Nigel Farage says he knows exactly when he will destroy Kemi Badenoch and the Conservatives for good, but Jonathan Walker asks if his powers are waning.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage and Kemi Badenoch (Image: -)
Nigel Farage believes he can destroy the Conservative Party – and he knows exactly when it will happen. May 8 is the day that Kemi Badenoch’s dreams of becoming Prime Minister will finally come to an end, according to the Reform UK leader. But it’s worse than that. This is the day that Mrs Badenoch, her supporters and voters in general realise that the Conservatives are finished as a political force.
The party of Churchill and Thatcher will effectively come to an end, and all that remains will be a bluer version of the Liberal Democrats – winning the odd seat but not to be taken seriously. That’s the plan, anyway. It all hinges on elections taking place on May 7, involving the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments and local councils across England.
Mr Farage believes the Conservatives will suffer devastating losses across the country, while Reform will make gains.
There’s talk of Reform winning control of Wales, a former Labour stronghold, as well as cities such as Birmingham.
But even if these victories don’t materialise, Reform can still win big simply by proving that it is the only real opposition to Labour (on the right, at least – the Greens, and Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru, might offer an alternative on the left).
May 8 is when most of the votes will be counted and the results announced. In an interview with the Spectator this week, Mr Farage said: “The Tories have had a good run for 200 years. I think we wake up on May 8 and realise that the Conservative party’s gone, that the ‘Kemi bounce’ was nothing more than a Westminster myth and that the Tories have been obliterated in Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex.
“The only real opposition to socialism, leftism, Islamism is Reform. And if that moment comes, there’ll be a large chunk of Conservative voters that will switch.”
He needs his prediction to come true, because his plan for getting into Number 10 depends on finishing off the Tories before the next general election campaign even begins.
Right now, the right and centre-right vote remains split between Reform and the Conservatives, even though Reform is in the lead. And if that continues, Labour could manage to remain in power – despite all the scandals, splits and mistakes engulfing the government.
So Reform’s victory over the Tories has to happen first. After that, it can go on to defeat Labour.
But Mr Farage has a problem. As he acknowledged, some experts, and some sections of the media, believe we are seeing a “Kemi bounce”. In other words, things might be going in the wrong direction for Reform. They are getting slightly less popular, while the Tories are making progress.
This is partly because people at Westminster have become increasingly impressed by Kemi Badenoch, who had a rocky start as Tory leader. Week after week, she gets the better of Sir Keir Starmer in the House of Commons. She’s announced some popular policies, like abolishing stamp duty. She sounds impressive when she delivers speeches.
That’s the view among many politicians and journalists, at least, and Mr Farage fears it might start to influence the public. He wants to bring it to an end.
Secondly, there is some evidence that support for Reform really has fallen – even though it remains clearly the most popular party.
Polling expert Peter Kellner says around 33% of voters said they backed reform last October, and now it’s around 28%.
Writing in his email newsletter, the former BBC journalist said: “Nigel Farage’s ratings have slipped, and signs have multiplied of voters’ appetite to vote tactically to defeat Reform candidates … Reform has slipped back five points since its peak.”
There are various reasons for this, but part of the problem is that some voters actually like Reform less, and Nigel Farage too, the more that they see of them.
Of course, other voters like them more. There are millions who agree with Reform, and want Nigel to be Prime Minister. But he can be a divisive figure.
So Mr Farage doesn’t have victory in the bag. He insists the “Kemi bounce” has been imagined by over-excited journalists, but that remains to be seen.
May 8, however, could be the day that Nigel is proved right. We may learn that the Conservative Party really is finished – and Nigel is on his way to Number 10. It all depends on what voters choose to do on May 7.