Blow for Nigel Farage as Reform UK lose seat to Labour with big vote swing
Nigel Farage has suffered a fresh electoral setback after Reform UK lost a county council seat to Labour in a closely fought by-election, handing Sir Keir Starmer’s party a significant local victory and raising new questions about whether Reform can sustain the momentum behind its rapid rise in British politics.
Labour candidate Jane Lennie won the Shepshed division of Leicestershire County Council on Thursday, overturning Reform’s victory in the area at the previous county council election in May 2025.
The result represents a notable reversal for Farage’s party, which had secured 45 per cent of the vote in the division at the previous contest. This time, Reform candidate Stuart Brian Wood finished second, with Labour moving ahead after a substantial increase in its share of the vote.
Lennie secured 32.8 per cent, narrowly ahead of Wood on 31.3 per cent. The Conservatives finished third with 23.1 per cent, while Restore Britain received 6.4 per cent. The Liberal Democrats and Greens each recorded 3.2 per cent.
Labour’s share increased by 14.9 percentage points compared with the previous election, while Reform’s fell by 13.6 points. The figures represent a substantial shift in a division that had previously backed Farage’s party decisively.
For Labour, the victory offers an encouraging result at a time when the party is attempting to rebuild support following a difficult period in national politics. For Reform, it is a reminder that electoral gains are not guaranteed, even in areas where the party has previously established a strong presence.
However, the result should be considered in context. A single council by-election cannot establish that national support for Reform is collapsing or that Labour has begun a sustained recovery across the country. It does, nevertheless, provide both parties with an important result to examine as they prepare for the next general election.
Reform loses a seat it won with 45 per cent
The Shepshed result is particularly significant because Reform had emerged from the previous county council election with a commanding position in the division.
In May 2025, the party secured 45 per cent of the vote, demonstrating its ability to attract voters who wanted an alternative to the established political parties. Its performance formed part of a wider breakthrough in local elections, when Reform made substantial gains and became the largest group on Leicestershire County Council.
Thursday’s result was markedly different.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage (Image: Getty)
Labour moved from 18 per cent of the vote at the previous contest to 32.8 per cent, allowing Lennie to take the seat. Reform, meanwhile, experienced a decline that was large enough to push it into second place.
The Conservatives also saw their share fall, losing 2.4 percentage points to finish on 23.1 per cent. The Liberal Democrats dropped 3.4 points, while the Greens fell by 1.9 points.
The figures suggest that the contest was not simply a straightforward transfer of support from Reform to Labour. Several parties recorded lower shares, while Labour achieved the largest increase.
Without more detailed information about turnout, individual voter movements and the campaign issues that mattered most locally, it is impossible to determine precisely why the result changed.
Nevertheless, the outcome will attract attention because it demonstrates that Reform’s previous success in Leicestershire did not make the seat secure.
The by-election was triggered by the resignation of Reform councillor Helen Butler in August. That created an opportunity for rival parties to challenge Reform’s position in a division where it had previously performed strongly.
Labour seized that opportunity, turning a relatively weak previous showing into a winning result.
A warning for Nigel Farage?
For Farage, the loss presents a political challenge at a time when Reform is seeking to establish itself as a serious contender for power rather than simply a protest movement.
The party’s rise has been fuelled by dissatisfaction with the established political order, particularly over immigration, public services, taxation and the direction of the economy.
Reform has sought to attract voters who feel that successive governments have failed to deliver meaningful change. Its electoral success has placed pressure on both Labour and the Conservatives, forcing them to respond to the party’s positions and its growing appeal among sections of the electorate.
But translating that support into lasting electoral success requires more than strong national messaging. Parties must recruit credible local candidates, maintain active constituency organisations and demonstrate that they can respond to the priorities of individual communities.
Local elections can be especially demanding because voters may judge candidates on local services, road maintenance, council finances and the performance of the authority itself, rather than on national political debates alone.
Reform’s loss in Shepshed therefore raises questions about whether its previous gains can be consolidated.
The party remains the largest group on Leicestershire County Council and runs a minority administration. The by-election does not overturn that wider position, but it does underline the challenges involved in maintaining support once a party moves from campaigning against the establishment to exercising local authority.
For Farage, the task is to ensure that disappointed voters do not conclude that Reform offers little more than an alternative set of political slogans.
At the same time, one defeat does not invalidate the party’s wider electoral strategy. Reform may yet retain strong support in other areas, and the reasons behind the Shepshed result may be specific to the local contest.
The significance lies in what happens next. If similar reversals occur in other divisions, Reform’s leadership may face more serious questions about its ability to convert national attention into durable local support.
Labour receives a much-needed boost
The result offers Labour an opportunity to demonstrate that it can still win over voters who previously supported Reform.
Lennie’s victory represents a substantial improvement on Labour’s previous performance in Shepshed. Increasing its vote share from 18 per cent to 32.8 per cent is a notable achievement, particularly in a division where Reform had established itself as the leading party.
For Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s party, the result provides a positive local headline amid a broader contest for political credibility.
Labour has faced pressure over its handling of the economy, public services and other major policy questions. Its relationship with voters who expected rapid improvements after the general election remains an important challenge.
A local victory cannot resolve those wider problems, but it gives Labour evidence that its electoral position is not necessarily fixed.
The party will hope to use the result to demonstrate that Reform can be challenged directly, including in areas where Farage’s movement previously made significant gains.
The outcome may also encourage Labour organisers to concentrate on seats where Reform’s support appears vulnerable. However, identifying those opportunities will require more than extrapolating from one result. Local demographics, candidate quality, turnout and the issues dominating each campaign can all influence the outcome.
