Andy Burnham’s popularity is down five points, new polling shows (Image: Getty)

Nigel Farage‘s Reform UK is second with 25%, while the Tories are on 18%.

Labour, which had nosedived in polls since the 2024 general election, overtook Reform in polling after Mr Burnham became leader.

He is also facing pressure over the small boats crisis following a surge in crossings in recent weeks amid favourable weather conditions.

Mr Burnham will kick off the second week of his summer tour of the UK tomorrow as he looks at issues “ignored by Westminster for too long”.

These issues include ending rough sleeping and resolving the “toxic dump, fly-tipping and environmental vandalism scandal”.

Mr Burnham will also be at Number 10 North during the week.

Blow to Andy Burnham as New PM’s Popularity Takes Hit in New Poll

Andy Burnham has suffered his first notable setback in the opinion polls since becoming Prime Minister, with new figures showing that his personal popularity has fallen even as Labour continues to maintain a narrow lead over its rivals. The decline is unlikely to represent a political crisis for the new Labour leader, but it provides an early warning that his honeymoon period may already be beginning to fade.

The latest Opinium voting-intention poll puts Labour on 27%, unchanged from the previous survey. Reform UK is close behind on 25%, while the Conservatives are on 18%. The more significant movement concerns Burnham himself: his net approval rating has fallen five points to +11. Despite the decline, he remains the only major political leader tested by Opinium with a positive approval rating.

At first sight, describing this as a major “blow” to Burnham may appear excessive. A net approval rating of +11 is still relatively healthy for a British prime minister, particularly in an era when recent leaders have struggled to maintain public support. Burnham also retains a substantial advantage over Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Reform UK leader Nigel Farage when voters are asked who would make the best prime minister.

Nevertheless, the direction of travel matters. Burnham entered Downing Street with unusually strong public support. His first weeks in office were characterised by a series of highly visible announcements designed to demonstrate that the new government was different from the previous Labour administration. Cheaper bus fares, reductions in energy costs and a strong focus on regional issues helped create an impression of a prime minister who was concentrating on practical improvements rather than making grand ideological promises.

YouGov’s latest favourability figures illustrate just how successful that initial strategy has been. Nearly half of Britons, 46%, currently have a favourable opinion of Burnham, while 33% view him unfavourably. His net favourability rating of +13 is the highest recorded for a prime minister by YouGov since Boris Johnson’s surge in popularity during the early stages of the Covid pandemic in 2020.

That makes the small fall recorded by Opinium particularly interesting. It suggests that while Burnham remains personally popular, voters are beginning to form more complicated opinions about his government. The initial excitement surrounding a new prime minister can only last for so long. Eventually, voters begin to judge the government on difficult decisions rather than announcements.

This transition could prove critical for Burnham.

His first weeks have largely been a political honeymoon. The Financial Times recently described his early period in office in precisely those terms, noting that his modest and relatively inexpensive policies have connected well with voters. His approach has involved highly visible measures that do not necessarily require enormous increases in public spending.

The political challenge is that the honeymoon cannot continue indefinitely. Parliament is now returning, and Burnham faces a series of much more difficult decisions. His government must deal with the upcoming Budget, welfare reform, immigration, prison overcrowding, energy policy and the wider challenge of stimulating economic growth. These issues involve competing interests and are far harder to resolve through popular announcements.

The Budget could be the biggest test.

Burnham has inherited significant pressure on the public finances. Chancellor John Healey faces competing demands for higher spending while also having to maintain credibility with financial markets. If Labour raises taxes, some voters may become disappointed. If it cuts spending or reduces welfare payments, others may turn against the government. If it borrows heavily, the government could face criticism over debt and economic stability.

In other words, Burnham’s political popularity may now depend on decisions that are considerably less comfortable than announcing cheaper bus fares.

Immigration represents another potentially dangerous issue. Public concern remains high despite a decline in net migration. Recent analysis found that 86% of Britons perceive tension between immigrants and people born in Britain. Burnham must therefore demonstrate that his government can create a migration system that is controlled, credible and fair.

This could become particularly difficult because Burnham’s government is considering tougher measures concerning settled status and deportations. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood has proposed reforms influenced partly by Denmark’s approach to immigration, including stronger conditions surrounding settlement and access to benefits. Burnham will eventually have to decide how far he is prepared to go.

Immigration is an issue where Reform UK has a clear advantage in setting the political agenda. Nigel Farage’s party has built much of its support around opposition to high immigration and illegal Channel crossings. Labour cannot afford to ignore those concerns, particularly when Reform is only two percentage points behind Labour in the latest Opinium voting-intention figures.

However, the poll also shows that Burnham remains in a considerably stronger position than his rivals. Kemi Badenoch’s net approval rating is -4, while Farage’s is -28. Burnham’s +11 therefore represents a substantial advantage.

