The triple lock is under threat again, as the Chancellor loses her grip on the nation’s finances
Chancellor Rachel Reeves needs money from somewhere and she won’t touch welfare (Image: Getty)
Rachel Reeves had a flicker of good news this morning. The economy grew more than expected in February, with GDP rising 0.5%. That’s up from zero in January. That was the last month before the Iran war kicked off, which will shatter any chance of a further recovery. The underlying numbers are horrible, and all pointing one way. Reeves is taxing and borrowing like crazy, yet still can’t make her sums add up. This isn’t down to Donald Trump, whatever she might claim. This is on her.
Reeves insists the UK is “in a stronger position because of the choices this Government took to build economic stability”. That simply doesn’t tally with reality. What does “stability” mean in her world? Ever-higher taxes, for a start. She’s already raised the burden by almost £70billion, and it’s heading higher still. The IMF expects Britain’s tax take to climb from 37.6% of GDP in 2024 to a whoppinog 42.1% by 2031. That will cost the average household an extra £4,500 a year. So much for her pledge to protect working people.
Yet even after her relentless barrage of tax hikes, Reeves still can’t balance the books. Borrowing is set to hit £130billion. All of that will be added to the national debt, to be paid by future generations. She calls it stability. I call it going bust.
In Reeves’s world, stability includes the highest inflation in the West, the highest electricity prices, the highest borrowing costs, all combined with rocketing unemployment. All before the Middle East exploded. She’s peddling fantasy economics. Reality is about to bite. The Treasury has to make a major saving if we’re to spend more on defence, as we must. So once again, attention is turning to the state pension triple lock.
Since its introduction in 2011, the triple lock has lifted millions of pensioners by uprating the state pension by earnings, inflation or 2.5%, whichever is highest. Even so, the UK state pension remains among the lowest in Europe, reliant on top-ups.
But as the population ages, critics claim it’s no longer affordable. Former Labour deputy leader Harriet Harman is the latest to join in the assault. She’s suggested means-testing it to help fund defence. Even Nigel Farage recently said it should be “up for discussion”, although he’s since committed to keeping it. Keir Starmer has pledged to keep it for this Parliament. For once, he hasn’t done a U-turn. There’s still time.
Pensioners will argue there are easier targets. The welfare bill for working-age sickness benefits is surging. Since Labour’s 2024 election win, another 1.6million have gone onto universal credit. Around 1,000 new claimants sign on for disability benefits every week.
By 2030, health and disability spending is forecast to hit £120billion. Reeves’s half-hearted attempt to curb this collapsed into one of Starmer’s trademark U-turns. Labour MPs won’t wear it. Pensioners, most of whom know better than to vote Labour, may prove the softer target.
As Reeves tanks the economy and Trump’s war delivers the final blow, the triple lock will come under increased attack. Pensioners can fight back. The next general election is going to be tight, as the old two-party system collapses. And pensioners are more likely to vote than anybody else. Politicians know that, too.