Andy Burnham is preparing for a UK-EU summit next month (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Britain will have to make radically greater payments into the European Union if the country rejoins with the bill potentially hitting £41billion, according to a eurosceptic think tank. The Bow Group has calculated the UK gross contribution could range from £28billion to £41billion – much more than the £14.4billion paid in 2019. This is based on the assumption there is no possibility the EU would agree to restore the permanent “rebate” negotiated by Margaret Thatcher.
Her former aide Lord Redwood, warned: “The UK would need to impose a large new tax; we cannot afford to go in. We would worry markets more with yet more borrowing. The last thing we need is yet more spending and laws from Brussels.”
According to the House of Commons Library, in 2016 – the year Britons voted to leave the EU – the UK made a gross contribution to the EU Budget of £13.1billion and a net contribution of £9.6billion.
Ben Harris-Quinney, who chairs the Bow Group, said: “Despite promises to accept Brexit the Labour party now seems to be set on the path of quietly taking Britain back into the EU. It’s important that the British public understands that doing so would be far more costly than our previous membership, to say nothing of a likely requirement to join the euro, far greater regulation, and further decades of uncontrolled borders.”
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Eurosceptics argue the EU wants the UK to return to boost the finances of the bloc. When Czech PM Andrej Babis was asked if would support the return of Britain to the EU, he said: “Yes of course. We need more money.”
Conservative shadow foreign minister Wendy Morton pointed to his words, saying: “Andy Burnham can’t find the cash to fund our defence, yet he seems comfortable with the idea of handing over billions to Brussels. Instead of trying to turn back the clock to 2016, he should focus on a plan for taking the country forward.”
David Campbell Bannerman fiercely opposes EU re-entry (Image: Paul Marriott)
A Reform UK spokesman warned: “Andy Burnham’s plan to reopen the divisions of the Brexit debate will not only betray the 17.4 million people who voted for Brexit, but will also cost this country dearly. Shackling us to a crumbling bloc whose share of the global economy is rapidly declining will be an economic disaster for Britain, forcing us to become a rule-taker yet again and threatening £164billion worth of post-Brexit trade agreements.”
However, a spokesperson for the pro-EU group Best for Britain said it was “unlikely” the UK could not get “some for of rebate”, adding: “It isn’t an accurate calculation of the cost to the taxpayer, and ignores the £92billion GDP growth to our economy that will be gained from EU membership. A gross calculation of what the UK might have to pay as an EU member is like submitting a tax return without any business expenses, or claiming that your turnover is net profit. But voters facing increased living costs, and businesses swamped by red tape, will be relieved to hear that pro-Brexit voices are finally taking the prospect of UK membership of the EU seriously.”
David Campbell Bannerman, a former MEP who served as deputy leader of UKIP insisted that EU re-entry was “totally unaffordable”. He said: “We would be mad to rejoin and anyone trying to rejoin should be prosecuted for misconduct in public office.”
A Government spokesperson said: “These figures are completely speculative. We are building an ambitious, close relationship with the EU that will strengthen our economy and create more opportunities for young people and communities across the whole UK.”
Britons Warned of Huge ‘New Tax’ if UK Rejoins EU – ‘Billions Back to Brussels’
Britain’s renewed debate over rejoining the European Union has brought an uncomfortable financial question back into the spotlight: how much would membership cost British taxpayers, and would the economic benefits outweigh the bill?
As Prime Minister Andy Burnham pushes for closer relations with Brussels, critics have warned that a return to full EU membership could leave the UK facing annual contributions worth tens of billions of pounds. One estimate from the Eurosceptic Bow Group puts Britain’s potential gross contribution at between £28 billion and £41 billion a year, depending on the assumptions used. <Cite refs={[“turn947771search0″,”turn947771search1”]}/>
The figures have fuelled warnings that taxpayers could ultimately face pressure for higher taxes or further government borrowing to finance membership. But the projected contribution is not an agreed price, and no decision has been made to take Britain back into the EU.
The debate is therefore about more than a single number. It concerns the terms on which Britain might rejoin, the financial arrangements it could negotiate, the economic effects of closer integration and whether voters would consider the overall package worthwhile.
Why the Cost of EU Membership Is Back in the Headlines
The issue has returned to the political agenda after Burnham called for Britain to examine its long-term relationship with the EU, including the possibility of full membership.
Speaking in Parliament on October 12, the Prime Minister argued that Britain should consider the available options rather than assume that the current arrangements must remain permanent. These options include closer cooperation through a customs union or single market, as well as the more far-reaching possibility of rejoining the bloc. <Cite refs={[“turn947771news12″,”turn947771search2”]}/>
The government’s immediate focus, however, is on strengthening practical cooperation. A UK-EU summit scheduled for November 20, 2026, is expected to provide an opportunity to discuss areas such as food standards, emissions trading and opportunities for young people to live, work and study across borders. <Cite refs={[“turn947771search7″,”turn947771news12”]}/>
Closer cooperation does not automatically mean full EU membership. A trade agreement, an arrangement involving the customs union and membership of the single market would each have different economic, regulatory and financial consequences.
Nevertheless, Burnham’s willingness to discuss the possibility of going further has prompted opponents to examine the potential costs of a complete return.
For those who voted to leave in 2016, the prospect of renewed payments to Brussels raises questions about whether Brexit’s central financial and political objectives would be reversed. Supporters of closer European ties counter that the cost of membership must be assessed alongside the potential gains from trade, investment and economic growth.
Could Britain Really Face a £41 Billion Annual Bill?
The Bow Group estimate cited in recent reporting suggests that the UK’s gross annual contribution could range from £28 billion to £41 billion if Britain rejoined the EU without securing a return of its former rebate. <Cite refs={[“turn947771search0″,”turn947771search1”]}/>
The distinction between a gross contribution and the final cost to taxpayers is crucial.
A gross contribution is the amount a country pays into the EU budget before accounting for money flowing back through programmes, funding arrangements and other mechanisms. The net contribution is lower because it takes account of the financial benefits and receipts that return to the country.
Britain’s former rebate, negotiated by Margaret Thatcher in the 1980s, reduced the UK’s payments to the European budget. Whether a future British government could secure a comparable arrangement would depend on negotiations with EU member states.
Critics argue that Britain should not assume it would be allowed to return on the same financial terms it enjoyed before Brexit. Other member states would have their own priorities, and the conditions of any future accession would have to be negotiated.
However, the £28 billion to £41 billion range remains an estimate based on particular assumptions, not an official EU invoice or an agreed membership fee. The final amount could not be established without knowing the terms of accession, the applicable budget rules and the financial arrangements negotiated by both sides.
It would therefore be misleading to present the upper figure as a confirmed annual bill that Britain would inevitably pay.