Nigel Farage is on course to become Prime Minister with a landslide victory for his party Reform UK according to a new mammoth opinion poll. Reform would win 377 seats if an election was held today, giving them a majority of 50. Labour would win 118 seats, fewer than half as many as Reform, as anger over tax rises and soaring prices turns voters against Sir Keir Starmer’s party.
It would mean Sir Keir was kicked out of Downing Street. He could continue as leader of the opposition, or Labour could elect a new leader. Liberal Democrats would gain 69 seats – but Conservatives would be consigned to fourth place with just 29 seats in a nightmare result for party leader Kemi Badenoch.
Nigel Farage could become Prime Minister according to a major new survey (Image: Getty)
The findings will pile more pressure on Mrs Badenoch, with many Conservatives already concerned that the party is struggling to win back support following their election loss last year while more voters are turning to Reform.
The poll was conducted by Electoral Calculus for public affairs firm PLMR. It’s what’s known as an MRP survey, which means more people are questioned than usual with 5,400 people surveyed. This allows the findings to be translated into seat numbers with more accuracy than usual.
According to the survey, 31% of voters would back Reform if an election was held now with 22% backing Labour, 19% voting Conservative and 13% voting Lib Dem. But Liberal Democrats would win more seats despite getting fewer voters, because of the way their votes are distributed across the country.
Martin Baxter, the founder of Electoral Calculus, said: “This is our first MRP poll to show Reform could have an outright parliamentary majority if there were an election soon.
“The ‘big two’ established parties now only command the support of 41 per cent of the public, which is unprecedented in the last hundred years.
“If Labour could bring back disaffected centre-left voters from the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, then they could easily beat Reform.
“As it stands, Reform is firmly out in front.”
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Sir Keir is attempting to see off a huge Labour rebellion with 123 MPs signed up to a Commons amendment opposing planned benefit cuts.
Meanwhile Mr Farage this week launched plans to hand lower-paid workers grants likely to be between £600 and £1,000 each year, paid for by a new charge on wealthy “non doms”. Critics say his proposal would cost billions by cutting the taxes paid by some wealthy UK residents but Reform deny this.
Nigel Farage on Track to Win 377 Reform Seats in New Mega Poll with Labour Decimated
Nigel Farage was once presented as being on course for one of the most extraordinary electoral breakthroughs in modern British political history, with a major MRP projection putting Reform UK on track to win 377 seats at a hypothetical general election.
The projection suggested a political earthquake in which Reform would surge from its handful of Westminster MPs to become the dominant force in the House of Commons, while Labour would suffer a devastating collapse.
The numbers were particularly striking because they demonstrated just how dramatically Britain’s electoral map had begun to fragment after the 2024 general election.
An MRP poll conducted by PLMR and Electoral Calculus in June 2025 projected Reform UK to win 377 constituencies on 31 per cent of the national vote. Labour was projected to fall to 118 seats, while the Conservatives were predicted to win only 29. The Liberal Democrats were projected to take 69.
For Farage, the implications were enormous.
A result of that scale would have transformed Reform from a protest movement into the largest governing party in Britain and potentially placed its leader in Downing Street without the need for a coalition.
But there is an important twist.
The latest polling shows that Britain’s political landscape has changed substantially since that extraordinary 377-seat projection.
From political earthquake to volatile battlefield
The 377-seat figure became symbolic of Reform’s extraordinary rise.
For decades, British politics had largely revolved around Labour and the Conservatives. Even when smaller parties achieved breakthroughs, the basic structure of Westminster remained dominated by the two major parties.
Reform threatened to overturn that model.
Its appeal was built around several themes, including immigration, national sovereignty, taxation, public spending, opposition to what it regards as excessive regulation and dissatisfaction with the established political class.
Farage’s personal profile has also been central to the party’s growth.
After years of campaigning on Brexit and Britain’s relationship with the European Union, he returned to frontline electoral politics as Reform’s leader and secured election to Parliament in 2024.
The subsequent polling surge suggested that Reform’s support was no longer confined to a narrow group of voters.
Instead, the party appeared capable of winning constituencies across England and Wales and making significant advances in areas that had traditionally belonged to Labour or the Conservatives.
Labour’s nightmare scenario
The 377-seat projection was especially alarming for Labour because it suggested that the party’s enormous 2024 majority could disappear with extraordinary speed.
Labour won 411 seats at the 2024 general election.
The PLMR-Electoral Calculus projection, however, put the party on just 118.
That would have represented a loss of almost three-quarters of Labour’s parliamentary representation.
The collapse was not simply a question of Reform taking traditional Conservative seats.
The model indicated that Reform could make major advances in post-industrial communities and other areas where voters had become increasingly dissatisfied with the established parties.
This was the political logic behind Farage’s strategy.
Rather than attempting to replace the Conservatives as the principal party of the centre-right alone, Reform sought to appeal directly to voters who believed Labour had failed to deliver economic security, controlled immigration or restore confidence in public institutions.
