The constituencies expected to elect a Reform UK MP have been named
Nigel Farage could become leader of the biggest party (Image: Getty)
The 188 constituencies set to elect a Reform UK MP have been named. A massive opinion poll has forecast which seats are likely to get a Reform UK MP at the next general election. And Nigel Farage’s party is set to score wins in every region of the country. Winning 188 seats would be a massive increase from the 2024 general election, when Reform won five.
It would make Mr Farage’s party the largest group in Parliament – with the Conservatives on 159. Labour would be left with just 89, a devastating defeat, while the Green Party would have 71 and the Liberal Democrats 61. These are the findings of a mammoth new poll by PLMR for Electoral Calculus. It’s what’s known as an MRP poll, which involves more people than the average survey and can predict the results more accurately.
However, no party would have a majority of the seats in the House of Commons. If these poll findings are correct, it suggests Reform and the Conservatives may have to work together to form a government.
Here are the seats that will return a Reform UK MP according to the poll:
- Aldershot
- Amber Valley
- Ashfield
- Ashford
- Ashton-under-Lyne
- Barnsley North
- Barnsley South
- Barrow and Furness
- Basildon and Billericay
- Basildon South and East Thurrock
- Basingstoke
- Bassetlaw
- Birmingham Erdington
- Birmingham Hodge Hill and Solihull North
- Birmingham Northfield
- Bishop Auckland
- Blackley and Middleton South
- Blackpool North and Fleetwood
- Blackpool South
- Bolsover
- Bolton North East
- Bolton South and Walkden
- Bolton West
- Boston and Skegness
- Bournemouth East
- Bournemouth West
- Bradford South
- Braintree
- Burnley
- Burton and Uttoxeter
- Bury North
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket
- Camborne and Redruth
- Cambridgeshire North East
- Cannock Chase
- Carlisle
- Castle Point
- Chatham and Aylesford
- Clacton
- Colne Valley
- Corby and East Northamptonshire
- Cornwall South East
- Coventry East
- Crawley
- Dagenham and Rainham
- Darlington
- Derby South
- Derbyshire North East
- Derbyshire South
- Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme
- Dorset South
- Dover and Deal
- Dudley
- Durham North
- Easington
- Erewash
- Exmouth and Exeter East
- Folkestone and Hythe
- Forest of Dean
- Gateshead Central and Whickham
- Gillingham and Rainham
- Gloucester
- Great Grimsby and Cleethorpes
- Great Yarmouth
- Halesowen
- Halifax
- Hartlepool
- Hastings and Rye
- Havant
- Hemel Hempstead
- Herefordshire North
- Herne Bay and Sandwich
- Hertford and Stortford
- Heywood and Middleton North
- High Peak
- Hornchurch and Upminster
- Houghton and Sunderland South
- Hull East
- Hull North and Cottingham
- Hull West and Haltemprice
- Hyndburn
- Ipswich
- Isle of Wight West
- Keighley and Ilkley
- Kettering
- Leeds East
- Leeds South West and Morley
- Leigh and Atherton
- Loughborough
- Louth and Horncastle
- Lowestoft
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire
- Maidstone and Malling
- Makerfield
- Mansfield
- Middlesbrough and Thornaby East
- Milton Keynes North
- Morecambe and Lunesdale
- Newcastle upon Tyne Central and West
- Newcastle upon Tyne East and Wallsend
- Newcastle-under-Lyme
- Newton Aycliffe and Spennymoor
- Norfolk North West
- Norfolk South
- Norfolk South West
- Normanton and Hemsworth
- Northampton South
- Norwich North
- Nottingham North and Kimberley
- Nuneaton
- Oldham East and Saddleworth
- Oldham West, Chadderton and Royton
- Ossett and Denby Dale
- Penistone and Stocksbridge
- Penrith and Solway
- Plymouth Moor View
- Plymouth Sutton and Devonport
- Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
- Preston
- Rawmarsh and Conisbrough
- Rayleigh and Wickford
- Redcar
- Redditch
- Rochdale
- Rochester and Strood
- Rossendale and Darwen
- Rother Valley
- Rotherham
- Scarborough and Whitby
- Scunthorpe
- Sherwood Forest
- Sittingbourne and Sheppey
- Smethwick
- Somerset North East and Hanham
- South Holland and The Deepings
- South Ribble
- South Shields
- Southampton Itchen
- Southampton Test
- Southend East and Rochford
- Spen Valley
- St Austell and Newquay
- St Helens North
- St Helens South and Whiston
- Stafford
- Staffordshire Moorlands
- Stalybridge and Hyde
- Stevenage
- Stockton North
- Stoke-on-Trent Central
- Stoke-on-Trent North
- Stourbridge
- Suffolk Coastal
- Sunderland Central
- Swindon North
- Swindon South
- Tamworth
- Telford
- Thanet East
- Thurrock
- Tipton and Wednesbury
- Tiverton and Minehead
- Wakefield and Rothwell
- Walsall and Bloxwich
- Warrington North
- Warwickshire North and Bedworth
- Washington and Gateshead South
- Wellingborough and Rushden
- West Bromwich
- Weston-super-Mare
- Wigan
- Wolverhampton North East
- Wolverhampton South East
- Worcester
- Worcestershire West
- Worthing West
- Alyn and Deeside
- Bridgend
- Clwyd East
- Clwyd North
- Gower
- Montgomeryshire and Glyndwr
- Neath and Swansea East
- Newport East
- Pembrokeshire Mid and South
- Torfaen
- Vale of Glamorgan
- Wrexham