Reform UK supporters who hope the party will major sweeping victories in next week’s local elections will be cheered by a new YouGov poll which puts the it ahead of Labour and the Conservatives. Nigel Farage’s party is on 25% (+2) while Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch’s parties have gone backwards.
Labour is on 23% (-1) and the Tories are on 20% (-1).
The Liberal Democrats are further back on 16% (+2) while the Greens are on 10% (-1). In Prime Minister’s Questions today, Sir Keir claimed that Conservatives are plotting a deal with Reform behind Mrs Badenoch’s back.
He described the possibility of “a coalition between Reform and the Tories” under which Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick and Mr Farage “cook up a joint manifesto”. He said this would involve “NHS charging; a pro-Russia foreign policy; an end to workers’ rights”.
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This is an apparent reference to a recording in which Mr Jenrick tells students of a “nightmare scenario” at the next election in which “Keir Starmer sails in through the middle as a result of the two parties being disunited”. He said he was determined to “bring this coalition together and make sure we unite as a nation as well”.
Sir Keir claimed Mrs Badenoch had “lost control of her party”.
But the Tory leader used Prime Minister’s Questions to step up her attacks on Sir Keir for failing to stop abuse of people in the trans debate prior to last week’s landmark Supreme Court ruling on the definition of biological sex.
A Conservative spokesman said: “The Prime Minister refused to answer three clear questions put to him by the Leader of the Opposition: when did he change his mind that a trans woman is a woman; will he apologise to Rosie Duffield MP; and will he reappoint Baroness Falkner as chair of the EHRC. Keir Starmer needs to answer these critical questions as soon as possible, or women and girls will fear that they are going to be betrayed by the Labour party once again.”
Reform Overtakes Labour in Huge Poll Victory for Nigel Farage
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have been handed a major boost after a new polling picture suggested that the party could once again overtake Labour, underlining just how volatile Britain’s political landscape has become.
The latest figures come after a turbulent period for Reform, during which the party has faced intense scrutiny over its internal organisation, donations and leadership. Yet despite those difficulties, Farage has continued to insist that the party’s recent dip represents a temporary setback rather than the end of its momentum.
The wider polling picture remains mixed. One recent YouGov survey placed Labour ahead of Reform, while other measures have shown a much closer contest. That makes any individual poll less important than the broader trend: neither party currently has anything approaching a permanent hold over the electorate.
For Farage, however, any poll putting Reform ahead of Labour would provide an important political opportunity.
Farage seizes on renewed momentum
Reform’s rise has been one of the defining developments in British politics.
Farage has repeatedly argued that voters are becoming increasingly frustrated with the established parties and are looking for a political alternative prepared to challenge the existing system.
That message has resonated particularly strongly with voters concerned about immigration, taxation, public spending and Britain’s relationship with Europe.
But Reform’s recent difficulties have created questions about whether its momentum could be sustained.
Farage has responded by taking the campaign back to the country.
He has presented a programme for Reform’s first 100 days in government, focusing on issues including illegal migration, taxation, energy costs and higher education. The strategy is clearly designed to move the party beyond protest politics and encourage voters to consider what a Reform government might actually do.
A strong polling result would make that argument considerably easier.
Labour’s position is no longer secure
Labour has enjoyed a significant improvement in some recent polls since Andy Burnham became Prime Minister.
A recent YouGov survey conducted for The Times and Sky News put Labour on 27 per cent, with Reform on 22 per cent and the Conservatives on 20 per cent. Another Opinium poll placed Labour on 30 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent.
Those figures demonstrate that Labour currently has support capable of putting it ahead nationally.
But they also show that the gap is not enormous.
A movement of just a few percentage points can completely change the headline.
That is why Reform’s ability to regain first place would carry such political significance. It would suggest that Labour’s recent improvement had not permanently changed the balance between the two parties.
It would also provide Farage with an answer to those who have argued that Reform has already peaked.
The “peak Reform” argument
For months, one of the central questions surrounding Farage has been whether Reform’s rapid rise has reached its natural limit.
The party’s supporters reject that interpretation.
Farage himself has described the recent period as a “trough” rather than a peak, arguing that Reform’s underlying support remains strong and that the party can recover once it returns to a more disciplined campaign.
That claim is now being tested.
Reform’s earlier polling advantage was built on dissatisfaction with the government and growing concern about immigration. But once Labour changed leadership, the political environment shifted.
Burnham’s arrival gave Labour an opportunity to reconnect with voters who had become disillusioned with the party.
The question is whether that recovery can last.
Immigration remains central
Immigration continues to be one of Reform’s strongest political issues.
