Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes Hit in New Poll
Andy Burnham has suffered a fresh setback as prime minister after new polling showed a five-point fall in his popularity, raising questions about whether the early “Burnham bounce” is beginning to fade.
The Labour leader entered Downing Street only weeks ago with an extraordinary surge in public support. His arrival followed Keir Starmer’s resignation and immediately transformed Labour’s political fortunes, with the party climbing back into contention against Reform UK.
But the latest figures suggest the honeymoon may already be facing its first serious test.
According to a new Survation poll reported this week, Burnham’s net approval rating has fallen by five points to +11. Labour nevertheless remains ahead of Reform in the latest Opinium voting-intention figures, with Labour on 27%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 18%.
The numbers do not represent a political disaster for Burnham.
Far from it.
But they provide an early warning that the enormous enthusiasm surrounding his arrival in Downing Street cannot be taken for granted.
The end of the honeymoon?
Burnham’s first weeks as prime minister have been marked by an unusually intense burst of political activity.
He has sought to distinguish himself sharply from Starmer, presenting a more energetic and visibly interventionist style of government.
His programme has included measures designed to tackle everyday pressures on households, including action on energy bills and bus fares, alongside promises on public services and devolution.
That approach initially produced encouraging results.
Labour’s support rebounded dramatically after Burnham replaced Starmer. A series of polls showed the party either catching or overtaking Reform, reversing months in which Nigel Farage’s party had appeared to dominate the political conversation.
The latest fall in Burnham’s personal rating therefore matters because his political strategy has relied heavily on his personal appeal.
He is not simply presenting a new Labour programme.
He is presenting himself as a different kind of prime minister.
If voters begin to lose enthusiasm for Burnham himself, Labour could find it harder to maintain the momentum generated by the leadership change.
Still the most popular new PM in years
There is, however, another side to the story.
Burnham remains considerably more popular than most contemporary British political leaders.
YouGov’s latest favourability survey, published on August 18, found that Burnham’s net favourability remains the highest recorded for any British prime minister in more than six years.
That means the five-point fall should not be interpreted as a collapse.
Instead, it appears to be a moderation from exceptionally strong early numbers.
His initial favourability rating had already been unusually impressive for a new prime minister. YouGov’s first assessment of his premiership found the public divided 38% to 35% between favourable and unfavourable views, making him the most popular new prime minister since Theresa May.
That is a substantial political asset.
But it also creates a difficult expectation.
The higher a leader climbs during a honeymoon period, the harder it becomes to maintain that level once voters begin judging actual government performance.
Labour remains ahead
The most encouraging news for Burnham is that the decline in his personal popularity has not yet translated into a collapse in Labour’s voting intentions.
The latest Opinium figures put Labour on 27%, two points ahead of Reform UK.
The Conservatives remain further behind on 18%.
That represents a remarkable reversal from earlier this year.
Under Starmer, Labour had suffered a dramatic loss of support while Reform surged.
Burnham’s arrival changed the trajectory almost immediately.
An Ipsos survey conducted between July 30 and August 4 also showed Labour ahead of Reform, 29% to 26%, while the Conservatives stood at 17%. Ipsos found that Burnham was preferred as prime minister to both Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch.
The political picture is therefore far more positive for Labour than it was just months ago.
But the narrowing gap between Burnham’s approval and the party’s electoral position will be closely watched.
Reform is still dangerous
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK may have slipped behind Labour in several polls, but it remains a formidable opponent.
Its support remains around the mid-20s, giving it a large national base.
More importantly, Reform continues to threaten Labour in constituencies where traditional political loyalties have weakened.
The party’s appeal is concentrated around issues such as immigration, welfare, crime and dissatisfaction with the established political system.
Burnham’s strategy has been partly designed to neutralise that threat.
By focusing on practical problems affecting people’s everyday lives, Labour hopes to persuade voters who previously switched to Reform that the government can actually deliver change.
That strategy appears to be working to some extent.
But the latest approval figures suggest that Burnham will need to do more than simply make a strong first impression.
The difficult phase begins
The honeymoon period is relatively easy compared with governing.
