The September inflation rate is watched closely by economists as it is typically used to decide the level that many benefits will increase.
The first Budget during Andy Burnham’s tenure is nearing (Image: Getty)
The rate of Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation rose to 3.5% in September from 3.1% in August, the Office for National Statistics said. UK inflation accelerated last month as higher fuel and energy costs continue to push up the cost of living, economists think. The September inflation rate will be closely watched by economists, as it is typically used to determine the level at which many benefits will increase.
Overall inflation has been rising over the summer, fuelled by the Middle East energy shock, which has pushed up fuel and household energy prices. August’s CPI rate came in at 3.1%, above the Bank of England’s 2% target. Still, the September figure is the highest CPI rate since the 3.6% recorded in October last year, and came in above the 3.4% that most economists had been expecting for the month.
Prices across the transport industry were the biggest contributor to higher inflation last month, particularly at the pump. Overall, motor fuels soared by 30% in the year to September, up from a 23% annual rise in August, ONS data showed.
Between August and September, average petrol prices rose by 8.2p to 169.5p per litre, which was the highest price recorded in around four years. Diesel also surged by 10.7p to 192.5p, the highest price since July 2022.
According to RAC figures, average diesel prices surpassed 200p a litre for the first time ever at the beginning of this month. Fuel costs have been soaring because of the Iran war which has squeezed global oil and gas supplies.
Rob Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, UK economists for Pantheon, said they expect higher motor fuel prices to have been a major contributor to higher inflation in September. The economists also said prices will have risen after a temporary summer VAT cut on family attractions such as theme parks and zoos ended in September.
Inflation has been fuelled by conflict in the Middle East, which has increased the price of fuel. (Image: Getty)
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently warned that cost-of-living crises hit poorer households harder, who spend a larger share of their income on everyday essentials such as food and energy.
Meanwhile, the September inflation rate is typically used to decide the level of increase for many benefits, such as universal credit, tax credits and disability benefits.
This rate is also a key part of the pension triple lock, which is used to decide how much pensions will increase by in the following April. But the increase is based on either this inflation rate, average earnings growth between May and July, or 2.5%.
State pensions are therefore widely expected to increase by 3.9% next year, based on wage growth figures already published by the ONS.