Nigel Farage is heading for No10 according to a new poll (Image: Getty)

FindOutNow found Reform to be more popular than both Tories and Labour combined (Image: FindOutNow)

The polling predictor suggests Reform would win a whopping 450 seats, and the largest ever parliamentary majority for a single party of 250.

Meanwhile the other parties would be all-but wiped out, with Labour reduced to 61 seats, the LibDems in third with 52 seats and the Tories reduced to a rump of just 14 MPs.

Deputy leader Richard Tice said: “Our summer of campaigning has clearly had an impact. Voters are fleeing Labour and Tories and sailing over to Reform in large numbers. We give them a very warm welcome!”

Mr Tice hailed the new poll (Image: Getty)

Mr Farage has grabbed the limelight with a number of high-profile press conferences focusing on crime, women’s safety and mass deportations.

The other parties have been scrambling to catch up and match Reform’s tough rhetoric on illegal migration, to no avail.

In July, FindOutNow itself published a blog post suggesting other firms could be understating Reform UK’s support in the country.

Reform Hails Bombshell New Poll as Nigel Farage Faces a Dramatic Political Battle

Britain’s political landscape has entered another period of uncertainty, with Reform UK continuing to command attention despite significant changes in the polling picture during 2026. Nigel Farage’s party has previously enjoyed substantial leads in national surveys, but more recent polling has shown a much more competitive contest between Reform, Labour and the Conservatives.

That makes every new poll politically significant.

Reform has repeatedly argued that its support reflects a deeper change in British politics rather than a temporary protest against the government. Farage has sought to position the party as an alternative to the established political parties, focusing heavily on immigration, taxation, public services, national sovereignty and political reform.

Yet the latest evidence also demonstrates why claims of an imminent landslide need to be treated carefully.

Earlier in 2026, Reform performed strongly in local elections. Reuters reported that the party gained more than 1,000 council seats in England during the May elections, while Labour suffered substantial losses. The results represented a major shift in local political representation and provided Reform with an important demonstration of electoral strength.

YouGov’s analysis of the 2026 local elections also found Reform performing strongly in the West Midlands. Its MRP model projected Reform as the party with the highest vote share in 11 of 13 councils covered by the study, although the organisation stressed that several contests were close and that the projections did not amount to predictions of parliamentary seat totals.

Those results help explain why Reform remains confident about its future.

However, national Westminster polling has subsequently become more complicated.

An Ipsos poll conducted between September 10 and 15, 2026, put Labour on 27 percent and Reform on 23 percent, with the Conservatives on 21 percent. Ipsos also reported that seven in ten respondents remained dissatisfied with how the government was running the country.

Another poll from More in Common, published in September, placed Labour on 26 percent, the Conservatives on 23 percent and Reform on 22 percent. That represented one of Reform’s joint-lowest polling figures in 18 months according to the report.

The contrasting numbers illustrate an important point about modern British politics: the political situation is highly fluid.

At one stage, Reform was recording polling figures above 30 percent and some modelling suggested the possibility of a Commons majority. By September 2026, Sky News election analyst Professor Rob Ford reported that Reform’s average support across nine pollsters had fallen substantially compared with the previous year.

This does not mean Reform has disappeared from the political picture.

Far from it.

The party’s performance in local elections demonstrated that it can convert support into actual seats under certain electoral conditions. It has also established itself as a serious competitor in areas that were previously dominated by Labour or the Conservatives.

The challenge for Farage is converting that support into a durable national coalition.

One of Reform’s strongest political assets remains its leader’s extraordinary level of public recognition. Farage has spent decades campaigning on issues that have subsequently become central to British politics. His role in the Brexit movement gave him a national platform, while his leadership of Reform has allowed him to continue campaigning against what he describes as the failures of the established parties.

Supporters regard that experience as an advantage.

Critics argue that Reform’s reliance on one highly recognisable figure creates its own difficulties.

The polling evidence offers support for both interpretations.

Farage remains capable of generating enormous attention, but his personal ratings have not always matched his party’s electoral performance. A September YouGov tracker reported by The Independent found that 69 percent of Britons held an unfavourable opinion of Farage, while 24 percent viewed him favourably.

That presents an interesting contradiction.

A politician can lead a party that performs strongly among voters while simultaneously having relatively weak personal approval ratings. This suggests that some people may support Reform’s policies or oppose established parties without necessarily having a positive personal opinion of Farage.

