Kemi Badenoch‘s Tories are just one point behind Labour in a bombshell new poll. The latest YouGov survey puts Andy Burnham‘s party in the lead with 24%, down three points from the week before.

But the Conservatives are up three points to 23% in an apparent bounce after the party’s conference. Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is third with 21%, down one point from the previous week. Meanwhile, the Lib Dems are up one point on 12%, and the Greens are unchanged on 11% after Zack Polanski failed to win a crunch by-election in Sir Keir Starmer‘s former seat.

Anthomy Wells, YouGov’s global head of politics, elections and public data, said: “The changes are within the margin of error, so it’s difficult to distinguish signal from noise, but I suspect there is some degree of “conference bounce” there, with the Tories getting a boost from their coverage, and Labour declining again as the temporary impact of their own conference fades.

“It may well be a temporary Tory boost, but for the record it means this is the first time that we have had Reform back in third place since 2024 (it’s technically the first time since July 2024 – but we didn’t poll between the general election and January 2025 while we were reviewing methods, so we don’t know exactly when Reform overtook the Tories).”

Mrs Badenoch used the Conservative conference to announce that she would scrap inheritance tax on family homes if her party wins power.

She also again ruled out a pact with Reform at the next general election in her strongest comments to date.

The Tory leader said: “To those who say ‘unite the right’, we are not uniting with that.”

YouGov polled 2,393 people between October 11 and 12.

Andy Burnham Dealt Huge Blow in Nightmare Poll for PM as Conservatives Close In on Labour

Prime Minister Andy Burnham has been handed a fresh political challenge after a new opinion poll placed Labour just one percentage point ahead of the Conservatives, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK slipping into third place. The results have intensified the debate over Britain’s changing political landscape and raised questions about whether Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives are beginning to regain support.

The YouGov survey, conducted on October 11 and 12, 2026, put Labour on 24 per cent, the Conservatives on 23 per cent and Reform UK on 21 per cent. The Liberal Democrats were on 12 per cent, while the Greens stood at 11 per cent. The poll surveyed 2,393 people. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search0”]}/>

For Burnham, the figures represent a reminder that political momentum can shift quickly. Although Labour remains narrowly ahead in this particular survey, its advantage over the Conservatives is small enough to underline the uncertainty surrounding the parties’ relative strength.

However, the figures should not be interpreted as proof that Labour is heading for defeat. Opinion polls provide a snapshot of voting intentions at a particular time, not a prediction of the result of a future general election.

Conservatives move into second place

The headline development is the Conservatives’ return to second place in the YouGov survey, ahead of Reform UK. Badenoch described the improvement as the beginning of a longer recovery, arguing that voters were reassessing her party after its disastrous performance at the 2024 general election.

The Conservatives rose three percentage points compared with the previous week’s YouGov poll, while Labour fell by three points. Reform’s share stood at 21 per cent, placing it two points behind the Conservatives. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search0”]}/>

Badenoch has sought to present the Conservatives as a credible alternative to Labour, acknowledging previous mistakes while arguing that the party has changed under her leadership. Her message is directed at voters who are dissatisfied with the government but remain uncertain about whether Reform offers a workable alternative.

The results could provide the Conservatives with an opportunity to argue that the contest for opposition leadership is becoming more competitive. For months, Reform has attracted considerable attention through its polling performance and Nigel Farage’s prominence in debates over immigration, taxation and public services.

Nevertheless, one poll cannot establish that the Conservatives have secured a lasting recovery. A movement of a few percentage points can reflect several factors, including the timing of party conferences, media coverage and changes in the composition of survey samples.

A warning sign for Andy Burnham?

The poll presents a challenge for Burnham because Labour’s lead is narrow, leaving little room for complacency. A government that enjoyed strong polling momentum after taking office may find it difficult to maintain public support as voters begin judging its policies against their everyday experiences.

Household finances are likely to remain an important factor. The cost of food, housing, energy and transport continues to shape political debate, while voters are also concerned about the performance of public services and the government’s ability to deliver its promises.

Burnham has made economic security and improvements to public services central themes of his political programme. Yet announcing policies and demonstrating results are different tasks. Voters may be willing to give a new administration time, but their assessments can change if they feel that living standards are not improving or that major problems remain unresolved.

The latest poll does not establish that these issues caused Labour’s decline. It measures voting intention rather than providing a definitive explanation for why individual respondents support particular parties. Still, the result underlines the importance of maintaining public confidence.

For Labour, the challenge is to show that its priorities translate into tangible improvements while explaining how its policies will be funded and implemented.

The conference bounce may not last

The YouGov findings followed the party conference season, during which political parties attempt to influence public opinion through speeches, policy announcements and media appearances.

