Blow for Nigel Farage as Reform hits nine-month low in polls
Nigel Farage and Reform UK have been hit by another difficult set of opinion-poll figures, with the party’s support falling to levels not seen for many months.
The latest numbers add to a series of setbacks that have followed Reform’s strong performance in local and devolved elections earlier this year. They also underline how quickly the political environment has changed since Andy Burnham became prime minister.
The headline figure is significant, but it needs to be placed in context. Opinion polls measure voting intentions at a particular moment; they are not election results and can move considerably between surveys.
Nevertheless, the direction of travel has become an important issue for Reform.
Reform falls back
A YouGov poll published on 22 September put Reform UK on 21 per cent, down two points. Labour stood at 23 per cent, while the Conservatives were also on 21 per cent. The Green Party was on 14 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 12 per cent.
The 21 per cent figure represented the lowest share recorded by YouGov since the pollster restarted its Westminster voting-intention tracker in January 2025.
That is particularly notable because Reform had previously established itself as a leading force in national polling.
The party’s position changed considerably during 2026. Following Labour’s change of leadership and Burnham’s arrival at Downing Street, Labour began recovering ground in several national surveys.
Ipsos had already recorded Labour ahead of Reform in August, with Labour on 28 per cent and Reform on 25 per cent. Ipsos described the development as a “speed bump” for Reform after a period in which the party had built considerable momentum.
By September, other pollsters were also showing Reform below the levels it had reached earlier in the year.
More in Common subsequently put Reform on 22 per cent, one point behind the Conservatives and four points behind Labour, which stood at 26 per cent. The polling organisation described Reform’s figure as its joint lowest in 18 months.
The precise numbers differ from pollster to pollster, but the broader picture is consistent: Reform is no longer enjoying the dominant polling position it held for extended periods.
Farage’s personal ratings
The party’s polling difficulties have coincided with weaker personal ratings for its leader.
YouGov’s September political favourability survey found that 69 per cent of Britons had an unfavourable opinion of Farage, while 24 per cent had a favourable opinion.
YouGov said the 69 per cent unfavourable figure was the highest recorded by its tracker during the ten years it has measured Farage’s favourability. His net rating was minus 45.
That does not mean every voter who has an unfavourable opinion of Farage would vote against Reform. Personal popularity and voting intention are separate measures.
But the figures matter because Farage is unusually central to Reform’s public identity.
Unlike larger established parties with long-standing institutions and multiple nationally recognised politicians, Reform has built much of its profile around its leader.
That creates both an advantage and a vulnerability.
Farage can provide a clear national message and attract media attention. At the same time, changes in public opinion towards him can potentially affect perceptions of the wider party.
The effect of recent controversies
The polling decline has taken place alongside several controversies surrounding Reform.
One of the most significant concerns has involved party donations.
In September, allegations emerged concerning whether Reform had complied with electoral rules relating to donations. Farage rejected allegations that the party had accepted illegal foreign donations. The Metropolitan Police subsequently confirmed that it was investigating claims concerning possible breaches of party donation rules.
Reform has denied wrongdoing.
The controversy also overshadowed the party’s annual conference in Birmingham. Instead of the conference being dominated entirely by Reform’s policy programme and its plans for its proposed first 100 days in government, questions about funding became a major part of the political discussion.
For a party attempting to present itself as a government-in-waiting, that creates an obvious communications challenge.
It is important, however, to distinguish an investigation from a finding of wrongdoing. Police inquiries do not by themselves establish that electoral offences have been committed.
A changing political landscape
Another factor is the change at the top of British politics.
Reform had benefited from dissatisfaction with the previous Labour government and had frequently polled ahead of the Conservatives.
The arrival of Burnham as Labour leader and prime minister changed that environment.
Ipsos reported in August that Burnham was preferred as prime minister to Farage and Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, although the same polling also showed widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance.
That combination is important.
A governing party can be unpopular on particular issues without automatically losing support to the opposition party that is currently attracting the most attention.
