The PM faces an urgent decision and he cannot put it off any longer. Whatever Andy Burnham decides, half the country will hate him for it. And he knows it.
We’re about to find out if Andy Burnham can make tough decisions. (Image: Getty)
Which is why he’s been putting it off. He knows how divisive this issue is, especially among the left-wing voters he’s trying to win back to Labour. Disappoint them and they’ll feel betrayed. Go the other way and he’ll be accused of putting short-term party politics ahead of the UK economy. It’s a rotten position for a left-leaning Labour PM to be in. But now it’s make-your-mind-up time.
Burnham has to strike a balance between tackling climate change and keeping the lights on, and there are no easy wins. He’s been accused of “dithering and delaying” over whether to approve fresh production at the Rosebank oilfield and Jackdaw gasfield in the North Sea. They have become symbols of the wider battle over Britain’s energy future, and after the summer we’ve had, the heat is on.
Burnham should have settled this weeks ago. Instead, he put it off until after last Thursday’s by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by Keir Starmer’s decision to quit Parliament. It was a big test for Burnham, as Green Party leader Zack Polanski was standing for the seat. Burnham was desperate to stop him, to put the resurgent Greens back in their box, and reconnect Labour with disillusioned voters on the left. He didn’t want to boost Polanski’s campaign by announcing new North Sea drilling.
And it worked. Labour held the seat and Polanski is now on resignation watch. Burnham is free to move on, but he can no longer use the contest as reason to delay.
Former energy secretary Ed Miliband triggered a mighty row by blocking new North Sea drilling licences. He repeatedly argued that the policy wouldn’t cut a penny off household bills, overlooking the wider economic and strategic case for domestic production.
Rosebank and Jackdaw could produce substantial quantities of oil and gas over their lifetimes, although they’re not suddenly going to make Britain self-sufficient. They’ll bring other benefits that Miliband never mentioned. New investment would support jobs, generate tax revenues and revive Aberdeen’s flagging energy industry.
Drilling could also strengthen energy security by reducing reliance on imports, and lift Britain’s balance of payments too. We cannot simply transition to renewables overnight, but need oil and gas for decades. In that case, there’s a powerful argument for producing more of it at home.
North Sea gas has lower production and transport emissions than imported liquefied natural gas, so that’s another argument in favour. But there are arguments against.
Critics say new fields risk locking Britain into fossil-fuel dependence when it should be accelerating the shift to renewables. Approving Rosebank and Jackdaw will enrage environmentalists, who’ll be marching through the streets with banners saying the PM is killing the planet. It could even save Polanski.
But with winter looming, energy costs climbing and the Iran and Ukraine wars threatening supplies, most voters will think it’s madness to leave domestic resources untapped, while handing billions to Norway, the US and Qatar.
Labour allows imports of jet fuel made from Russian crude, boosting Vladimir Putin‘s war chest. Given that, it would be crazy to block our own. It might even cost Labour seats in the next election.
Burnham is in a bind. He can’t please everyone, and he can’t keep delaying. Bad luck. He wanted power, he’s got it. Now he has to make the tough calls that come with it.