Labour will need to show that its improved performance reflects a broader willingness among voters to return to the party, rather than a temporary shift caused by the particular circumstances of the Shepshed by-election.
For Starmer, the challenge is to turn isolated victories into a more convincing national recovery.
National polling offers a mixed picture
The Shepshed result comes amid a changing picture in national voting-intention polls, with Labour recovering some ground against Reform in several recent surveys cited in the original report.
A YouGov poll for The Times and Sky News, conducted on October 11 and 12, placed Labour on 24 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform on 21 per cent.
The figures put the three parties close together, with the differences within the poll’s margin of error. The survey also placed Reform at its joint-lowest level in YouGov’s tracker during the current Parliament, according to the supplied report.
A separate polling average published by PollCheck on October 15 put Labour on 27.1 per cent, Reform on 22.1 per cent and the Conservatives on 21.7 per cent.
Although the two sets of figures differ, both suggest a competitive political environment in which no party can assume that it has an unassailable lead.
The results also demonstrate why individual polls must be interpreted carefully. Polling averages combine multiple surveys, while individual polls can produce different results depending on methodology, sampling and the timing of interviews.
Most importantly, national voting intentions are not the same as local election results. A council by-election reflects the choices of a particular electorate in a particular set of circumstances. It cannot establish how the entire country would vote in a general election.
Nevertheless, the broader polling picture adds context to the Shepshed result. Reform’s national position may remain competitive, but the party is operating in an environment where Labour and the Conservatives are also fighting to recover support.
For Farage, maintaining momentum will require demonstrating that Reform can withstand local challenges while continuing to appeal to voters nationally.
For Labour, the opportunity is to convince the electorate that its improved polling and local victories reflect a genuine recovery rather than a short-lived fluctuation.
Conservatives remain caught between Labour and Reform
The Conservatives’ third-place finish in Shepshed highlights the continuing difficulties facing the party as it attempts to rebuild its electoral standing.
With 23.1 per cent of the vote, the Conservatives finished behind both Labour and Reform. Their share fell by 2.4 percentage points compared with the previous contest.
The result illustrates the difficult position the party faces in areas where Reform has attracted voters dissatisfied with the traditional political establishment, while Labour remains capable of winning support from other sections of the electorate.
The Conservatives must determine how to regain voters who have moved towards Reform without alienating those who remain committed to the party’s existing identity and priorities.
That challenge is particularly important on issues such as immigration, taxation, public spending and national identity, where Reform has sought to position itself as a more forceful alternative.
At the same time, the Conservatives must explain why voters who previously supported them should return after 14 years in government between 2010 and 2024.
The Shepshed result offers no simple answer. The party’s decline was smaller than Reform’s, but it was still unable to convert the contest into a victory.
If the national political landscape remains fragmented, the Conservatives could find themselves competing with Reform for similar voters while also trying to regain support from people who have turned towards Labour or other parties.
The outcome is another indication that the traditional three-party contest has become more complicated, with smaller parties also competing for attention and votes.
Reform’s local gains are not guaranteed to last
Reform’s breakthrough in the May 2025 local elections was one of the defining developments in the party’s rise. Its gains demonstrated the extent to which voters were willing to abandon established parties and support a movement promising a different approach.
Yet the transition from winning seats to retaining them can be difficult.
Once a party enters local government, it becomes responsible for decisions that affect everyday life. Residents may judge it on the condition of local roads, waste collection, social care, budget decisions and the responsiveness of councillors.
Those responsibilities can expose tensions between campaign promises and the practical limitations of council finances and legal duties.
Leicestershire’s minority administration adds another layer of complexity. Reform’s position as the largest group does not mean it can automatically implement every policy it favours. Minority administrations must work within the council’s political arithmetic and the financial constraints facing local authorities.
A by-election loss does not necessarily indicate dissatisfaction with Reform’s overall record, but it gives opponents an opportunity to argue that the party’s support is less secure than its earlier gains suggested.
The question for Reform is whether it can build a consistent record of local performance while maintaining the national campaign that helped it attract voters in the first place.
Its rivals, meanwhile, will be looking for further opportunities to challenge the party in areas where it previously appeared dominant.
One by-election does not decide the next general election
The next general election must be held by 2029, leaving the parties with time to reshape their strategies, recruit candidates and attempt to rebuild public confidence.
The Shepshed result will be interpreted by all three major parties as they assess their prospects. Labour can point to a significant increase in its vote share. Reform must confront the loss of a seat it previously won comfortably. The Conservatives face another disappointing result as they attempt to recover from their recent electoral decline.
But it would be premature to treat the contest as a decisive turning point.
Local by-elections often produce results that differ from national trends, and a single seat cannot predict the outcome of a general election held years later. Campaign issues can change, party leaderships can evolve and voters can change their minds.
The result is best understood as a warning against complacency.
For Farage, it demonstrates that Reform must work to retain support rather than assume that dissatisfaction with Labour and the Conservatives will automatically translate into votes for his party.
For Starmer, it offers encouragement but also creates pressure to prove that Labour can deliver the improvements voters expect.
For the Conservatives, the contest reinforces the need to establish a convincing identity in a political landscape increasingly shaped by competition from both Labour and Reform.
Ultimately, Shepshed has delivered a clear local victory for Labour, but its wider significance remains uncertain. The result gives Starmer’s party a boost and represents a setback for Farage, yet the national contest remains open.
The coming months will show whether Labour can build on its improved performance, whether Reform can recover lost ground and whether the Conservatives can find a way to compete effectively against both.
For now, one conclusion is unavoidable: the electoral momentum that carried Reform to major local gains in 2025 does not guarantee that the party will hold every seat it won. In British politics, yesterday’s breakthrough can quickly become tomorrow’s battle to survive.