The outcome of the Makerfield by-election will determine the direction of Britain. Harriet Symonds explores how Nigel Farage’s Reform are taking the fight to the King of the North
Reform has been burned once and knows it needs a different tack. In a marked change from the Gorton and Denton by-election strategy earlier in the year, in which the party was seen to underperform, the party will lean heavily into local issues to win in Makerfield.
It is set to be a test not just of the party’s growing reach in Labour heartlands, but of whether Andy Burnham’s personal popularity in Greater Manchester will be enough for Labour to beat Nigel Farage’s party.
Those familiar with the strategy claim keeping the campaign as local as possible will play well against Burnham in such a consequential by-election, which could see him become the next Prime Minister.
Their thinking is that any increased interest in Burnham’s national policy platform will draw attention away from local issues in Makerfield, allowing Reform to frame this as a by-election for Makerfield over a by-election for Prime Minister.
Reform’s candidate Robert Kenyon was deliberately chosen because he is hyper-local. A plumber, NHS worker and army reservist, he is well positioned as the antithesis of Westminster ambition.
The party will play heavily on the fact that their candidate is a local man born and bred in the constituency which the party will seek to pit against career opportunist Andy Burnham. Reform figures believe this type of candidate gives them the the best chance of winning against a well known figure like Burnham.
However, his campaign has already hit a hitch: there were allegations this week that an X social media account of his contained a number of sexist, violent and homophobic posts. A Labour party spokesperson said the posts were “disgusting” and added they show “he’s not fit to represent Makerfield”.
Reform, however, has said he will not be investigated, with a spokesperson saying the “comments were made before he was in politics”.
A Reform UK source told The House: “Rob is genuinely a local candidate. In the face of Burnham’s careerism, Rob is resonating on the doorstep.”
Kenyon has also been labelled as the party’s Hannah Spencer, a reference to the new Green MP who was a plumber before going on to win the Gorton and Denton by-election.
A Reform source described him as a “normal person who never planned to get into politics” a framing the party believes allows him to sidestep the polish and scrutiny typically expected of parliamentary candidates.
Unlike in Gorton and Denton, the Greens themselves are unlikely to be a threat, with University of Manchester professor of political science Rob Ford dismissing them as “a rounding error,” telling The House: “They have never been a thing in Makerfield, the people there hate the clean air zone, as a large majority commute to work by car and have little other option due to poor public transport.”
Reform’s hyperlocal message is intended to sit alongside the party’s national policy platform. Reform campaign literature seen by The House promises action on the cost of living, cutting immigration and tackling crime.
The party is also seeking to exploit tensions within Labour over Brexit, fuelled in part by Burnham’s leadership rival Wes Streeting. Reform will seek to portray Burnham as inconsistent on rejoining the EU and willing to adjust his policy positions for his own gain.
On immigration, Reform will argue Burnham has shifted to align with Shabana Mahmood’s policy changes, casting him as career opportunist.
“Captain flip-flop, no one can believe a word he’s said. It’s a message that will do well,” said Richard Tice, Reform MP and the party’s deputy leader.
“Forget King of the North, he’s King of the u-turn. It almost makes Keir Starmer look straight and principled.”
In Gorton and Denton, Reform ran heavily on a “Vote Reform to get Starmer out” platform. However, this didn’t seem to constitute a strong local ground campaign, likely exacerbated by tactical anti-Reform voting, meaning the party lagged behind expectations.
In Makerfield, this line has been changed to “Vote Reform to get Labour out”, taking the attention away from Starmer and positioning Reform as the main opposition.
Alongside that, attack adverts depict Burnham as a careerist who will “stand anywhere” and “say anything”, doubling down on their message that the seat would be used as a stepping stone to No 10. Reform sources say this theme will be central throughout the campaign.
However, there is also caution. Reform insiders acknowledge Burnham’s popularity across Greater Manchester and fear that overplaying personal attacks could backfire.
On the ground, the party is quietly confident. Nigel Farage’s Reform UK won more than half the vote in the area at the local elections, giving it a strong base.
A Reform source said: “We’ve learned and evolved from past elections. This will be our best campaign to date.”
However a Reform source who has campaigned in the seat noted there was “a lot more people going with Labour than I’ve seen for a long while”, pointing to Burnham’s personal pull.
“He is a game changer, without a shadow of doubt. We’re gonna have to work our socks off”, said Gawain Towler, former Reform spinner.
Still, senior figures dismiss talk of a “Burnham bounce” as overstated.
Even so, all the sitting Reform MPs are expected to be deployed in the constituency to deliver the win.
Reform also face an electoral threat from both sides in the form of the Conservatives and Rupert Lowe’s Restore Party, raising the risk of vote-splitting on the right.
Former Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg and Edward Leigh had urged a non-aggression pact with Reform, but Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch ruled out any arrangement.
“Voters should always have the opportunity to vote Conservative”, the party chairman Kevin Hollinrake told The House.
Reform is equally dismissive.
“We’ve always said no deal with the Tories. We’ve always said no deals. There’s no chance they’ll get their deposit back, the brand is so toxic,” says Tice.
The Conservative candidate, Michael Winstanley, is described as a “very well-connected Tory figure”, though MPs privately concede there may be limited on-the-ground campaigning. Attention is instead being focused on the Scottish by-election in Aberdeen South, where the party believes it has a chance of defeating the SNP and Reform.
One Tory source said there would likely be minimal MP involvement in Makerfield at all. Badenoch’s approach at the last PMQs — focusing on North Sea oil rather than issues prevalent to Makerfield — has reinforced that sense of distance.
Although the party lost its £500 deposit in Gorton and Denton, Conservative figures expect a “slightly better” performance here, citing more affluent pockets in the seat.