Reform therefore faces competition not only from Labour but also from the Conservatives and smaller parties.
The Conservatives, in particular, remain an important part of the equation.
For years, Reform’s growth has partly depended on attracting voters who previously supported the Conservatives. If Conservative support stabilises, some voters who might otherwise have moved to Reform may remain with the party under Badenoch.
The September More in Common figures illustrated this competition directly, with the Conservatives narrowly ahead of Reform.
Reform’s challenge from the right
Reform is also facing competition from political figures seeking support from voters further to the right.
Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain represents one such challenge.
Farage’s party has traditionally relied on a coalition of voters motivated by immigration, Brexit, dissatisfaction with the established parties and opposition to aspects of government policy.
Keeping that coalition together becomes more complicated when another political organisation attempts to attract some of the same voters.
Reform’s leadership therefore has to balance two different objectives.
It needs to maintain enthusiasm among its core supporters while also persuading voters who may be considering the party for the first time that it is capable of functioning as a government.
That second task is particularly important after Reform’s electoral advances in May.
From protest movement to governing organisation
The central question for Reform may now be less about whether it can attract attention and more about whether it can sustain support.
The party made major gains in local and devolved elections earlier this year. Those results demonstrated that Reform could convert national attention into electoral representation.
But governing requires a different political structure.
The party needs candidates, local organisations, policy teams, parliamentary preparation and a disciplined approach to public messaging.
Recent difficulties in Wales have highlighted the organisational challenge.
Dan Thomas stepped down as Reform’s Welsh leader after being arrested on suspicion of assault and controlling or coercive behaviour. He denied wrongdoing and was released without charge. Around the same time, Reform Senedd member Sarah Cooper-Lesadd defected to Plaid Cymru. Farage subsequently appointed Helen Jenner as the new Welsh leader.
Those events are not directly responsible for national polling movements, but they contribute to the wider question of how Reform manages rapid expansion.
Tactical voting could become important
Another issue emerging from recent polling is tactical voting.
YouGov reported on 23 September that in a hypothetical constituency contest where Labour and Reform were the two viable candidates, Labour would attract 41 per cent compared with 26 per cent for Reform.
The survey also found substantial willingness among Green and Liberal Democrat voters to vote tactically against Reform where they believed it could prevent Reform from winning.
These figures should not be interpreted as an election forecast. They are measurements of attitudes in a particular survey.
But they demonstrate one of the structural challenges facing Reform.
A party can have substantial national support without that support translating evenly into parliamentary seats. The geographical distribution of votes, local contests and tactical behaviour can all affect the eventual result.
That is why national polling percentages alone cannot tell the whole story.
Is this a temporary setback?
The latest figures do not establish that Reform’s earlier rise has ended permanently.
Indeed, the polling remains competitive. Reform is still receiving the support of roughly one in five voters in several major surveys.
The party also has time to change its position before the next general election.
Political campaigns can produce substantial movements in public opinion, particularly when voters begin paying closer attention to policy proposals and party leaders.
Reform’s challenge is therefore to determine what it wants to become.
Farage has spent years building a political movement around Brexit, immigration, national sovereignty and opposition to established parties. The party’s recent growth has taken it into a different phase, where questions about taxation, public services, economic policy, government administration and candidate quality become increasingly important.
The September polling provides a warning sign, but it does not provide a final verdict.
Reform has moved from being a relatively small political force to one of Britain’s major parties in a remarkably short period.
That growth has brought greater scrutiny.
For Farage, the immediate task is to show that the party can withstand falling poll numbers, internal difficulties and public controversy while maintaining a coherent political message.
Whether the current decline proves temporary or develops into a longer trend will depend on how voters respond to Reform’s policies, its leadership and the competing offers from Labour, the Conservatives and other parties.
For now, the numbers tell a clear but limited story: Reform’s support has fallen from the much higher levels recorded during its earlier surge, and several recent polls place it behind or level with the Conservatives.
The next phase of British politics will show whether that represents a temporary dip or the beginning of a more sustained change in the electoral landscape.