But the numbers have moved dramatically
Anyone using the 377-seat figure today needs to recognise that MRP projections are snapshots rather than predictions carved in stone.
That point has become particularly important in 2026.
More in Common’s September 2026 MRP produced a dramatically different picture. It projected Labour as the largest party with 250 seats, while Reform was on 147 and the Conservatives on 125.
The contrast is extraordinary.
In January 2026, More in Common had projected Reform on 381 seats. By September, its estimate had fallen to 147.
That does not mean the earlier poll was necessarily “wrong”. It demonstrates how quickly voter intentions can change when there is a long period between elections.
The September model also found that the race remained exceptionally volatile. Almost half of projected seats were being won by fewer than five percentage points, while 69 per cent of Reform’s projected seats had margins below five points.
In other words, Reform could still make enormous gains — but it could also lose large numbers of seats if its support moved only modestly.
The latest warning for Farage
The most recent national YouGov figures provide another reminder of that volatility.
Fieldwork conducted on October 4 and 5 put Labour on 27 per cent, Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent.
Labour’s five-point lead was its strongest statistically significant advantage in the YouGov tracker for three months. Reform had fallen three points from the previous week.
That is a very different picture from the one suggested by the 377-seat projection.
It also demonstrates why national vote share and constituency projections must not be treated as interchangeable.
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system can turn relatively small changes in support into enormous changes in parliamentary representation.
A party can receive millions of votes yet win relatively few seats if those votes are inefficiently distributed. Conversely, a party whose support is concentrated across hundreds of closely fought constituencies can produce a much larger parliamentary tally.
That is precisely why MRP polling has become so important.
Reform’s opportunity remains enormous
Despite the deterioration from its earlier peak, Reform cannot simply be written off.
More in Common’s September analysis showed that Reform was still projected to win 147 seats — vastly more than the five MPs it secured at the 2024 general election.
The party was also second in a large number of constituencies, meaning relatively small changes in public opinion could dramatically alter its final seat total.
That creates a huge opportunity for Farage.
If Reform can stabilise its support, improve its candidates and convince voters that it can run councils and ultimately central government effectively, it could still emerge as the dominant party of the right.
But the reverse is equally possible.
If Conservative support continues recovering, the right-of-centre vote could become divided between two competing parties.
That could allow Labour to win seats that neither Labour nor the Conservatives would necessarily dominate in a straightforward two-party contest.
The Conservative problem
The Conservatives also face a difficult strategic dilemma.
The latest MRP suggests the party has begun recovering from the depths of its earlier collapse, with 125 projected seats compared with Reform’s 147.
That puts Reform and the Conservatives much closer together than they were during Reform’s peak.
For Farage, this creates a major challenge.
He needs to persuade Conservative voters that Reform is the stronger vehicle for changing Britain.
Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives, meanwhile, have an incentive to argue that only the established Conservative Party can realistically build a government capable of winning a parliamentary majority.
The rivalry between the two parties could therefore become one of the defining battles of the next general election.
Farage’s biggest challenge: turning protest into power
The 377-seat projection demonstrated the extraordinary potential of Reform’s political insurgency.
But it also highlighted the biggest challenge facing Farage.
Winning votes is one thing.
Turning those votes into a stable governing majority is another.
Reform’s rapid expansion into local government has placed its candidates under much greater scrutiny. Voters are now able to judge the party not only on national speeches and campaign promises but also on its performance in councils.
That matters because the party’s opponents increasingly argue that Reform must prove it can govern rather than simply criticise.
Farage has repeatedly insisted that Britain needs a fundamental political change.
The question now is whether Reform can turn that message into a sustainable electoral coalition.
The 377-seat dream is not dead — but it is no longer today’s polling reality
The dramatic 377-seat projection should therefore be understood as a snapshot of an extraordinary moment in Reform’s rise rather than a reliable prediction of the next election.
At the time, the numbers suggested Labour was facing an almost unprecedented electoral collapse.
Today, the picture is much more complicated.
Labour has recovered substantially in some MRP models. The Conservatives have also returned to contention. Reform remains a major force but has seen its projected seat total fall sharply from the heights recorded earlier in 2026.
And yet the central message for Britain’s political establishment remains the same.
The old two-party system is under enormous pressure.
The latest numbers do not show a settled political landscape. They show an electorate that can swing dramatically between parties and constituencies.
For Farage, that volatility is both the greatest opportunity and the greatest danger.
The road from five MPs to 377 was never going to be straightforward.
But if Reform can rebuild momentum, convert its polling strength into constituency victories and prevent the Conservative Party from reclaiming disaffected voters, the prospect of a major Reform breakthrough remains very real.
The 377-seat headline may no longer describe the latest polling picture.
But it remains a powerful reminder of just how quickly Nigel Farage changed the boundaries of what once seemed possible in British politics.