Nigel Farage and Jacob Rees Mogg (Image: Getty)

A Tory Party insider told the Sun on Sunday: “We have Jacob on defection watch. His politics are far closer to Nigel’s than Kemi’s and his seat is going to go to Reform.

“If he wants to come back as a politician – and he does – he will need to defect.

Opinion polls (Image: PA)

Sir Jacob lost his seat to Labour’s Dan Norris at the last election.

But Norris has been suspended by Labour after being arrested on suspicion of rape and child sex offences.

It could lead to a by-election in North East Somerset before the next general election.

Jacob Rees-Mogg tipped to leave Tories for Reform in huge blow to Kemi Badenoch

Jacob Rees-Mogg has once again found himself at the centre of speculation over the future of the Conservative Party, with his long-standing relationship with Nigel Farage and his calls for closer cooperation between the Conservatives and Reform UK fuelling renewed discussion about whether he could eventually make the move himself.

The former Conservative cabinet minister has repeatedly been identified as a potential Reform defector. When Robert Jenrick left the Conservatives for Reform in January 2026, Rees-Mogg was among the names discussed as someone who might follow. Yet Rees-Mogg subsequently made his own position clear: in a January article, he said that despite receiving messages urging him to join Reform, he had decided to remain with the Conservatives.

That does not mean speculation has disappeared.

Instead, Rees-Mogg’s continued advocacy of cooperation between the two parties has kept the question alive, particularly as Reform has attracted a growing number of former Conservative politicians.

Rees-Mogg’s decision after Jenrick’s defection

The most important evidence concerning Rees-Mogg’s current position comes directly from the former MP himself.

Following Jenrick’s departure, Rees-Mogg published an article titled “Why I will not be following Robert Jenrick”, explaining why he intended to remain Conservative.

He acknowledged that he admired Farage and agreed with much of Jenrick’s criticism of the Conservative Party. But he argued that leaving the Conservatives was not the answer for him.

Rees-Mogg also suggested that the consequences would have been much more serious for the Conservatives if a large group of MPs had defected alongside Jenrick.

His position was therefore more complicated than simple opposition to Reform. He could praise aspects of Farage’s political approach while still maintaining that he belonged in the Conservative Party.

That distinction is important when assessing the latest claims that he could leave.

A report that someone is “tipped” to defect is not the same thing as confirmation that the person intends to do so.

Why Reform keeps coming up

Rees-Mogg and Farage have known each other politically for many years.

Indeed, the Guardian reported in January that Rees-Mogg had been discussed as a possible Reform recruit for some time. The newspaper noted that even before the Brexit referendum he had proposed cooperation between the Conservatives and the UK Independence Party, which Farage then led.

That history helps explain why speculation about Rees-Mogg is persistent.

He is also a prominent Brexit supporter and has remained highly visible since losing his North East Somerset seat at the 2024 general election. His media work has allowed him to continue commenting on Conservative politics despite no longer being a serving MP.

His political profile also overlaps with several themes emphasised by Reform, including Brexit, immigration, reducing the size of government and criticism of Labour.

But political agreement on individual issues does not automatically mean that a defection is imminent.

The Reform-Conservative relationship

The bigger story is arguably the increasingly complicated relationship between Reform and the Conservatives.

Rees-Mogg has repeatedly argued that the two parties should cooperate rather than divide votes between themselves.

That position became particularly visible during the Makerfield by-election campaign in May 2026.

Rees-Mogg called for Conservatives and Reform UK to “work together” and argued that the two parties should consider cooperation in order to challenge Labour. He described the contest as an opportunity for the political right to demonstrate what cooperation could achieve.

Kemi Badenoch rejected that approach.

The Conservative leader said her party would field its own candidate and argued that voters should be able to choose who they wanted to represent them.

This disagreement illustrates the strategic problem confronting the Conservatives.

Some Conservatives see Reform as a political competitor whose support must be won back. Others, including Rees-Mogg, have argued that cooperation could prevent divisions among voters with similar priorities.

Badenoch’s position has been to maintain a separate Conservative identity rather than enter an electoral pact.

A growing list of Tory defections

The speculation surrounding Rees-Mogg has become more significant because Reform has already attracted several prominent former Conservatives.

The Guardian reported in January that Jenrick’s defection brought the number of current or former parliamentarians who had joined Reform from the Conservatives to 18. The list included several high-profile figures, including Nadine Dorries and Danny Kruger.

The movement of politicians between the two parties has created a new political reality for the Conservatives.

Every prominent defection gives Reform additional political experience and provides the party with another opportunity to argue that it is attracting people from the established Conservative movement.

At the same time, the Conservatives have an incentive to retain politicians with established reputations and networks.

