Since becoming PM, Andy Burnham has ducked the big, controversial decisions.
Andy Burnham has good reasons to go for broke with a snap election (Image: Getty)
We’ve had small, popular measures, such as cutting VAT on electricity bills, capping bus fares at £2, and vague talk about easing the cost-of-living crisis. Big decisions on defence spending, social care and council house building have been pushed down the road. Many have seen this as a sign of weakness. That Burnham would rather court cheap popularity than tackle the tough decisions facing Britain today. But could it be something else?
There’s growing speculation that our new PM has something else up his sleeve, and is deliberately avoiding anything that could derail it. He’s enjoying his bounce, and would rather build the Burnham brand with voters by pumping out easy-going TikTok videos than start fights he might lose. That’s because he’s saving it up for the big one. A snap general election. Not in the spring, as many have assumed, but in November.
That could see the nation trudging to the polls in just two months’ time. The more I think about it, the more attractive it must look from Burnham’s point of view. But it relies on a few things going right first. So the PM will have to hold fire, before making his move.
First, we have the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, from Sunday September 27 to Wednesday September 30. Burnham will use it to rally the faithful and deliver a set-piece speech designed to convince the nation he’s prime minister material. If that goes well, he moves onto the second stage of his plan.
On October 8, there’s a by-election in Holborn and St Pancras, triggered by former PM Keir Starmer stepping down. Green Party leader Zack Polanski is contesting the seat, but if Labour sees off mad Zack, Burnham will feel emboldened to go for the big one. The shortest an election campaign can legally last is 25 working days. The Daily Telegraph has suggested Thursday November 19 as a possible date.
The Budget is due on October 28, so Burnham will have to decide what to do about that. It might be possible to postpone it until after the election. Otherwise, it won’t contain much more than a few basics and cheap giveaways. And Burnham has another reason to go for broke. In fact, I think it’s the strongest of all.
We’re heading towards a winter of discontent. Global inflation and energy prices are soaring, thanks to the wars in Iran and Ukraine. That will drive gas, electricity and food bills even higher, while four predicted interest rate hikes next year could push up mortgage costs too. All of which will make voters very grumpy, and less likely to vote for the incumbent PM.
An early election before the crisis strikes could be a sound pre-emptive move. Especially with Kemi Badenoch growing in authority by the day, while Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is distracted by rows over donations. If Burnham goes for it and gets his mandate, then we’re in trouble.
Burnham rode his luck to get into Westminster, and will be hoping it holds for a couple more months. But this could be bad luck for the rest of us.
Yesterday, one of Burnham’s former allies warned that he’s leading an old-style socialist tax-and-spend government. Now we could be facing five years of it, if the PM has his way.
If Burnham calls and wins an election, he can ditch Labour’s manifesto pledge not to hike income tax, national insurance and VAT, and really go for it. That’s when the tough decisions will start rolling in. And they’ll be especially tough for taxpayers, who’ll pay the price of a Labour victory. For years.