I doubted Kemi Badenoch – but now I can see her becoming prime minister
Kemi Badenoch delivers her conference speech (Image: Getty)
For much of her time as Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch looked like a politician fighting simply to survive. After the party’s devastating defeat in the 2024 general election, doubts surrounded her leadership, questions were raised about her political instincts, and some Conservatives wondered whether she would remain in the job long enough to lead them into the next election.
But something has changed.
Following the latest round of party conferences, Badenoch appears more confident, more comfortable in front of the cameras and increasingly willing to challenge both Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage. Her recent performance has persuaded some previously sceptical observers that the Conservatives may have a route back to power.
That does not mean a Conservative victory is suddenly likely. The party remains burdened by its record in government, and Badenoch has yet to demonstrate that improved personal ratings can translate into a decisive electoral recovery.
Nevertheless, there are reasons to take her ambitions more seriously than before. Her leadership is becoming more defined, her message is clearer, and she has started to present herself as someone with a political destination rather than simply a leader trying to hold her party together.
1. Badenoch has become a more confident leader
When Badenoch won the Conservative leadership contest in 2024, she inherited a party still reeling from its worst general-election result in modern history. The Conservatives had been reduced to 121 MPs, losing seats to Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Reform UK.
Her early months in the role were difficult. She had to manage disagreements within her parliamentary party while trying to establish a clear identity for an opposition that had lost public trust.
At times, her approach appeared reactive. Reform UK was attracting disillusioned Conservative voters, while Labour occupied the political space of a newly elected government. Badenoch was often required to defend her party’s record before she could persuade voters to listen to its plans for the future.
More recently, she has looked increasingly assured. Her conference appearances and parliamentary performances have helped establish a more recognisable leadership style: direct, combative and willing to acknowledge that the Conservatives made serious mistakes.
That matters because opposition leaders need to offer more than criticism. They must convince voters that they understand the problems facing the country and can provide a credible alternative.
Badenoch’s supporters believe she is beginning to do that. Her critics, however, argue that a stronger performance at a party conference is not the same as proving she can lead a government.
Both points are relevant. The improvement in her presentation is real, but the next stage is demonstrating that it can produce sustained public support.
2. Her personal standing is improving, but the party still has a problem
One of Badenoch’s most encouraging developments has been the improvement in her personal ratings.
A YouGov assessment published on October 2 found that the proportion of Britons willing to consider voting Conservative had risen by six percentage points over the previous year, reaching 28%. However, the proportion naming the Conservatives as their current voting intention was only 14% in that survey.
The same research found that 31% used at least one positive term when describing Badenoch, while 40% used at least one negative term. Respondents commonly associated her with qualities such as strength and intelligence, but some also described her in more critical terms.
The picture is therefore mixed. Badenoch may be becoming more recognisable and gaining respect among sections of the electorate, but a substantial number of voters remain unconvinced.
That distinction is crucial. A leader can improve her reputation without persuading people to support her party. Voters may admire a politician’s determination while still believing that the party she represents cannot be trusted to manage the economy or public services.
Badenoch has increasingly acknowledged that problem. Rather than insisting that the Conservatives did everything right in office, she has sought to present the party as under new management, with a different approach to leadership and policy.
It is a necessary step. But restoring trust will require more than an admission of past mistakes. Voters will want to know what has changed, why it has changed and whether the party can deliver better results in government.
3. Rejecting a pact with Reform UK gives her a clearer identity
One of the biggest strategic questions facing Badenoch has been whether the Conservatives should work with Nigel Farage to unite the political right.
The argument for cooperation is straightforward. If Reform UK and the Conservatives compete for similar voters in the same constituencies, they risk splitting the right-wing vote and allowing another party to win.
But an agreement could also create serious difficulties for the Conservatives. The party has historically depended on a broad electoral coalition, including socially conservative voters, business owners, liberal Conservatives and moderate voters who prioritise economic competence.
A formal alliance with Reform could alienate some of those groups while leaving the Conservatives looking like a junior partner in a political project dominated by Farage.
At the Conservative conference in October 2026, Badenoch firmly rejected a merger or electoral pact. She argued that her party should rebuild in its own right rather than abandon its identity to its principal rival on the right.
The decision has risks. Reform remains a powerful competitor, and the Conservatives cannot assume that voters who have left will automatically return.
Yet the alternative also presents difficulties. If Badenoch constantly adjusts her message to match Farage, she could end up reinforcing the impression that Reform is setting the political agenda.
By drawing a clearer dividing line, she has an opportunity to explain what makes the Conservatives different: their approach to economic policy, public services, national security and the role of government.
The challenge is to make that distinction meaningful to voters rather than simply a disagreement between party leaders.
4. The economy could be her route back to power
Badenoch’s strongest opportunity may lie in the growing debate over Britain’s economic direction.
Households remain concerned about the cost of living, while businesses are looking for greater certainty over taxation, regulation and investment. High borrowing costs and international instability have also made the Government’s financial decisions more difficult.
Burnham’s Labour administration faces pressure to demonstrate that its policies can improve living standards. If voters conclude that the Government cannot deliver on its economic promises, the Conservatives could benefit.
But Badenoch must offer a credible alternative rather than rely on public dissatisfaction alone.
At the 2026 conference, she promoted tax reductions, lower business costs and a more restrictive approach to public spending. Among her headline proposals was a pledge to abolish inheritance tax on family homes if the Conservatives returned to power, beginning with a higher tax-free allowance for families.