This is important because a decline in popularity does not necessarily mean voters are moving towards the opposition. A prime minister can become slightly less popular while remaining considerably more popular than alternative leaders. The current figures appear to demonstrate exactly that.

Indeed, Labour’s overall position remains remarkably stable. With 27% support, the party continues to hold a narrow lead over Reform. This is particularly significant because Labour’s position had deteriorated badly under Burnham’s predecessor, Keir Starmer. Burnham’s arrival has therefore produced a substantial improvement in the party’s political fortunes.

Ipsos polling conducted earlier in August similarly found Labour three points ahead of Reform, although the difference remained within the poll’s margin of error. The survey also found that Burnham was preferred as prime minister to both Farage and Badenoch.

The contrast with Starmer is particularly striking. YouGov found that Burnham’s favourable rating increased to 46%, twelve points higher than before he entered Downing Street. At the same time, the proportion viewing him unfavourably fell by ten points.

The question now is whether Burnham can maintain this advantage once voters experience the consequences of his policies.

One potential problem is expectations. When a new prime minister becomes extremely popular very quickly, supporters can develop high hopes for what the government will achieve. Burnham has spent his early weeks promising action on transport, energy, social care, housing and the economy. If progress is slower than expected, public disappointment could develop.

This is particularly relevant because some of the most popular policies announced so far are relatively easy to understand. A cheaper bus fare has an immediate and visible effect. Reducing energy costs is also easy for households to appreciate. But improving productivity, reforming social care or reducing economic inactivity is much more complicated.

The public’s expectations already reveal this tension. An Ipsos survey found that 29% of Britons were positive about Burnham becoming prime minister, while exactly the same proportion were negative. A further 33% were neutral. At the same time, 62% believed Britain was heading in the wrong direction and 44% gave the Labour government a low score for running the country.

These figures show that personal popularity and satisfaction with the country can exist separately. People may like Burnham personally while remaining deeply worried about Britain’s economic and social problems.

That could ultimately become one of the biggest challenges of his premiership. Burnham cannot rely indefinitely on being more popular than his opponents. Eventually, voters will ask whether they are personally better off, whether public services are improving and whether the government is dealing effectively with immigration, housing and the economy.

The economic picture currently gives Burnham some reason for optimism. Recent data showed stronger-than-expected economic activity, with the UK economy expanding by 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026. Services-sector activity also strengthened and consumer confidence reached a two-year high.

But economic growth is not guaranteed to translate into political popularity. Households remain concerned about the cost of living, while the government faces difficult decisions over taxation and public spending. If economic conditions deteriorate, Burnham’s popularity could come under much greater pressure.

There is also a significant political threat from Reform. Although Labour currently leads, the margin is narrow. Opinium’s latest figures put the two parties just two points apart.

This means that Burnham’s government cannot afford to become complacent. Reform has demonstrated that it can mobilise voters who are frustrated with the traditional parties. If Labour disappoints voters on immigration, taxation or living standards, Reform could quickly benefit.

At the same time, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch is attempting to rebuild her party. The Conservatives currently trail both Labour and Reform in the Opinium poll, but their position could change if Badenoch succeeds in presenting the party as a credible alternative.

For now, however, Burnham retains a clear personal advantage.

The fall in his approval rating should therefore be interpreted as an early warning rather than a disaster. A five-point decline is politically significant because it breaks the impression that his popularity can only rise, but it does not fundamentally alter the current political landscape. Burnham remains more popular than his opponents and Labour remains ahead of Reform.

The real question is what happens next.

The next few months will force Burnham to move beyond the easy politics of his honeymoon period. He will have to make decisions about taxes, welfare, immigration, prisons and economic policy. Each decision will create winners and losers, and some of the groups affected will inevitably become unhappy with the government.

His political skill will be measured by how he manages those conflicts.

If Burnham can maintain public confidence while delivering tangible improvements, the current dip could prove temporary. His early popularity could give him enough political capital to implement difficult reforms. But if his government begins to lose credibility over the economy, immigration or public services, the five-point fall could become the beginning of a much larger decline.

For Labour, the warning is clear. The party has recovered significantly since Burnham became leader, but its advantage over Reform is narrow. The Prime Minister is personally popular, yet voters remain deeply concerned about the direction of Britain.

Andy Burnham has therefore reached an important stage in his premiership. The honeymoon is still alive, but it is no longer enough. Voters are beginning to judge the government on what it actually does rather than what it promises to do.

The latest poll may be described as a “blow” to Burnham, but it is a relatively small one. His popularity remains unusually strong by recent British political standards. The danger is not that he has suddenly become unpopular; it is that the expectations created by his remarkable opening weeks may prove difficult to sustain.

The coming Budget, immigration reforms, welfare decisions and economic performance will determine whether Burnham can turn his early popularity into lasting political support. If he succeeds, the current dip will soon be forgotten. If he fails, today’s modest warning could become the first sign that the Prime Minister’s honeymoon is coming to an end.

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