both Labour and the Conservatives.

At the same time, Polanski’s Greens are trying to establish themselves as an independent electoral force rather than simply an auxiliary to Labour.

That leaves British politics with an unusual three-way strategic contest.

The next general election will ultimately be decided not by national headlines alone, but by thousands of individual constituency contests — and by whether voters remain loyal to their preferred party or decide that stopping another party is the more important consideration.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.