Few punters would put their money on Keir Starmer to remain PM. But they’re pretty sure who’ll replace him.
Keir Starmer is heading for a fall, but one Labour figure is racing ahead (Image: Getty)
The Peter Mandelson scandal is just the latest blow to afflict Sir Keir. It’s been one humiliation after another, over winter fuel, small boats, grooming gangs, crime, freebies, tax, welfare, digital ID and much more besides. It would be funny, if it wasn’t so dreadful. So far, the PM has survived by throwing junior colleagues under the bus, but it will be his turn soon enough. A dire set of election results on May 7 could seal his fate. Labour MPs are now plotting to remove him swiftly afterwards. The nation might cheer his exit, but they won’t like what comes next.
The problem isn’t just Starmer. It’s the party he leads. Labour members and activists have a weird idea of what it takes to run a country. Just a few years ago, they thought Jeremy Corbyn was the answer to our problems. Morgan McSweeney hand-picked Starmer to drag Labour out of the clutches of the hard left. Sir Keir was the best he could find, which says everything about Labour’s shallow talent pool. The PM was always a puppet. And with McSweeney gone, his strings have been cut. That leftie rabble is now circling, ready to take their revenge.
The only thing keeping Starmer in office is that the leadership candidates aren’t fit to run a whelk stall, let alone a medium-sized European country. And if there was a sensible challenger out there, MPs and activists wouldn’t vote for them.
Self-styled ‘King of the North’ Andy Burnham doesn’t even know how the bond market works, hardly ideal when the country depends on it to stay solvent. Party activists adore Ed Miliband, but the country previously rejected his bid to become PM, and he doesn’t fancy another humiliation. Wes Streeting shows the odd flash of realism, grasping that Britain can’t tax and spend forever. Labour would never pick a man with such outlandish notions.
Which brings us, with grim inevitability, to the bookies’ favourite. And it’s former deputy PM Angela Rayner. She’s pulling comfortably ahead in the leadership stakes, leaving the rest of the field trailing.
According to Freebets.com, she’s 5/2 to be the next occupant of No.10. That means £1 bet would win a measly £2.50, plus your stake back. Hardly worth the bother. Miliband and Streeting come a distant second at 6/1, reflecting their much lower chances of success. A £1 bet would win £6, plus that stake. Burnham is a long shot at 11/1. Nobody else figures, because there is nobody else. Frightening.
So it’s Rayner’s race to lose. She still has hurdles to clear, of which by far the most daunting is the £40,000 stamp duty scandal. I’m beginning to suspect the sleaze investigation will let her off with a slapped wrist. It would explain why the bookies have her so high in the running. “Red Ange” is romping home.
The prospect of Rayner moving into No 10 with her boyfriend is the nightmare scenario for millions. Not just in the UK, but overseas, where financial experts are urgently trying to warn us that she’ll terrify markets, drive UK borrowing costs even higher and trigger a sterling crisis. Basically, she’s the next Liz Truss. If Angela Rayner becomes PM, as seems more likely by the day, then all bets on the UK are off.