That makes speculation around figures such as Rees-Mogg politically important even when there is no confirmed plan to defect.

Rees-Mogg’s unusual position

There is an additional reason why Rees-Mogg attracts attention.

Unlike some potential defectors, he does not appear to have hidden his admiration for Farage or his willingness to discuss cooperation.

In May, he again argued that Conservatives and Reform should consider working together. A report of an event at the University of Warwick also recorded him saying that the parties could find common ground on issues including border security and reducing the size of the welfare state.

He has therefore occupied an unusual position: firmly associated with Conservative politics while openly advocating closer relations with Reform.

That can easily be interpreted as evidence that he is moving towards Farage.

But his January statement provides an important counterpoint.

He specifically rejected the suggestion that he should follow Jenrick and explained why he believed remaining Conservative was the appropriate course for him.

What would a defection mean for Badenoch?

If Rees-Mogg were eventually to leave, the political significance would depend on the circumstances.

He is no longer a sitting Conservative MP, so a departure would not immediately reduce the Conservative parliamentary numbers.

However, he remains a recognisable former cabinet minister and one of the most distinctive figures associated with the Conservative Party’s Brexit era.

His departure could therefore carry symbolic significance.

For Badenoch, the challenge would be managing the wider narrative around Conservative identity.

A prominent former minister leaving for Reform could reinforce arguments that the Conservative Party is losing politicians who believe Reform better represents their political priorities.

But the opposite argument would also be possible: Rees-Mogg is no longer an MP, and his decision would not necessarily indicate what current Conservative parliamentarians intend to do.

The impact would therefore depend heavily on the circumstances and on whether other politicians followed.

Badenoch’s strategy

Badenoch has so far sought to maintain a distinct Conservative position rather than create a formal alliance with Reform.

Her rejection of a Tory-Reform pact in Makerfield demonstrated that approach clearly.

The Conservative leadership has an obvious reason for maintaining that distinction. A political party needs its own policies, organisation and electoral identity.

But the rise of Reform makes that task more complicated.

If the Conservatives move too close to Reform, they risk blurring the distinction between the parties.

If they remain completely separate, Reform can continue competing directly for voters who previously supported the Conservatives.

The issue is particularly difficult because the two parties overlap on several major questions, especially immigration, Brexit-related issues, government spending and the role of the state.

Farage’s appeal to former Conservatives

Farage’s strategy has increasingly involved presenting Reform as a destination for people who believe the Conservatives failed to deliver on their promises.

The recruitment of former Conservative politicians strengthens that message.

Jenrick’s departure was particularly significant because he had been a senior Conservative figure and shadow cabinet member. His move gave Reform another politician with government experience.

Rees-Mogg would represent a different kind of addition.

He is strongly associated with the Brexit campaign, traditional Conservative politics and a distinctive parliamentary style. His presence in Reform would therefore carry considerable symbolic weight.

But as of the evidence available, there is a crucial distinction between being discussed as a potential defector and announcing a defection.

Why the speculation persists

The speculation is unlikely to disappear because Rees-Mogg himself has continued to argue for cooperation.

His relationship with Farage is well established, and his policy positions overlap with Reform on several issues.

At the same time, he has explicitly explained why he did not follow Jenrick.

That combination produces an unusual political story.

Rees-Mogg can simultaneously believe that Reform and the Conservatives should cooperate while continuing to believe that he should remain Conservative.

There is no contradiction necessarily involved. Political cooperation does not require membership of the same party.

The wider question for the Conservatives

Ultimately, the Rees-Mogg speculation reflects a much bigger question facing Badenoch and the Conservative Party: how should the Conservatives respond to Reform without losing their separate identity?

The answer will involve more than individual politicians.

It will depend on policy, organisation, electoral strategy and the party’s relationship with voters who have moved towards Reform.

The Conservatives also have to decide how much emphasis to place on cooperation and how much on competition.

Rees-Mogg’s position demonstrates one possible approach: remain Conservative while encouraging the two parties to cooperate where their interests overlap.

Badenoch has so far taken a different approach, insisting that the Conservatives should compete independently.

Neither approach makes a future defection inevitable.

For now, the strongest documented evidence is that Rees-Mogg has previously rejected calls to follow Jenrick into Reform while continuing to advocate cooperation between the two parties.

That leaves the headline claim about a possible defection in the realm of political speculation rather than established fact.

What is beyond dispute is that the Conservative-Reform relationship has become one of the central strategic questions on the British right. And as long as prominent Conservatives such as Rees-Mogg continue to argue for cooperation with Farage’s party, speculation about where the boundary between the two movements ultimately lies is likely to continue.

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.