The Greens’ open borders plan would add 4.4million people to Britain in five years, a bombshell report warns – as rivals brand it “reckless.”
Under Polanski, anyone held in immigration detention would be released (Image: Getty)
Britain’s population would surge by 4.4million in five years under a Green Party government, according to a damning new report that lays bare the stark divide between the parties on immigration.
The analysis, by City investment bank Panmure Liberum, estimates that Zack Polanski’s open borders policy would drive net migration to around 900,000 a year — pushing the UK population from 71.5million in 2029 to 75.9million by 2034.
Compared with that projection, every other party looks restrictive. Reform UK would keep net migration to around 40,000 a year, adding roughly 200,000 to the population over the same five-year window, the Epxress understands, while the Conservatives would bring in around 160,000 a year, adding 800,000 in total. Labour, should it retain power, is forecast to add somewhere between one million and 1.3million over the course of the next parliament.
The uncertainty in Labour’s range hinges on whether Shabana Mahmood succeeds in applying her plan to extend the permanent residence qualification period — currently five years — to a decade. Extending it to those already living in the UK would hold the population increase closer to one million. Failing to do so pushes the figure towards 1.3million.
Today’s population sits at 69.5million. The reported figures put that into context: Reform would take it to 71.7million, the Tories to 72.3million, and the Greens to 75.9million.
Green Party plans
Simon French, Panmure Liberum’s chief economist and a former Civil Service economic adviser, told the Daily Mail the gap between the parties was unlike anything he had seen in a quarter century of studying British migration.
“The spread of policies from the four leading UK parties could lead to a difference of more than four million in the UK population by the end of the next parliamentary cycle,” he said. “That extraordinary spread is because the policies of the Green Party and Reform UK are as diametrically opposite as anything I have seen in 25 years of analysing UK migration policy.”
The Greens have stated openly that in an ideal world “most border controls would not exist.” Under Polanski, anyone held in immigration detention would be released, illegal migrants would receive an amnesty and be folded into the welfare and healthcare system, and the broader framework would be rebuilt around the principle that every arrival is a citizen in waiting. Internal party documents describe ambitions to “establish a system that recognises that all migrants are treated as citizens in waiting and therefore supports and encourages them to put down roots in their new home.”
The party’s position, described by opponents as “financially reckless but also dangerous”, comes as the Greens are expected to make significant gains in next month’s local elections.
French noted that without migration, Britain’s population is essentially flat — deaths marginally outpace births, producing a natural decline of around 10,000 a year. The Office for National Statistics projects a 1.6million population rise over the next parliament based on net migration of 340,000 a year. The Green scenario would see that figure more than double.
“All the movement is net migration,” French said.
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Green response
A Green Party spokesman reportedly rejected the findings.
“These figures are made up nonsense and we’ve been given no idea how they are calculated,” he is understood to have said. “The Greens support a fair and managed migration system and successive governments have presided over a broken and unfair system.
“People are concerned about the impacts of immigration because of a massive affordability crisis, but unlike other parties we won’t scapegoat migrants for the unfairness created by our rigged economic system.”