One concern is that we urgently need extra cash to pump into defence. Even Keir Starmer. the former Labour Prime Minister, has warned that the UK could be at war with Russia within four years, while others say we are involved in a “hybrid” war with the Kremlin, involving sabotage and small provocations rather than full-blown fighting, already.

Conservatives argue that welfare could be cut to give our armed forces the resources they need. But Mr Burnham made it clear he disagrees, telling Parliament this week: “We do everything to support our national security, but it cannot come at the expense of social security”.

She highlighted “taxpayers paying millions more on the costs of failure, with spending on working age sickness and disability benefits up £20 billion since the pandemic, set to rise by a further £18 billion by the end of this Parliament to £70 billion a year.”

“That is not sustainable long-term.”

What happened next is that furious Labour MPs, who opposed cuts to Personal Independence Payments, threatened to defeat the Government in a House of Commons vote. Rather than suffering this humiliation, the Government delayed the scheme – and appointed Sir Stephen to launch a review.

He’s now published what he calls emerging recommendations. It’s not quite his final report, but it’s an early draft of it. And his recommendations are not about cutting benefits at all. If anything, he’s calling for the opposite.

We all agree that people with disabilities should get the help they need but the growing benefits bill – as Liz Kendall explained – is largely driven by young people stuck in their bedrooms who feel unable to work because of anxiety or similar mental health conditions.

And the horrible truth is that the country cannot afford it. The UK government is in so much debt that the annual interest bill is higher than the total budgets for Defence, the Home Office (including police) and the criminal justice system, including courts, all added together.

That’s not the amount we’ve borrowed. That’s just the interest we pay on it.

We must cut spending, and getting the welfare bill down must be part of that. Otherwise we’ll reach a point where nobody is willing to lend us money any more.

Andy Burnham, Welfare Reform and the UK’s Fiscal Challenge

Andy Burnham’s approach to welfare reform has become one of the most contentious issues facing his government. Critics argue that he has abandoned meaningful attempts to reduce benefit spending and warn that continued increases in welfare expenditure could place further pressure on Britain’s already difficult public finances. Supporters of Burnham’s approach argue that reducing welfare spending through blunt cuts would push vulnerable people into greater poverty and that the government should instead address the underlying causes of economic inactivity, including poor health, inadequate housing and a lack of employment opportunities.

The controversy intensified after recommendations from Work and Pensions Minister Sir Stephen Timms on Personal Independence Payment, or PIP. The recommendations included making application forms easier to complete, reducing the frequency of reviews for people with long-term conditions and changing the tone used by officials when communicating with claimants. Critics have argued that these proposals do not provide a sufficiently clear strategy for reducing the overall welfare bill. AAOL.com

However, describing this as Burnham simply “giving up” on welfare reform would oversimplify his stated position. In July 2026, shortly after becoming prime minister, Burnham said that Britain needed to become “really serious” about reducing welfare spending. At the same time, he rejected the idea of crude reductions in benefit levels and argued that the system should instead focus more strongly on helping people into employment and addressing the problems that leave people dependent on social security. JJoseph Rowntree Foundation+1

This distinction is central to understanding the debate. There are two different questions: whether the welfare bill should be reduced, and how it should be reduced. Burnham has indicated that he supports the first objective but prefers a different method from straightforward reductions in benefit payments. His approach would involve changing the support available to claimants, strengthening conditions where appropriate and tackling the underlying causes of economic inactivity.

The scale of Britain’s welfare challenge is nevertheless substantial. Former Labour Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall warned in 2025 that spending on working-age sickness and disability benefits had risen significantly since the pandemic. She also pointed to projections showing a substantial increase in the number of people receiving PIP. Her argument was that the existing trajectory could not continue indefinitely. AAOL.com

The increase in sickness and disability-related benefit claims has several possible explanations. Britain has experienced significant changes in the labour market, particularly following the Covid-19 pandemic. Long-term illness, mental-health problems and other health conditions have affected people’s ability to work. An ageing population also creates additional pressures on social security and public services. Consequently, the increase cannot simply be attributed to changes in individual behaviour.

This is why Burnham’s approach focuses partly on prevention and employment support. He has argued that young people who are outside employment, education or training should receive better opportunities and more support. Rather than simply reducing their benefits, the government could attempt to improve access to education, skills training, mental-health services and employment. The objective would be to reduce welfare dependency by increasing people’s ability to participate in the labour market.

The Joseph Rowntree Foundation has similarly argued that governments can reduce pressure on social-security spending by tackling the underlying causes of need rather than relying on blunt benefit cuts. Its research suggests that there is limited public support for indiscriminate reductions that could increase poverty. JJoseph Rowntree Foundation

Nevertheless, there are legitimate concerns about the financial sustainability of this approach. Programmes designed to help people into work require upfront spending, while the savings from increased employment may take years to materialise. If the government provides more support without achieving a substantial reduction in long-term benefit dependency, total expenditure could continue to rise.

This creates a difficult policy calculation. Cutting benefits can produce immediate savings but may increase poverty and create additional pressure on charities, local authorities and other public services. Investing more in employment support may reduce future welfare costs but requires money to be spent before savings appear. Policymakers therefore have to consider both short-term budgets and long-term outcomes.

