Andy Burnham Handed Blueprint to Reverse Brexit With UK Joining ‘European Confederation’
Andy Burnham has been handed a dramatic blueprint for reshaping Britain’s relationship with Europe, with a new proposal suggesting that the UK could join a wider “European Confederation” without immediately rejoining the European Union.
The idea offers Burnham a potential middle ground between Brexit and full EU membership: Britain would regain important economic and political links with Europe while remaining outside the EU’s formal structures.
The proposal comes at a politically sensitive moment for the prime minister. Burnham has historically expressed support for the idea that Britain could eventually rejoin the EU, but he has also insisted that his immediate priority is fixing problems at home rather than reopening the divisive Brexit argument. In May, he explicitly said he was not proposing that Britain return to the EU.
Now, however, pressure is growing for his government to think more ambitiously about Britain’s future relationship with Europe.
The “European Confederation” idea
The proposal was put forward by former Conservative MP Nick Boles in an essay entitled Beyond Brexit: A New Deal for Britain, Ukraine and Europe.
Boles argues for creating a “European Confederation” that would act as an outer ring around the European Union.
The concept would allow countries that are unwilling or unable to join the EU fully to participate in selected elements of European integration.
For Britain, that could mean access to the European single market for goods while remaining outside the EU itself.
It would not, under the proposal, restore all the freedoms Britain enjoyed before Brexit.
There would be no automatic free movement rights and no access to agricultural subsidies. Instead, membership would be based on a new bargain between Britain and continental Europe.
That distinction could be crucial politically.
Rather than presenting the proposal as simply “Brexit reversed”, supporters could argue that it represents a new settlement designed for the post-Brexit world.
A defence bargain with Europe
Perhaps the most striking element of the plan is that Britain would be expected to contribute something substantial in return.
Boles proposes that the UK commit to spending 3.5% of GDP on defence and share the benefits of its military capabilities with European partners.
The proposal therefore goes beyond trade.
It is designed as a strategic bargain in which Britain would provide military strength while regaining closer economic access to the continent.
Ukraine would also be invited into the proposed confederation, with its own defence capabilities forming part of the wider European security arrangement.
The idea reflects the radically changed security environment facing Europe.
Russia’s war in Ukraine, uncertainty over American involvement in European defence and the broader challenge posed by China have all encouraged European governments to reconsider how the continent should organise itself.
Britain, despite Brexit, remains one of Europe’s major military powers.
A confederation could therefore provide a framework in which the UK contributes strategically without immediately becoming an EU member.
Why the proposal matters for Burnham
The proposal arrives at a particularly important moment for Burnham.
Since becoming prime minister, he has sought to improve Britain’s relationship with the EU while maintaining the political red lines established by Labour.
His government is already attempting to accelerate negotiations over trade, youth mobility, energy and other areas of cooperation. Europe minister Hamish Falconer has said that Labour wants a “deeper relationship” with the EU, although the government continues to reject rejoining the single market or customs union.
The EU has also signalled that it wants closer relations.
European Council President António Costa spoke with Burnham shortly after he became prime minister, with both sides agreeing to strengthen EU-UK relations ahead of a planned EU-UK summit later in the year.
That means the political conditions for a new conversation already exist.
The question is how far Burnham is prepared to go.
The Brexit dilemma
The fundamental problem for Burnham is that Brexit remains politically toxic.
For many voters, any suggestion of returning to European institutions risks reviving the arguments that dominated British politics for years.
For others, Brexit represents a decision whose economic and political costs are increasingly difficult to ignore.
Burnham has tried to navigate between these positions.
Before becoming prime minister, he argued that Brexit had been damaging but warned that Britain could become trapped in a “permanent rut” if politicians continually returned to the same argument. He said his priority was to “fix our own country” rather than attempt to reverse the referendum result.
Yet his long-term position has been more complicated.
Burnham has previously suggested that he would like Britain to rejoin the EU at some point during his lifetime, a position that has attracted significant attention since he became Labour leader and prime minister.
That leaves open the possibility of a gradual approach.
Instead of campaigning immediately for full EU membership, Burnham could pursue closer economic, social and security relationships that make Brexit less consequential over time.
A European Confederation could theoretically fit that strategy.