Farage has made stopping small-boat crossings one of his central promises, alongside tighter controls on illegal migration and major changes to the asylum system.
The issue has particular political importance because voters can understand it immediately. Images of boats crossing the Channel and debates over asylum accommodation have become part of the wider argument about whether successive governments have control over Britain’s borders.
Reform argues that the established parties have failed to resolve the problem.
Labour has attempted to demonstrate that it can reduce crossings while operating within Britain’s legal obligations.
The Conservatives are also trying to regain credibility on the issue.
That creates a three-way contest in which Farage is attempting to establish Reform as the party most associated with tougher immigration policies.
Brexit returns to the political battlefield
Another major development has been the reopening of Britain’s debate about Europe.
Burnham’s willingness to discuss the possibility of closer relations with the European Union has given Farage an issue that helped define his political career.
For Reform, any serious discussion about reversing elements of Brexit creates an opportunity.
Farage can argue that voters who supported leaving the EU are once again being asked to defend that decision.
The issue could therefore become more important as the next general election approaches.
It also gives Reform a way to differentiate itself from Labour, the Conservatives and other parties.
The Conservative problem
Reform’s position is complicated by the continuing struggle between Farage and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives.
Badenoch has now ruled out a pact with Reform and is attempting to rebuild the Conservative Party independently.
That means the right of British politics remains divided.
From the Reform perspective, the ideal scenario would be to attract enough Conservative voters to establish itself as the dominant force on the right.
But the Conservatives still have a large national organisation and a substantial parliamentary history.
If Badenoch’s strategy succeeds, Reform could face a much tougher electoral contest.
If it fails, Farage could find himself with an opportunity to absorb a significant proportion of the Conservative vote.
The polling battle between the two parties will therefore be closely watched.
The financial controversy remains a challenge
The latest polling developments come at an awkward moment for Reform because the party is still dealing with scrutiny over its handling of potential donations.
Reform’s internal investigation concluded that the specific allegations examined did not establish breaches of electoral law, although it acknowledged weaknesses in internal procedures and said changes were required.
Police investigations remain separate.
For Farage, this creates a political problem even if the party ultimately faces no legal consequences.
Reform’s entire argument depends partly on presenting itself as an alternative to the established political system.
That means supporters and opponents alike can reasonably expect strong standards of transparency.
Farage has responded by promising greater professionalism and tighter procedures.
The party now has to demonstrate that those promises translate into practice.
From protest party to potential government
Perhaps the biggest change in Reform’s political position is that voters are increasingly being asked to consider it as a potential governing party.
That changes everything.
When Reform was primarily a protest movement, voters could support it to express dissatisfaction without necessarily believing it would run the country.
Now Farage is explicitly campaigning for government.
He has spoken about his first 100 days in office. He has expanded the party’s local presence. He has invested heavily in campaigning and communications.
That means voters can legitimately ask more detailed questions.
How would Reform pay for its tax plans?
How would it reform the NHS?
How would it deal with public services?
How would it handle Britain’s international relationships?
How would its immigration proposals operate within existing law?
The more successful Reform becomes, the more difficult it becomes to answer those questions with slogans alone.
A poll is not an election
Despite the excitement surrounding any poll showing Reform ahead, there is an important qualification.
National voting-intention figures do not determine who becomes Prime Minister.
Britain’s first-past-the-post system means that the geographical distribution of support is crucial.
A party can win a substantial national vote share without securing a corresponding number of seats.
This is particularly important for Reform, which is attempting to convert widespread support into constituency victories across England, Wales and Scotland.
The party’s local election performances have given it a much stronger base than it previously possessed.
But the next general election will be fought constituency by constituency.
That is where Reform’s real test will come.
The battle is wide open
The latest polling developments underline one thing above all else: Britain’s political landscape remains extraordinarily fluid.
Labour has recovered under Burnham.
Reform remains a major challenger.
The Conservatives are attempting to rebuild.
The Greens and other smaller parties are competing for voters who previously supported the major parties.
Nobody can know how that landscape will look when voters eventually go to the polls.
For Farage, however, a return to first place would be enormously useful politically.
It would allow him to argue that Reform’s earlier rise was not a temporary protest against Labour but evidence of a deeper realignment.
It would also increase pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives to respond to Reform’s agenda.
The next phase of the political battle will therefore be less about whether Reform can generate attention and more about whether it can sustain support.
Farage has already demonstrated that he can dominate Britain’s political conversation.
The bigger challenge is converting that visibility into lasting electoral strength.
A poll showing Reform ahead of Labour would not settle that question.
But it would send a powerful signal that the contest remains wide open — and that Nigel Farage’s ambitions for Reform UK are still very much alive.