The poll of 1,102 Londoners also suggests that if a mayoral election was held, Reform would gain 17 points since May 2024, when Labour’s Sadiq Khan won a record third term.

The right-wing insurgent party is on 20%, in joint second place with the Conservatives.

“Even in our least advanced region we are ahead of a dying Conservative Party.”

“People are fed up with broken promises and decades of stagnation, and want their capital and country saved.”

It comes after Reform UK made major gains in the local elections earlier this month, winning hundreds of councillors and taking control of a number of town halls.

The party also gained a fifth MP in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and won two mayoral contests.

Sadiq Khan Panic as Reform UK Hits Second Place in New London Poll

Sadiq Khan faces a fresh political challenge in London after a new poll put Reform UK in second place in the race for City Hall.

The result is significant because it suggests that the battle for the capital’s mayoralty could become increasingly fragmented, with Reform pushing ahead of the Conservatives and positioning itself as the principal challenger from the political right.

The poll does not show Reform winning City Hall, nor does it establish that Khan is on course to lose. Labour remains ahead in the figures. But Reform’s emergence in second place represents a substantial change in the political landscape and gives Nigel Farage’s party a much stronger platform from which to campaign across London.

Reform breaks through in the capital

A Savanta survey conducted for the Mile End Institute at Queen Mary University of London placed Labour on 33 per cent, Reform UK on 20 per cent and the Conservatives on 18 per cent. The Greens stood at 14 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats on 10 per cent.

The figures were based on more than 1,000 Londoners surveyed in August and were conducted well ahead of the 2028 mayoral election.

That timing matters.

Londoners are not yet in the final stages of a mayoral campaign, and candidates and party platforms will evolve considerably before polling day.

Nevertheless, the figures provide an indication of the changing political balance in the capital.

For Reform, reaching second place is particularly important because it puts the party ahead of the Conservatives in a contest where the Tories have traditionally been the principal challenger to Labour.

A new problem for Khan

Sadiq Khan has been Mayor of London since 2016 and has already won three mayoral elections.

His political dominance of City Hall has therefore been unusually durable.

But London’s political environment has changed considerably since his first victory.

The Conservatives have weakened in many parts of the capital, while the Greens and Reform have expanded their support. Local election results in 2026 also demonstrated the extent of the fragmentation, with Reform winning control of Havering and making gains elsewhere.

The result is a more complicated electoral map.

Khan cannot simply rely on the old Labour-versus-Conservative model.

Instead, Labour faces competition from several directions at once.

That could make second preferences particularly important in determining the eventual outcome.

Reform’s rise changes the Conservative calculation

For the Conservatives, the poll is potentially uncomfortable because Reform’s 20 per cent puts it narrowly ahead.

The difference is only two percentage points, meaning it should not be interpreted as proof of a permanent shift. Polling always contains uncertainty, and the eventual contest will depend on candidates, turnout, campaigning and events that have not yet occurred.

But politically, second place matters.

A Reform candidate reaching the final stage of a London mayoral contest would give the party a much higher profile in the capital.

It would also force Conservative campaigners to consider whether their traditional support is being divided.

That is one of the central problems facing the modern British right.

When voters who previously backed the Conservatives move towards Reform, the Conservative vote can become vulnerable even if Reform is not itself winning a majority.

The London contest could therefore become another demonstration of the wider struggle between the two parties.

Laila Cunningham becomes central to the contest

Reform has selected Laila Cunningham as its London mayoral candidate.

Her campaign has sought to focus heavily on crime, policing and the wider direction of the capital.

That gives Reform an opportunity to build a campaign around issues that matter particularly strongly to Londoners.

A recent YouGov study found that 47 per cent of Londoners thought Khan was doing badly as mayor, compared with 42 per cent who thought he was doing well. The same research found negative views particularly around crime and housing.

Those figures do not automatically translate into votes for Reform.

But they demonstrate why the mayoral contest could become competitive.

Reform can attempt to persuade voters who are dissatisfied with aspects of London’s direction that a different political approach is required.

Crime, housing and the cost of living

The biggest challenge for any opposition candidate will be turning general dissatisfaction into a coherent electoral programme.

London’s voters have a wide range of concerns.