She also proposed reducing employer National Insurance contributions for younger workers, arguing that lower employment costs could encourage businesses to recruit.
According to Reuters’ report on October 7, Badenoch said the family-home inheritance tax exemption would be funded through her wider plans to reduce government spending.
These proposals give her campaign a more recognisable economic direction. They also raise questions that the Conservatives must answer.
Tax cuts can help households and businesses, but their long-term effects depend on how they are financed and how the economy responds. If the promised savings do not materialise, the Government could face a choice between borrowing more, raising other taxes or cutting services.
Badenoch will need to explain precisely how her plans would work, who would benefit and what trade-offs voters should expect.
A convincing economic programme could help rebuild the Conservatives’ reputation for competence. An underfunded one could revive the doubts that followed previous Conservative governments.
5. Her speaking style is becoming an asset
Badenoch has never been a conventional political communicator. She can be confrontational, blunt and impatient with arguments she considers dishonest or illogical.
That style has sometimes worked against her. Critics accuse her of being too combative, while opponents argue that her focus on cultural disputes can distract from economic concerns.
Yet her supporters see those same qualities as strengths. They believe she is prepared to say what she thinks, challenge political opponents directly and avoid the carefully scripted language associated with Westminster.
Her recent conference speech suggested a leader increasingly comfortable with her own political identity. She spoke with conviction, defended her priorities and presented the Conservatives as a party attempting to rebuild after a period of serious failure.
There are obvious comparisons with Margaret Thatcher, whom Badenoch has cited as a political inspiration. Both politicians have been associated with strong convictions and a willingness to confront opponents rather than seek universal approval.
But the comparison has limits. Thatcher’s political success rested not only on her communication style but also on a combination of economic circumstances, party organisation, electoral strategy and policy decisions.
Badenoch must establish her own appeal rather than rely on historical parallels. The public may appreciate authenticity, but it also expects political leaders to show judgement, discipline and an understanding of everyday concerns.
A memorable speech can change the mood of a conference. Only consistent performance can change the public’s assessment of a party.
6. The path to Downing Street remains difficult
Despite the improvement in Badenoch’s presentation, the electoral arithmetic remains daunting.
A YouGov voting-intention poll conducted on October 4–5 placed Labour on 27%, Reform UK on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%. The figures suggested that the Conservatives were competitive with Reform but still behind Labour.
Polling is a snapshot rather than a prediction of the next general election. Support can change significantly as campaigns develop, leaders make mistakes and voters reassess their choices.
Nevertheless, the figures underline the scale of the task. The Conservatives must win back voters who moved to Reform, regain support from former supporters who switched to the Liberal Democrats and persuade undecided voters that the party has learned from its time in office.
That is a complicated coalition to rebuild. Some former Conservative voters want a tougher approach to immigration and national identity. Others are more concerned about economic stability, public services and political moderation.
Badenoch’s challenge is to create a programme capable of appealing to enough of these groups without appearing inconsistent.
Her refusal to make a deal with Reform could help preserve the Conservatives’ distinct identity, but it means she must compete directly with Farage for voters who want a stronger challenge to Labour.
She also has to contend with the Liberal Democrats, who have built support in a number of traditionally Conservative constituencies.
Winning back national support will not be enough on its own. The party must also translate that support into seats, which requires careful targeting, strong local candidates and a campaign capable of responding to different regional concerns.
7. The biggest test is whether she can rebuild trust
Perhaps the most important question is whether Badenoch can persuade voters that the Conservatives have genuinely changed.
The party governed Britain for 14 years before its defeat in 2024. Its record includes Brexit, the Covid-19 pandemic, repeated leadership changes, the Truss mini-Budget and prolonged arguments over immigration and public spending.
Some of those events were shaped by circumstances beyond any one leader’s control. Others were the result of political decisions that damaged the party’s reputation.
Badenoch cannot simply distance herself from the past. She must explain what went wrong, what lessons have been learned and how a future Conservative government would behave differently.
Her willingness to acknowledge mistakes could help. So could a more disciplined approach to policy, with fewer announcements and greater emphasis on implementation.
But voters are likely to remain sceptical until the party demonstrates that it can maintain a stable leadership, manage public finances responsibly and deliver the promises it makes.
That is the difference between an opposition leader who performs well and a prime minister who governs effectively.
Could Kemi Badenoch really become Prime Minister?
For the first time in a while, there are plausible reasons to believe Badenoch could make the Conservatives competitive again.
She has become more confident, established a clearer identity and begun to separate her party from Reform UK. Her economic message is taking shape, and the Government’s own difficulties could create opportunities for the opposition.
But the obstacles are considerable. The Conservatives remain unpopular with many voters, their polling position is still behind Labour in several surveys, and their economic promises require detailed answers about funding and delivery.
Badenoch must also demonstrate that her confrontational style can reach beyond party loyalists and appeal to voters who simply want their lives to become more affordable and public services to improve.
A return to Downing Street is not inevitable, and a strong conference performance does not erase years of political damage.
Yet it would be a mistake to dismiss her chances entirely. Political fortunes can change, particularly when a governing party struggles to meet public expectations and the opposition begins to offer a more coherent alternative.
Badenoch now has an opportunity to prove that the Conservatives can be more than a party defending its past. If she can turn greater personal confidence into public trust, and turn policy announcements into a credible programme for government, she may yet become a serious contender for the highest office in Britain.
The question is no longer simply whether she can survive as Conservative leader. It is whether she can persuade enough voters that she is ready to lead the country.