Meanwhile, Restore’s candidate Rebecca Shephard adds another variable. The party’s campaign is being organised locally by the disgraced former Conservative MP Scott Benton, who resigned in 2024 following a lobbying scandal. The House understands Reform previously blocked Benton from standing for the party in Blackpool South.
Those close to the Reform campaign argue that both the Conservatives and Restore are peripheral distractions, insisting the election is effectively a two-horse race between Reform and Labour — and increasingly between Reform and Burnham himself.
A Reform source said: “It’s vital that voters in Makerfield understand that only Reform UK can stop Labour here”.
Battle For Britain – How Reform Plans To Take On Andy Burnham
Political competition is at the heart of every democracy. Elections are not only contests between individuals but also battles between different ideas about how a country should be governed. Political parties attempt to persuade voters that their vision for the future is the right one, while challenging the weaknesses of their opponents. The headline “Battle For Britain – How Reform Plans To Take On Andy Burnham” reflects the growing importance of political rivalry and the struggle for influence in modern British politics.
If Andy Burnham becomes a central figure in national politics, opposition parties such as Reform UK would be expected to develop strategies aimed at challenging his leadership and attracting voters who may be dissatisfied with the direction of government. Reform’s approach would likely focus on distinguishing itself from traditional parties by presenting itself as a force for political change, while questioning whether Burnham and his allies can deliver the improvements they promise.
One of the key areas of political competition would be the economy. Economic issues often determine the success or failure of governments because they directly affect people’s everyday lives. Questions about wages, taxation, inflation, employment, business growth, and public spending influence how voters judge political leaders. Reform UK would likely argue that a different economic approach is needed, focusing on reducing unnecessary spending, supporting businesses, and encouraging economic growth.
Burnham’s supporters, however, would likely argue that investment in public services is essential for long-term prosperity. They may emphasise the importance of improving healthcare, education, transport, and housing, even if such improvements require significant government spending. The disagreement reflects a broader political debate about the role of government: whether the priority should be reducing state involvement or strengthening public investment.
Taxation would also be a major area of debate. Governments must decide how much revenue is needed to fund public services and how that burden should be distributed among citizens and businesses. Reform may seek to appeal to voters who believe taxes are too high or that government spending needs tighter control. Supporters of Burnham’s approach may argue that fair taxation is necessary to maintain essential services and reduce inequality.
Another important issue in any political contest would be immigration. Reform UK has often placed immigration and border control at the centre of its political message. Supporters of stricter immigration policies argue that reducing migration could ease pressure on housing, public services, and infrastructure. They believe that stronger border controls are necessary to ensure that government resources are managed effectively.
Critics of stricter immigration policies argue that immigration also provides economic benefits. Many sectors rely on migrant workers, and immigrants contribute through employment, taxation, and entrepreneurship. They argue that the challenge is not simply reducing immigration but creating a system that balances economic needs, public concerns, and humanitarian responsibilities.
Public services would represent another major battleground. Burnham has built much of his political identity around issues such as regional development, transport, and improving services for communities. Supporters may view this as evidence of a practical approach focused on people’s everyday experiences. They may argue that national politics should pay greater attention to local problems rather than focusing only on Westminster debates.
Reform supporters, however, may argue that existing political systems have failed to solve long-standing problems. They may claim that traditional parties have had many years to address issues such as healthcare waiting times, housing shortages, and economic inequality but have not delivered sufficient results. By presenting itself as an alternative to established politics, Reform seeks to attract voters who feel frustrated with the status quo.
Leadership style would also play a significant role in the competition between Burnham and his opponents. Modern elections are often influenced by perceptions of personality, trust, and communication ability. Some voters prefer leaders who appear experienced and reliable, while others are attracted to politicians who promise major change. Burnham’s supporters may highlight his experience and connection with local communities, while Reform may attempt to portray itself as a fresh alternative.
The media environment has transformed political battles in recent years. Social media, online platforms, and digital campaigning allow parties to communicate directly with voters without relying entirely on traditional media. Political messages can spread quickly, but misinformation and exaggerated claims can also create challenges. Successful campaigns require not only strong policies but also effective communication strategies.
A major challenge for Reform would be converting public dissatisfaction into lasting political support. Many voters express frustration with governments but do not always switch their support to alternative parties. To succeed, Reform would need to demonstrate that it has realistic policies, experienced candidates, and the ability to govern effectively rather than simply criticise existing leaders.
Meanwhile, Burnham and his supporters would need to demonstrate that their approach can deliver practical results. Political promises create expectations, and voters often judge governments based on whether they see improvements in areas affecting their daily lives. Economic performance, public service outcomes, and the ability to respond to national challenges would all influence public opinion.
The battle between different political visions also reflects deeper questions about Britain’s future direction. Should the country focus on stronger state intervention or greater individual responsibility? Should investment in public services take priority over reducing government spending? How should Britain respond to global economic changes and social challenges? These debates extend beyond individual politicians and represent competing ideas about society.
Ultimately, political success depends on more than attacking opponents. Reform UK would need to offer convincing solutions, while Burnham’s supporters would need to demonstrate that their policies can create meaningful improvements. Voters generally respond not only to criticism but also to clear explanations of how political parties intend to make people’s lives better.
In conclusion, “Battle For Britain – How Reform Plans To Take On Andy Burnham” represents the wider struggle between competing political movements seeking to shape the country’s future. The contest would involve debates over the economy, immigration, public services, taxation, and leadership. Reform may attempt to present itself as a challenger to the established political system, while Burnham’s supporters may argue for a more community-focused approach based on public investment and social responsibility.
The outcome of such a political battle would ultimately depend on public trust. Voters will judge leaders not only by their promises but by their ability to deliver practical results. In modern Britain, political competition remains intense, and the parties that succeed will be those capable of combining strong ideas with credible plans for the future.