Crime and policing remain important. Housing affordability is a major issue. Transport, taxation, employment, public services and the cost of living can all influence voting decisions.

Reform will therefore have to go beyond its national political message.

A successful London campaign would require policies specifically designed for the capital.

That means addressing London’s enormous housing pressures, the cost of commuting, policing, transport infrastructure and the relationship between the mayor and the boroughs.

For Khan, the challenge is equally clear.

After a decade at City Hall, his record is inevitably subject to scrutiny.

The question for Labour is whether voters will judge him primarily on achievements during his time in office or on their broader assessment of the direction in which London is heading.

London is not the same as the rest of Britain

One reason the poll is interesting is that London remains politically distinctive.

The capital has traditionally been more socially liberal and more supportive of Labour than many other parts of England.

That makes Reform’s rise particularly noteworthy.

At the same time, the party’s support is not evenly distributed.

Earlier polling found Labour significantly stronger in Inner London, while Reform performed better among some groups outside the traditional Labour heartlands. One detailed survey found Reform leading among non-graduates, while Labour remained substantially ahead among university-educated Londoners.

This geographical and demographic divide could become crucial.

A Reform campaign may need to make significant progress in Outer London while also finding ways to appeal to voters in areas where Labour has historically been dominant.

The importance of second preferences

The mayoral voting system creates another layer of uncertainty.

If no candidate receives the required majority of first-choice votes, the preferences of voters supporting eliminated candidates can become important.

That means Reform reaching second place would not necessarily mean the party was close to winning.

Indeed, analysis of the August poll suggested that Labour would still have a substantial advantage once second preferences were considered.

Nevertheless, reaching a final round would transform the political conversation.

Reform would gain an enormous platform and could present itself as one of the two principal forces competing for City Hall.

That alone would represent a significant development.

Khan’s fourth-term question

There is another unanswered question: whether Sadiq Khan will stand for a fourth term.

Khan has indicated that he will make a decision at a later stage.

If he does seek another term, Labour will be defending an incumbent with extensive name recognition and three previous electoral victories.

If he does not, Labour would face a very different contest.

A new Labour candidate would need to establish a personal profile while defending the party’s record at City Hall.

That could create opportunities for Reform and the Conservatives, but it could also give Labour the chance to present a fresh face to London voters.

The identity of the candidates will therefore be crucial.

Reform still has a long road ahead

The latest figures should not be interpreted as proof that Reform is destined to take City Hall.

Other polling has produced different results.

An Opinium survey conducted in July, for example, put Labour on 32 per cent, the Greens on 18 per cent, and both Reform and the Conservatives on 17 per cent.

That difference illustrates how volatile the early London polling environment can be.

The mayoral election is still some distance away, and the eventual campaign could look very different.

Nevertheless, the common thread is that Reform is now clearly part of the conversation.

The party is no longer simply attempting to attract protest votes from dissatisfied Londoners.

It is building an organisation capable of contesting City Hall seriously.

A warning sign for Labour?

For Labour, Reform’s emergence should be viewed within the broader fragmentation of London’s electorate.

The party remains ahead in the available polling, but its support is no longer operating in a simple two-party environment.

The Greens have also made major gains, while Reform is drawing support from voters who might previously have supported the Conservatives and, in some areas, Labour.

This creates a complicated electoral puzzle for Khan.

He must defend his record while preventing multiple challengers from gaining enough support to reshape the contest.

For Reform, meanwhile, the immediate objective is clear: establish itself as a credible London-wide alternative and demonstrate that its support extends beyond isolated pockets of the capital.

The battle for City Hall is changing

The latest poll does not settle the London mayoral race.

It does, however, highlight how different the political landscape could look by the time voters return to the polls.

Reform’s rise to second place puts pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives. It gives Laila Cunningham a stronger platform and provides Nigel Farage’s party with an opportunity to demonstrate that its national momentum can translate into one of Britain’s most politically important cities.

For Khan, the message is that a fourth-term campaign cannot simply assume the political conditions of previous elections.

For the Conservatives, the figures underline the challenge posed by Reform.

And for Reform, second place represents an opportunity rather than a final destination.

There is still a long campaign ahead, and London voters will ultimately decide which candidates and policies they support.

But one thing is already clear: the next battle for City Hall is shaping up to be far more fragmented than the contests of the past.

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