For Reform, understanding that distinction could be important.

The party’s political message has increasingly focused on issues that resonate with voters who believe successive governments have failed to address their concerns. Immigration remains central, but the party has also sought to develop positions on taxation, energy, welfare, housing and the economy.

Farage’s argument is essentially that Britain’s political system needs a fundamental change of direction.

Whether voters ultimately agree will depend on how they evaluate those policies.

The wider political environment also matters.

Reform is no longer competing against only Labour and the Conservatives. The Greens, Liberal Democrats and newer political movements are also seeking support from different sections of the electorate.

The emergence of additional competitors can make the relationship between votes and parliamentary seats particularly unpredictable.

A party can increase its national vote share without necessarily increasing its number of MPs if its support is spread inefficiently across constituencies. Conversely, concentrated support can produce substantial numbers of seats with a smaller national vote share.

This is why national polling percentages should not automatically be translated into claims about a future Commons majority.

The electoral system matters.

So does tactical voting.

A September 2026 Survation and 38 Degrees study explored a scenario in which voters coordinated behind the strongest candidate positioned against Reform in individual constituencies. The resulting MRP model produced a substantially different parliamentary projection from a straightforward interpretation of national vote shares.

That does not mean the scenario will happen.

It demonstrates instead how sensitive parliamentary outcomes can be to voter behaviour in individual constituencies.

For Farage, this creates a major strategic challenge.

Reform must maintain its appeal among its existing supporters while potentially expanding into new groups. It must also demonstrate that it can function as more than a protest movement.

That question becomes particularly important whenever Reform talks about forming a government.

Running a national administration requires detailed plans for the economy, health services, education, defence, infrastructure, taxation and international relations. It also requires a large political and administrative organisation capable of turning promises into policy.

The party’s supporters may argue that these are challenges that can be overcome.

Its critics will continue to question whether Reform has the experience and infrastructure required.

The next general election remains some time away, meaning today’s polling cannot determine its eventual outcome.

Political circumstances can change dramatically before voters cast their ballots. Economic conditions, leadership changes, international events, government performance and campaign developments can all reshape public opinion.

The experience of 2026 itself demonstrates this volatility.

Reform moved from very high national polling numbers to a more difficult position, while simultaneously making substantial gains in local government.

That combination makes the party’s position particularly interesting.

It suggests that Reform can be electorally powerful without necessarily being consistently dominant in national voting-intention polls.

For Labour, the continued presence of Reform remains a significant political challenge even when Reform is not leading.

The party cannot simply assume that Farage’s support will disappear. Local election results have demonstrated that voters who previously supported established parties are willing to choose Reform in significant numbers.

The Conservatives face an additional challenge because Reform competes directly for many voters who might otherwise support the Conservative Party.

The resulting three-way competition can transform traditional electoral calculations.

For voters, meanwhile, the central issue is not whether a headline describes a “bombshell” poll as evidence of a landslide.

It is what the underlying data actually shows.

Polls measure opinion at a particular point in time. Different organisations use different methodologies, samples and weighting systems. Results can therefore vary significantly.

Looking at several polls together provides a broader picture than relying on one survey.

The evidence from September 2026 shows a competitive and unsettled political environment. Ipsos placed Labour four points ahead of Reform, while other surveys have produced different results.

At the same time, Reform’s strong local-election performance demonstrates that national polling does not tell the entire story.

Farage can therefore point to genuine evidence of political strength.

But the claim that he is definitively “on course for a landslide victory” goes beyond what any single poll can establish.

A landslide is an electoral outcome, not a polling position.

The eventual result will depend on millions of individual decisions made across hundreds of constituencies.

What can be said with greater confidence is that Reform has fundamentally altered Britain’s political competition.

The party has challenged Labour in traditional Labour territory, competed with the Conservatives for right-leaning voters and forced the established parties to respond to issues that Farage has made central to his political campaign.

That achievement alone represents a significant development in British politics.

Whether it ultimately becomes a national governing breakthrough remains unresolved.

For now, Reform will continue to celebrate favourable polling when it appears, while opponents will point to surveys showing the party losing ground.

Both developments are part of the same volatile political picture.

The most important story is therefore not simply whether one poll puts Reform first or second.

It is that Britain’s traditional party system remains under considerable pressure, and Nigel Farage’s Reform UK continues to be one of the principal forces driving that change.

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