Andy Burnham has made a few gaffes in recent days, but don’t underestimate him. He’s just scored a brilliant victory.
Watch out, Andy Burnham is winning victories where it matters (Image: Getty)
The PM’s recent rollcall of include stupidly putting social security above the defence of the realm, stumbling into the Manchester City scandal, and being publicly upbraided by MI5 for claiming Russia influenced the Brexit referendum result. But Burnham’s gaffes mask the fact that his broader strategy is working rather nicely right now. It could put him in the box seat if he calls a snap election, as many expect.
Burnham had a big win last week when Labour retained Keir Starmer‘s former parliamentary seat in the St Pancras and Holborn by-election. Frankly, Labour doesn’t need another backbench MP. It has 403 and most are more trouble than they’re worth. But it really didn’t want Green Party leader Zack Polanski rocking up at Westminster on the back of a spectacular victory. That would have been a slap in the face for Burnham and put a stop to his honeymoon.
The Greens hoovered up support from Lefties furious over Keir Starmer’s Gaza policy, but now they’re the ones tearing themselves apart. Hard-left activists, the sort who flocked to Labour under Jeremy Corbyn, brought their anti-Israel obsessions with them, plunging the Greens into an existential crisis.
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Their stance that “Zionism is racism” effectively denies Israel’s right to exist, while exposing Polanski’s weakness in failing to stand up to it. The Greens are descending into civil war as the old guard struggles to save the party from the Corbynites, anti-semites and Islamists. Zack Polanski is on resignation watch. It’s an ugly spectacle, but a golden opportunity for Burnham.
Until recently, there was a growing assumption that two-party politics was dead and the next government could only be formed through some kind of alliance. That raised the terrifying prospect of a Labour-Green-Lib Dem coalition dragging Britain even further towards the left, while shutting out the right.
Burnham has every reason to want that prospect buried, and he’s taking action. Labour councils who share power with the Greens have been told to terminate agreements unless they condemn the “Zionism is racism” policy. Why share when there’s a chance you can grab it all for yourself?
Burnham can now position himself as the undisputed champion of the left, picking up Green cast-offs while raiding the dwindling ranks of disillusioned Lib Dem voters.
The PM is blowing all the Leftie dog whistles. Closer alignment with the EU, floating another Brexit referendum, rail and water nationalisation, more power for the unions and a preference for social security spending over defence. It may sound like madness to many of us, but left-wing voters have been crying out for this ever since Margaret Thatcher burst their bubble. Burnham understands his base and is giving it what they want.
And there’s another casualty: Angela Rayner. She’s the darling of Labour’s left, keeping the flame of traditional, union-friendly, working-class politics burning under Starmer. Sadly for Red Ange, Burnham is now trampling all over her territory. No wonder she’s resorted to attacking Shabana Mahmood.
It also helps that Burnham is a man, and a beery, blokey man to boot. Labour can now leave the whole lady boss thing to the Tories, and stay in their traditional comfort zone.
None of this guarantees Burnham an election victory. But Labour is edging it in the polls, the Greens are self-combusting and a Tory-Reform alliance looks off the cards, as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage publicly slug it out.
If two-party politics really is back, Burnham could be the biggest beneficiary. He’s on course to own the entire left, while the right tear themselves in two. That snap election must look tempting.
Britons warned of huge ‘new tax’ if UK rejoins EU – ‘billions back to Brussels’
A push to reverse Brexit is gaining momentum, but it comes at a high cost.
Andy Burnham is preparing for a UK-EU summit next month (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Britain will have to make radically greater payments into the European Union if the country rejoins with the bill potentially hitting £41billion, according to a eurosceptic think tank. The Bow Group has calculated the UK gross contribution could range from £28billion to £41billion – much more than the £14.4billion paid in 2019. This is based on the assumption there is no possibility the EU would agree to restore the permanent “rebate” negotiated by Margaret Thatcher.
Her former aide Lord Redwood, warned: “The UK would need to impose a large new tax; we cannot afford to go in. We would worry markets more with yet more borrowing. The last thing we need is yet more spending and laws from Brussels.”
According to the House of Commons Library, in 2016 – the year Britons voted to leave the EU – the UK made a gross contribution to the EU Budget of £13.1billion and a net contribution of £9.6billion.
Ben Harris-Quinney, who chairs the Bow Group, said: “Despite promises to accept Brexit the Labour party now seems to be set on the path of quietly taking Britain back into the EU. It’s important that the British public understands that doing so would be far more costly than our previous membership, to say nothing of a likely requirement to join the euro, far greater regulation, and further decades of uncontrolled borders.”
Eurosceptics argue the EU wants the UK to return to boost the finances of the bloc. When Czech PM Andrej Babis was asked if would support the return of Britain to the EU, he said: “Yes of course. We need more money.”
Conservative shadow foreign minister Wendy Morton pointed to his words, saying: “Andy Burnham can’t find the cash to fund our defence, yet he seems comfortable with the idea of handing over billions to Brussels. Instead of trying to turn back the clock to 2016, he should focus on a plan for taking the country forward.”
David Campbell Bannerman fiercely opposes EU re-entry (Image: Paul Marriott)
A Reform UK spokesman warned: “Andy Burnham’s plan to reopen the divisions of the Brexit debate will not only betray the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit, but will also cost this country dearly. Shackling us to a crumbling bloc whose share of the global economy is rapidly declining will be an economic disaster for Britain, forcing us to become a rule-taker yet again and threatening £164billion worth of post-Brexit trade agreements.”
However, a spokesperson for the pro-EU group Best for Britain said it was “unlikely” the UK could not get “some for of rebate”, adding: “It isn’t an accurate calculation of the cost to the taxpayer, and ignores the £92billion GDP growth to our economy that will be gained from EU membership. A gross calculation of what the UK might have to pay as an EU member is like submitting a tax return without any business expenses, or claiming that your turnover is net profit. But voters facing increased living costs, and businesses swamped by red tape, will be relieved to hear that pro-Brexit voices are finally taking the prospect of UK membership of the EU seriously.”
David Campbell Bannerman, a former MEP who served as deputy leader of UKIP insisted that EU re-entry was “totally unaffordable”. He said: “We would be mad to rejoin and anyone trying to rejoin should be prosecuted for misconduct in public office.”
A Government spokesperson said: “These figures are completely speculative. We are building an ambitious, close relationship with the EU that will strengthen our economy and create more opportunities for young people and communities across the whole UK.”