Anthony Wells, YouGov’s global head of politics, elections and public data, said the latest changes were within the margin of error. He suggested that the Conservatives might have received a temporary boost from their conference coverage, while Labour’s own conference effect was fading. He also noted that the poll marked the first time Reform had fallen to third place in YouGov’s rankings since 2024. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search0”]}/>

This is an important qualification. A party’s polling figures can rise after a prominent event without that increase necessarily translating into lasting support. The same applies when a rival experiences a decline.

To determine whether the Conservatives’ improvement represents a sustained trend, analysts will need to examine subsequent surveys and compare results from different polling organisations.

Other polls published around the same period have offered a more favourable picture for Labour. An Opinium survey conducted between September 30 and October 2 put Labour on 30 per cent, Reform on 25 per cent and the Conservatives on 17 per cent. That survey therefore showed Labour with a five-point lead over Reform and a considerably larger gap over the Conservatives. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search3”]}/>

The contrast demonstrates why individual polls should not be treated as definitive evidence of a national political shift. Different polling organisations use different methods, and surveys conducted on different dates can capture different movements in public opinion.

Reform UK faces a difficult period

Reform UK’s third-place position in the YouGov poll is another notable development. Farage’s party has built support by campaigning on immigration, national sovereignty, taxation and dissatisfaction with the established political parties.

But the party has also faced scrutiny over its finances and internal controversies. The October 13 report linked its recent polling difficulties to disputes surrounding its funding and political direction. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search0″,”turn522957search4”]}/>

The party’s supporters may argue that a single disappointing survey does not change its wider appeal. Its opponents, meanwhile, may interpret the result as evidence that some voters are reconsidering their options.

Neither conclusion can be established from one poll alone. Reform’s standing will depend on whether it can sustain its support, respond to criticism and convince voters that its proposals are practical as well as attractive.

The Conservatives’ position also complicates the political picture. If Badenoch’s party can retain support among voters who want to challenge Labour, Reform may face greater competition for the same electorate.

That creates a contest involving three parties with different political identities and competing claims to represent dissatisfied voters.

A wider change in the opposition landscape

Separate research from Ipsos, based on interviews conducted between October 9 and 13, found that 35 per cent of respondents regarded the Conservatives as Labour’s main opposition, compared with 32 per cent who named Reform UK. Ipsos said this was the first time during the current Parliament that more people identified the Conservatives than Reform as the main opposition. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search5”]}/>

This question is different from voting intention. It asks which party people see as the main opposition rather than which party they would vote for in an election. The distinction is important because a party can gain recognition as the principal opposition without necessarily receiving the largest share of votes.

Ipsos also reported that the public had become more likely to think Labour would win the next general election than in the previous month. Its findings therefore offered a more nuanced picture than the claim that Burnham had suffered an unambiguous political reversal. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search5”]}/>

Taken together, the surveys suggest that the battle to define Britain’s political alternatives remains unsettled. The Conservatives are seeking to rebuild their position, Reform is attempting to maintain its challenge to the established parties, and Labour is trying to consolidate support under Burnham.

What does this mean for the next election?

The next general election is not scheduled to take place immediately, and a poll showing a narrow lead does not mean that an election is imminent. Burnham has previously rejected suggestions that he intends to call an early election, according to reporting by The Independent and City A.M. <Cite refs={[“turn522957search1″,”turn522957search7”]}/>

There are many factors between a voting-intention survey and an election result. Campaigns can change the political agenda, economic conditions may improve or deteriorate, and parties can gain or lose support through their policy decisions and public performances.

The electoral system also matters. Under Britain’s first-past-the-post system, the distribution of votes across individual constituencies can affect how national support translates into parliamentary seats. A small national lead does not automatically determine which party would secure a parliamentary majority.

For that reason, the latest YouGov figures cannot establish how many seats Labour, the Conservatives or Reform would win in a future election. They show where the parties stood among respondents at the time the survey was conducted.

What they do demonstrate is that the Conservatives remain competitive in the polling picture and that Labour’s advantage in this particular survey is narrow.

Burnham faces the challenge of delivering results

For Burnham, the central task is to turn the authority of government into sustained public confidence. That means explaining his priorities clearly, delivering on commitments and responding to concerns about household finances and public services.

The Conservatives will attempt to use the latest numbers to reinforce their argument that they are recovering from the setbacks of the previous election. Reform will seek to show that its longer-term challenge remains relevant despite the latest result.

Labour, meanwhile, will point to other surveys that have placed it further ahead and argue that the wider polling picture should be assessed over time rather than through a single result.

Ultimately, the October 11–12 YouGov poll is a warning against assuming that the political landscape has settled. Labour leads on 24 per cent in this survey, but the Conservatives are close behind on 23 per cent and Reform stands on 21 per cent.

That is a competitive set of figures, not a verdict on the next election. Whether the Conservatives can sustain their improvement, whether Reform can recover its position and whether Labour can strengthen its support will become clearer only as further polling emerges.

For now, the result gives Badenoch a reason to claim progress, gives Farage’s party fresh questions to answer and reminds Burnham that political momentum is never guaranteed.