The issue becomes even more important because the government has other expensive priorities. Burnham has promised significant reform of adult social care and has argued that the NHS cannot be restored to better waiting-time standards without addressing the social-care system. The government’s fiscal outlook also identifies defence spending and social care as major areas of future expenditure. TThe Guardian+1

Defence provides a particularly important example of the trade-offs involved. Britain faces pressure to increase military spending, while the government has simultaneously committed itself to protecting public services and social security. Critics of welfare spending argue that money could instead be redirected towards national defence. Burnham, however, has said that national security cannot simply come at the expense of social security. AAOL.com

This disagreement illustrates the wider political argument about the size and role of the state. One side emphasises fiscal discipline and argues that government must reduce expenditure wherever possible. Another places greater emphasis on social protection and argues that spending cuts can create deeper economic and social problems.

There is also an important distinction between welfare spending and waste. A large welfare budget does not automatically mean that the entire system is inefficient. Many people receiving benefits have serious disabilities, long-term illnesses or other circumstances that prevent them from working. The policy challenge is therefore to identify where spending can be reduced without withdrawing legitimate support from people who need it.

PIP is particularly complicated because it is designed to help people with additional costs associated with disability. Eligibility is not simply based on whether someone has a job. A person can be employed and still qualify for PIP if they meet the relevant criteria. This means that reducing the number of claims cannot necessarily be achieved simply by pushing people into employment.

The government’s proposed changes to the welfare system therefore need to distinguish between people who could return to work with appropriate support and those whose disabilities or health conditions make employment difficult or impossible. A policy that treats these groups identically could produce unfair outcomes.

Burnham has suggested that benefits could become more conditional in some circumstances. He has argued that people should receive stronger support to take advantage of opportunities available to them, while mental-health support could be integrated into employment programmes. TThe Guardian

Such an approach could potentially reduce long-term dependency if it succeeds in helping people move into stable employment. However, its effectiveness would depend on the quality of the jobs available, the accessibility of healthcare and mental-health services, and the willingness of employers to recruit people with health conditions.

The housing market is another part of Burnham’s strategy. The government has linked welfare reform to housing policy and has argued that building more council homes could address some of the underlying pressures affecting household finances. The logic is that high housing costs can increase dependence on government support, while greater availability of affordable housing could reduce that pressure over time. JJoseph Rowntree Foundation+1

Again, however, housing construction requires substantial investment. Building homes can provide long-term benefits, but it cannot immediately reduce the welfare bill. The government must therefore manage a transition between current spending and future savings.

The accusation that Burnham is “driving the UK to bankruptcy” should also be treated carefully. Britain does face significant fiscal pressures, but bankruptcy is not the same thing as having a high level of government debt. Governments borrow continuously, and the relevant questions concern debt sustainability, borrowing costs, economic growth and the government’s ability to meet its fiscal commitments.

The House of Lords Library’s September 2026 assessment notes that Burnham has committed his government to the fiscal rules inherited from the previous Labour government. The government has also said that it will set out its fiscal plans in the October 2026 Budget and that those plans will meet the existing fiscal rules. HHouse of Lords Library

This does reducing spending, but it is not the only option. Governments can also reform public services, encourage economic growth, change taxation, reduce administrative costs or reprioritise existing not mean that the government’s finances are without risks. Significant commitments in areas such as social care and defence could increase spending substantially. The government therefore faces a difficult task in reconciling those commitments with its promise of fiscal discipline. HHouse of Lords Library

The welfare debate should consequently be considered as part of a much wider fiscal picture. Cutting benefits is one possible way of reducing spending, but it is not the only option. Governments can also reform public services, encourage economic growth, change taxation, reduce administrative costs or reprioritise existing programmes.

The crucial issue is whether the government can reduce long-term welfare dependency without creating greater costs elsewhere. If employment support succeeds, fewer people may require benefits and tax revenues may increase. If it fails, however, the government could end up spending more without achieving the expected reduction in welfare expenditure.

In conclusion, the claim that Andy Burnham has simply abandoned welfare reform is not consistent with his publicly stated position. Burnham has said that Britain must reduce welfare spending, but he has rejected what he describes as crude benefit cuts. Instead, he has emphasised employment support, changes to benefit conditions, better health support and action on housing and education. JJoseph Rowntree Foundation+1

The criticism nevertheless highlights a genuine fiscal challenge. Welfare spending is under pressure from rising sickness and disability claims, while the government faces major demands from the NHS, social care, defence and other public services. The government cannot avoid difficult choices simply by promising better support.

Whether Burnham’s approach ultimately reduces the welfare bill will depend on its implementation and measurable results. If more people are successfully helped into employment and underlying causes of economic inactivity are reduced, the strategy could generate savings over time. If expenditure continues to rise without a corresponding improvement in employment and health outcomes, pressure on the public finances up”, but through evidence: how much welfare spending changes, how many people move into sustainable employment, whether poverty levels change, and whether the government’s overall fiscal plans will remain.

The most useful way to judge the policy is therefore not through the language of “bankruptcy” or accusations that the government has “given up”, but through evidence: how much welfare spending changes, how many people move into sustainable employment, whether poverty levels change, and whether the government’s overall fiscal plans remain sustainable. Those outcomes will provide a clearer assessment of Burnham’s welfare strategy than political rhetoric alone.

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