Not quite rejoining the EU
The biggest political advantage of the proposal is that it would not require Britain to announce that Brexit had been a mistake.
The UK would remain outside the European Union.
It would not automatically regain free movement.
It would not necessarily return to the EU budget system or accept every aspect of the bloc’s political integration.
Instead, Britain would join a new layer of cooperation.
That could make the idea more politically attractive to voters who want closer European relations but remain opposed to full EU membership.
It could also offer Burnham a way to address some of the practical consequences of Brexit without declaring that the 2016 referendum should simply be overturned.
Young people and mobility
Youth mobility is likely to become one of the most important areas of closer UK-EU relations.
Burnham’s government is already negotiating with Brussels over a youth mobility scheme.
But the talks have encountered disagreements over the scale of the programme. EU member states are pushing for a considerably larger scheme than the UK government has proposed, while Brussels is also seeking favourable tuition-fee arrangements for EU students studying in Britain.
A confederation could eventually provide a broader framework for such arrangements.
For young Britons, Brexit ended automatic rights to live, work and study across the European Union.
That loss has become particularly controversial among younger generations who were too young to vote in the 2016 referendum.
Recent campaigning has therefore increasingly focused on restoring some of those opportunities, even if full EU membership remains politically distant.
The economic argument
Trade could provide another major incentive.
The UK’s departure from the EU single market created additional barriers for British companies selling goods to Europe.
A confederation that restored single-market access for goods could potentially reduce some of those barriers.
But there would be a price.
Britain would have to accept the relevant single-market rules, limiting its ability to diverge from European regulations.
That could reopen an old Brexit argument: how much regulatory freedom is worth the economic friction created by being outside the EU system?
Supporters would argue that the ability to sell more easily into Britain’s largest nearby market is worth accepting greater alignment.
Opponents would say that Brexit was intended to give Britain the freedom to set its own rules.
That argument is unlikely to disappear.
Europe is changing too
There is another reason why the confederation proposal is attracting attention.
The European Union itself has changed significantly since Britain voted to leave.
The bloc has become more focused on defence, energy security, industrial strategy and geopolitical competition.
The European institutions that Britain left in 2020 are therefore not exactly the same institutions that existed during the referendum campaign.
That makes a simple return to the old pre-Brexit relationship less realistic.
A new European structure could potentially acknowledge that reality.
Rather than asking Britain to return to yesterday’s EU, the confederation proposal attempts to imagine what European cooperation could look like in the 2030s.
Burnham’s difficult choice
For Burnham, the challenge is political as much as economic.
Reform UK would almost certainly portray deeper European integration as an attempt to overturn Brexit by stealth.
The Conservatives would face pressure to decide whether to oppose the idea outright or support closer economic ties while defending Britain’s formal independence.
Within Labour, meanwhile, there would be competing pressures.
Pro-European MPs and younger voters could demand much greater ambition.
Other Labour supporters could warn that reopening Brexit would distract from domestic priorities and give Reform an easy political weapon.
Burnham therefore has little incentive to make an immediate pledge to join any new European organisation.
But he does have an incentive to explore what closer cooperation could deliver.
A new route beyond Brexit?
The “European Confederation” proposal is not government policy, and there is no indication that Burnham has formally adopted Boles’s plan.
But it arrives at a moment when the UK and EU are already searching for ways to rebuild their relationship.
That makes the idea politically significant.
Britain does not necessarily have to choose between the extremes of complete separation and immediate EU membership.
There may be intermediate possibilities.
Closer trade.
More opportunities for young people.
Greater defence cooperation.
Regulatory alignment in selected areas.
And potentially a new European institution that gives Britain a formal place in a wider continental partnership.
For Burnham, that could offer an escape from the endless argument over whether Brexit should simply be reversed.
Instead, he could argue that Britain is building something new.
The irony is that such a strategy could eventually bring Britain much closer to Europe than the architects of Brexit ever intended.
For now, Burnham insists that his focus is domestic reform and that Britain will not simply reopen the Brexit referendum debate.
But the pressure for a new European settlement is growing.
And if the European Confederation idea gains traction, the prime minister may eventually face a choice between defending the limits of Brexit and embracing a new relationship that quietly removes many of its practical consequences.
Britain may not be preparing to rejoin the European Union.
But the road back towards Europe could be taking a very different route.