The stakes couldn’t be higher as the PM considers whether to go to the country.
Andy Burnham has a big decision – but the opposition is split (Image: Getty)
As yet, we don’t know what he’ll do. Burnham is likely to be in two minds himself. Calling an early general election is a massive opportunity, but it’s also a mighty risk. Get it wrong, and his dream of being PM for 10 years could end almost before it’s begun. Yet some in Westminster reckon he may call an election for as soon as November 19, just two months away, and there are compelling reasons to do that.
Britain is walking into a winter energy crisis, as the Iran war drives up the oil price. If Burnham has cleared an election, he has five years to win voters back. A quick win would also give him the mandate he lacks, and allow him to ditch restrictive Labour manifesto pledges not to hike income tax, National Insurance and VAT. At which point, he can unleash a “socialist tax-and-spend blitz” and wreck the UK economy for good.
One big downside is that the nation has had a taste of Labour, making it harder to emulate Sir Keir Starmer‘s 2024 ‘loveless landslide’, which was largely a protest against the hated Tories. Many of his 400 or so Labour MPs may lose their seats, and Burnham will have their careers on his conscience. Burnham may be tempted to ride his luck though, as he did when standing in the Makerfield by-election, which swept him to Number 10.
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When Burnham looks at the rival parties, he must fancy his chances. Kemi Badenoch may wipe the floor with him at Prime Minister’s Questions but the Tories still won’t clean up. Reform is benefiting from the small boats shambles, but Nigel Farage is currently bogged down in the crypto crisis. Green Party leader Zack Polanski’s star has faded, although it will shine brightly if he wins the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 8, and takes a seat in Westminster.
One thing might deter him. A trick that worked before, for the Tories. Former Labour leader Gordon Brown knows all about this, as does Burnham, who was an adviser at the time. After ousting Tony Blair as PM in 2007, Brown was himself preparing to call an early general election.
Then Tory chancellor George Osborne came up with a killer policy: raising the inheritance tax (IHT) threshold from £300,000 to £1million. The Daily Express launched its death tax crusade, and Brown lost his nerve. He was dubbed ‘Bottler Brown’ and next year the financial crisis finished him off. But the IHT pledge was the moment that sealed his fate.
Today, Badenoch has exactly the same trick available to her. In some respects it could be even more attractive. With the £325,000 nil-rate threshold frozen since 2009, IHT is hitting more and more families. From next year, most unused pension pots could become liable to IHT thanks to Rachel Reeves, driving bills still higher.
Promising to axe IHT altogether could win support for the Tories, but I’m not totally convinced. Labour would call it a tax break for the rich. Reform already has. Robert Jenrick dismissed it as a “desperate play” that would primarily benefit the wealthiest.
Which leaves just one more option. We now have two parties of the right. Some kind of Tory-Reform coalition could see off Burnham. He may retaliate by announcing his own pact with the Greens, but I doubt it will be as powerful.
But it might be the only way of preventing Burnham from sweeping all before him. Just one problem. Both Badenoch and Farage have ruled it out. Which gives Burnham another reason to go to the country, and fast. If the right is split, there’s nothing to stop him, and five more years of misery will follow. Or if Burnham has his way, 10 years.
Andy Burnham ‘well capable’ of defeating Nigel Farage with Labour majority, TUC chief says.TA
Andy Burnham ‘well capable’ of defeating Nigel Farage with Labour majority, TUC chief says
Andy Burnham is “well capable” of defeating Nigel Farage and securing a majority for Labour at the next general election, Paul Nowak has insisted.
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His intervention follows Reform UK’s disastrous conference and a slump in the polls for the right-wing party after a series of scandals over donations. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) General Secretary told the Mirror: “I think the more that the public see of Nigel Farage, the less they like him.”
He added: “If you listen to Nigel Farage and Richard Tice and all the rest of them, it’s like a foregone conclusion that they’ve got the keys to Downing Street. I don’t think that that is the case. I think Andy is well capable of beating Nigel Farage at the next election.
Article continues below
“If it’s a choice between a Prime Minister offering a vision of hope that’s focused on the issues that actually matter to working people, rather than scaremongering and creating division, then I think he’s absolutely got a chance of leading Labour into the next election and securing a majority.”
The TUC boss also dismissed speculation of a snap general election – despite clear evidence of a ‘Burnham bounce’ in the national polls. He said: “I don’t get the sense that the public is crying out for a general election anytime soon. I mean, that’s obviously a decision to be taken by the Prime Minister.
“I think people are more focused on: ‘Let’s see what you can do and deliver the change that we voted for back in July 2024.’ Not voting again, let’s deliver the change you promised.”
But he highlighted Labour’s recent victories over Mr Farage’s Reform UK at the ballot box, including Mr Burnham’s own Westminster comeback at June’s Makerfield by-election.
Article continues below
The following month Labour also emerged victorious at the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, with Bev Craig’s decisive win in the region over Reform who had hoped for a major political upset.
Mr Nowak said: “I think what’s clear is that we have seen a Burnham bounce in the polls. I’m not complacent about that.
“I am still worried about Reform and their impact on British politics. But I think the public are giving him a hearing, and he’s starting to… those breathing space policies, I think, are ones that people will feel in their pockets.”
Andy Burnham ‘well capable’ of defeating Nigel Farage with Labour majority, TUC chief says
Andy Burnham is “well capable” of defeating Nigel Farage and securing a majority for Labour at the next general election, Paul Nowak has insisted.
Article continues below
His intervention follows Reform UK’s disastrous conference and a slump in the polls for the right-wing party after a series of scandals over donations. The Trades Union Congress (TUC) General Secretary told the Mirror: “I think the more that the public see of Nigel Farage, the less they like him.”
He added: “If you listen to Nigel Farage and Richard Tice and all the rest of them, it’s like a foregone conclusion that they’ve got the keys to Downing Street. I don’t think that that is the case. I think Andy is well capable of beating Nigel Farage at the next election.
Article continues below
“If it’s a choice between a Prime Minister offering a vision of hope that’s focused on the issues that actually matter to working people, rather than scaremongering and creating division, then I think he’s absolutely got a chance of leading Labour into the next election and securing a majority.”
The TUC boss also dismissed speculation of a snap general election – despite clear evidence of a ‘Burnham bounce’ in the national polls. He said: “I don’t get the sense that the public is crying out for a general election anytime soon. I mean, that’s obviously a decision to be taken by the Prime Minister.
“I think people are more focused on: ‘Let’s see what you can do and deliver the change that we voted for back in July 2024.’ Not voting again, let’s deliver the change you promised.”
But he highlighted Labour’s recent victories over Mr Farage’s Reform UK at the ballot box, including Mr Burnham’s own Westminster comeback at June’s Makerfield by-election.
Article continues below
The following month Labour also emerged victorious at the Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, with Bev Craig’s decisive win in the region over Reform who had hoped for a major political upset.
Mr Nowak said: “I think what’s clear is that we have seen a Burnham bounce in the polls. I’m not complacent about that.
“I am still worried about Reform and their impact on British politics. But I think the public are giving him a hearing, and he’s starting to… those breathing space policies, I think, are ones that people will feel in their pockets.”
Nigel Farage loses it at Archbishop of Canterbury after row over award to Muslim cleric
The Reform UK leader hit out at the Archbishop of Canterbury over the furore.
Nigel Farage erupted at the Archbishop of Canterbury in a row over her giving an award to a Muslim cleric who praised Osama bin Laden. Hafiz Muhammad Tahir Mehmood Ashrafi received the honour for reconciliation and interfaith cooperation last week on the anniversary of 9/11.