Britain could face food shortages this summer as impact of Iran war hits supplies

Shoppers face shortages of some supermarket items this summer if the war in Iran continues, a secret government analysis has found. Officials have drawn up contingency plans for a “reasonable worse-case scenario” amid fears that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could lead to shortages of carbon dioxide, which is vital to the food industry.

Chicken and pork are among the items which could be in short supply, it has ben suggested. While there are not expected to be critical food supply shortages, officials expect there could be a lack of product variety in shops.

The Times reported that senior officials, including from No 10, the Treasury and Ministry of Defence, have secretly rehearsed scenarios looking at the potential impact on British industry in an event codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”. The scenario prepped for the session was set in June 2026 and assumed that the strait had not reopened and a permanent peace deal had not been reached.

Farming and hospitality could likely be impacted the earliest and hardest because CO₂ is used to help increase the shelf life of food. Breweries would also be hit because the gas is used to make drinks fizzy. Government insiders stressed that the reasonable worst-case scenario was not a prediction, but a part of normal Whitehall planning.

A government spokesman said: “We took decisive action last month to shore up the UK’s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.

“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”