Farage is about to humiliate Starmer – and win 12 towns and cities that only vote Labour

Keir Starmer is set to take a battering in May 7 local elections, as voters in Labour heartlands show their fury with his Government. Labour is set to lose control of traditional strongholds in a result reminiscent of Boris Johnson’s triumph in “red wall” seats during the 2019 general election.

But this time, the victors will be Reform UK, in a boost to Nigel Farage’s hopes of becoming Prime Minister once the next election comes around. That’s the finding of a major poll which predicted likely results in councils across the country. The survey, by JL Partners for the Telegraph, is what’s known as an MRP poll, questioning far more people than a usual opinion poll and allowing results to be predicted at a local level.

For millions of people across the country, these elections are important because they will decide who delivers vital local services such as care for the elderly.

They will also affect the fortunes of the parties nationally. Reform hopes to demonstrate that it has support across the country, and really could form a government after the next election.

A key part of Nigel Farage’s strategy is to make gains at the expense of the Conservatives as well as Labour, to give the impression that only Reform have a real chance of kicking Sir Keir Starmer out of office.

And the MRP poll suggests he may succeed in that aim – with some Tory-led councils falling to Reform too.

Meanwhile, anxious Labour MPs will be watching these results with trepidation. In fact, while there are predictions that Labour could suffer a seismic defeat in Wales and lose further ground in Scotland, many of Sir Keir’s colleagues believe losses in English local councils are most likely to provoke new speculation about his leadership.

It’s worth noting that voters in this survery were asked who they planned to back before the newest revelations about the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador – which may hurt Labour’s support even more.

One of the biggest upsets could come in Rochdale, Greater Manchester, where Labour currently hold 43 out of 60 council seats.

The poll doesn’t tell us how many seats each party will get, but it predicts Reform could get 44% of the vote – far ahead of any other party, with Labour second on just 18%.

Reform could also storm to victory in Labour-held Hartlepool, Teesside, where the poll suggests it is on course to win 39% of the vote with Labour on 27%.

In Labour-held Barnsley, South Yorkshire, Reform is on course to win 39% of the vote, the poll suggests, with 27% backing Labour.

Other Labour-held areas that appear set to switch to Reform include Hull, former fiefdom of Labour legend John Prescott, Sunderland, where MPs include Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Gateshead.

Many of Reform’s likley gains are in the north, but Nigel Farage’s popularity isn’t limited to any one part of the country. For example, polling shows he could also storm to victory in Labour-led Thurrock, Essex.

This is significant because the Tories are a major force in Thurrock – but may be eclipsed by Reform on May 7.

And Mr Farage’s party could also gain control of councils the Conservatives currently run, such as Walsall and Dudley, both in the West Midlands, and Newcastle-under-Lyme in Staffordshire, in the wider Midlands region.

In total, the survey finds 29 councils where Reform will win more votes than any other party and at least a third of the total vote. The remaining votes will be spread between Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrats, Greens and (in many places) local independents.

In 12 of these councils, Labour is currently in control.

Others, such as Oldham and Basildon, are councils where no party has overall control but Labour is in charge as the largest party.

A few, such as Essex and Suffolk as well as those mentioned above, are run by the Tories.

Of course, no poll is a substitute for the real vote on May 7.

And local voters may be more concerned about their bin collections than shenanigans at Westminster. Even so, they hold the fate of Nigel Farage, Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch and Sir Keir Starmer in their hands