The Conservatives would be reduced to 81 seats, with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Priti Patel both ousted.
Rachel Reeves and Angela Rayner could both lose their seats, the poll suggests (Image: PA)
Labour would be left with just 102 MPs if a general election were held today, a major MRP survey has found, as more than half of Sir Keir Starmer’s cabinet lose their seats, as well as heavyweight backbencher Angela Rayner.
The poll by More in Common, which surveyed over 15,000 voters, shows Reform UK on course for 324 seats, just short of a majority. The Conservatives would be reduced to 81 seats, with Tory leader Kemi Badenoch and Priti Patel both ousted. The Green Party would quadruple its representation to 22 seats.
Ed Miliband is also vulnerable (Image: Getty)
Reform would unseat 12 cabinet ministers, the Greens three and an independent one. Among the high-profile Labour losers are eight senior figures who won their seats in the July 2024 general election: Chancellor Rachel Reeves (Leeds West and Pudsey), Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley), Energy Secretary Ed Miliband (Doncaster North) and Defence Secretary John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough), all defeated by Reform; Chief Secretary to the Treasury Darren Jones (Bristol North West), Business Secretary Peter Kyle (Hove and Portslade) and Northern Ireland Secretary Hilary Benn (Leeds South), defeated by the Greens; and Health Secretary Wes Streeting (Ilford North), losing to an independent. Former deputy prime minister Angela Rayner (Ashton-under-Lyne) is also projected to lose to Reform.
Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer would hold Holborn and St Pancras comfortably, though with a significantly reduced majority, reports The Sunday Times. Deputy Prime Minister David Lammy clings on in Tottenham by just 1 %.
Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could also be at risk (Image: Getty)
The findings come less than a month before the May 7 local elections, where Labour faces heavy losses, including at least four London councils (Islington, Lambeth, Southwark and Hackney).
In London, Labour is projected to retain only 46 of its 59 seats, with Greens second in 10.
Luke Tryl of More in Common said Reform remains “well over 200 seats clear of their closest challenger and the only party that could viably form a government”, despite a slight plateau since January (down 57 seats). Labour gains 16 seats on the earlier poll but still faces a historic collapse from 411 in 2024.
Nigel Farage reacting on X, sharing the seat projection chart and commented: “New polling in @TheTimes this weekend. Vote Reform. Get Sir Keir Out.”
The Green surge marks the biggest change, threatening Labour in its London strongholds and among younger voters. Possible leadership contenders such as Mr Streeting and Angela Rayner are among those projected to fall, leaving few obvious successors to Sir Keir.
The poll punctures Labour hopes that Sir Keir’s handling of the Middle East crisis would stabilise its position. Recriminations would likely follow any such defeat, with internal debates over strategy in London and relations with the EU.
With Reform on 324 seats, it is the clear frontrunner but short of the 326 needed for outright control.
The survey leaves Sir Keir’s government under siege from both Reform nationally and the Greens on the left, especially in the capital.
2024 general election majorities for high-profile UK political figures:
- Rachel Reeves (Leeds West and Pudsey): 12,392
- Yvette Cooper (Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley): 6,630
- Ed Miliband (Doncaster North): 9,126 John Healey (Rawmarsh and Conisbrough): 6,908
- Darren Jones (Bristol North West): 15,669
- Peter Kyle (Hove and Portslade): 19,881
- Hilary Benn (Leeds South): 11,279
- Wes Streeting (Ilford North): 528 Angela Rayner (Ashton-under-Lyne): 6,791
- David Lammy (Tottenham): 15,434
- Sir Keir Starmer (Holborn and St Pancras): 11,572
- Kemi Badenoch (North West Essex): 2,610
- Priti Patel (Witham): 5,145