Burnham inherited a government facing enormous structural problems.
The economy remains under pressure. Public services require major investment. Immigration remains politically contentious. The prison system is struggling with capacity, while the government faces difficult decisions over taxation, welfare and defence.
Some of those issues have already begun testing the new prime minister.
His government’s proposed prisoner-release arrangements have generated fierce public and political debate. Burnham has had to intervene after concerns about the possible release of serious offenders, while probation officers have voted overwhelmingly in favour of potential strike action over workloads.
Those are precisely the sorts of issues that can turn a political honeymoon into a genuine test of leadership.
It is one thing to announce popular measures such as cheaper transport.
It is another to make unpopular decisions when there are no easy alternatives.
The “everyday fixes” strategy
One of Burnham’s most distinctive political ideas has been his focus on what he calls “everyday fixes”.
The approach is designed to demonstrate that government is paying attention to small frustrations that affect people’s daily lives.
Bus fares, energy bills, high-street problems and nuisance businesses may seem minor compared with major constitutional or economic reforms.
But Burnham’s political calculation is that voters judge governments partly through their everyday experiences.
If the government can make life noticeably easier, Labour could rebuild trust one practical measure at a time.
Political analysts have nevertheless warned that such policies risk appearing gimmicky if they are not followed by deeper reforms.
That could become Burnham’s central challenge.
He needs the small victories to create momentum while demonstrating that his government also has a credible answer to Britain’s biggest problems.
The pressure of expectations
Perhaps the greatest danger facing Burnham is that his own success has created unrealistic expectations.
He entered Downing Street after Starmer’s leadership had become deeply unpopular.
The contrast was immediate.
Burnham was seen as more charismatic, more instinctive and more politically connected to voters.
The public mood changed rapidly.
Labour’s poll numbers improved.
Reform’s momentum weakened.
The new prime minister appeared to enjoy a remarkable personal advantage.
But political enthusiasm can be fragile.
The latest five-point decline provides a reminder that voters can change their minds quickly.
If Burnham’s government struggles over the autumn, particularly around the budget, public services and immigration, the political bounce could disappear faster than it arrived.
A three-way battle
The Conservative position makes the situation even more unpredictable.
With Labour on 27%, Reform on 25% and the Conservatives on 18%, Britain remains far from a conventional two-party contest.
The Conservatives are attempting to recover under Kemi Badenoch, while Reform continues to compete aggressively for right-wing voters.
That fragmentation benefits Burnham in one important respect.
Even if Labour loses some support, the opposition remains divided.
But it also creates a long-term danger.
If Reform can consolidate its position while the Conservatives recover, Labour could face two substantial challengers at the next general election.
Burnham therefore cannot afford to become complacent simply because Labour has regained first place.
The verdict is still out
The latest poll should be seen as a warning rather than a crisis.
Burnham remains one of the most popular figures in British politics and, according to recent polling, still enjoys a significant advantage over his main rivals.
Labour remains ahead of Reform.
The Conservatives are still struggling to break through.
And the new prime minister retains considerable political goodwill.
But the easy part may now be over.
Burnham has benefited enormously from the contrast with Starmer. Voters were ready for a change, and he provided one.
The next stage will be much harder.
He must prove that his energetic style can translate into effective government, that his promises can survive contact with the Treasury and that his political instincts remain reliable when confronted with genuinely unpopular choices.
The five-point fall in his popularity is therefore significant precisely because it comes so early.
It suggests the “Burnham bounce” may be settling into something more normal.
For Labour, that is not necessarily bad news.
A prime minister does not need to remain permanently at honeymoon-level popularity to win elections.
He needs to maintain enough public trust to survive difficult periods and convince voters that his government is moving the country in the right direction.
Burnham still has that advantage.
But with Reform only two points behind Labour in the latest voting-intention figures, the margin for error is narrowing.
The new prime minister has won the first battle.
Now comes the much harder task of proving that the political excitement surrounding his arrival in Downing Street can become lasting support.
And if his popularity continues to fall, the question that once seemed almost unthinkable could soon return to Westminster:
Was the Burnham bounce ever more than a honeymoon?