Some ask why Putin would attack Europe if he knows, realistically, that it won’t end in military success. But that thesis rests on defining success as territorial conquest or some other concrete concession. Putin is a rational actor despite the desire to brush him off as an out-of-touch megalomaniac, but he is operating according to a logic that the West has continued to miscalculate. Still he is treated as a member of the international system.
Putin’s goal with an incursion into Nato would not be a clear victory, but a continued undermining of Western institutions. He is operating as a well-trained KGB agent would: confuse, subvert, fracture the opposition.
When the goals of war are murkier, and the way it is carried out is itself shadowy, as is the case in hybrid war, it becomes even easier to turn a blind eye. But hybrid war is still war, and the extension of Putin’s war into Nato territory is very much an existential threat that must be countered.
And the only way to counter a dictator is through strength: in this case, a policy of deterrence that leaves no question about a) where the red line has been drawn, and b) what will be done if it is crossed.
Stepping up support for Ukraine and engaging in a broader politics of deterrence aimed at the Putin regime, are, of course, two sides of the same coin. A demonstration that the West stands unconditionally with its ally would be a show of strength that any dictator would take seriously.
But in conjunction, Europe must issue a clear warning about what it will do if Putin dares to mount an incursion into a Nato country – and then be ready to enforce it. This warning must come with an already-agreed-upon set of implementation mechanisms that will kick into effect immediately if the trigger comes to pass. No more hesitation or discussion.
So, at this critical juncture, I am calling on Europe to match Putin in the urgency and ruthlessness with which he has been waging war in Ukraine, with an eye toward the imminent threat to eastern Europe.
Europe must:
- Provide complete protection of Ukrainian airspace – the bare minimum for an ally at war.
- Immediately send Ukraine all the weapons it needs; no delay. Why are Greek Patriot systems defending Saudi energy infrastructure when war is at Europe’s doorstep?
- Instead of issuing more rounds of sanctions, enforce the existing packages that are in place, which are more than powerful enough on paper but have been evaded shamelessly by the Russian authorities. Everyone knows who the violators are; now it’s time to go after them with all of the enforcement mechanisms at Europe’s disposal.
- Initiate a complete cessation of diplomatic affairs with Russia, including recalling all ambassadors from Moscow, barring Russia from participation in all international bodies founded on democratic principles; and immediately terminating all official language that so much as acknowledges Russia as a legitimate international actor.
- Seize Russian sovereign funds immediately and use them to power the war effort in Ukraine. Why is Belgium acting as the custodian of Russian money? It is absolutely unconscionable that Putin is taking advantage of European legal protections while openly waging war at its northern border.
Steps one to three are immediate actions that must be taken to defend Ukraine. Steps four and five are the steps that must be coordinated now, and made explicit, to provide a credible threat against future military action.
Most importantly, all of this must be done with the recognition that the West is engaged in all-out war – fighting not just to defend an ally, but for its very own survival, and the survival of democracy worldwide.
Vladimir Putin has in recent weeks notched a series of wins in his offensive against the West. John Ratcliff, the director of the CIA, travelled to Moscow to speak to Russian officials, but we have little idea of everything that was discussed, or what compromises may have been made with the regime.
Then, Trump’s trusty negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner paid their own visit to Moscow to negotiate with the Russian leader. I believe the trip was the next step in a series of concessions to Putin, thus bolstering his confidence in his ability to manipulate the West.
To make matters worse, the decisive victory of the AfD in local Germany elections only further emboldens the despot, cementing his conviction that he can play a role in orchestrating Western politics.
And yet, Nato’s eastern flank seems to finally be waking up to the threat posed by the regime. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, spoke with Nato secretary general Mark Rutte about the imminent threat to eastern Europe and warned against a repeat of the 1938 Munich appeasement.
The countries of the East, given their immediate proximity to Russia, understand the urgency of the threat in a way that western Europe and America still do not.
I welcome these realisations, but I hope they are not too little too late. It seems that at least parts of Europe are waking up from their long slumber. But they are still in that in-between state between sleep and wakefulness, where you start to take in your external surroundings but don’t quite sharply register them as reality. Slowly dawning recognition is not going to be enough to win the war against Putin.
Every time I write about the conflict, the stakes get higher. Originally, tough diplomacy may have been enough to see off the Russian threat. Later, robustly enforced economic sanctions could have done the job. Later yet, more limited military assistance to Ukraine would have been sufficient. But now, there is no option short of the kind of full-throated war effort that will guarantee Ukrainian victory and, in doing so, lead to the collapse of the Putin regime.
Yes, I said it: nothing but the destruction of the Russian state in its current form will be enough to protect the continued peace and prosperity of the West. As long as Putin’s regime lives on, it will pose an existential threat to democracy worldwide.
The war in Ukraine will not stop if Putin gets the Donbas; it will just change form and move forward to the Baltics, and then the rest of Europe, as its leaders are now starting to recognise.
Some ask why Putin would attack Europe if he knows, realistically, that it won’t end in military success. But that thesis rests on defining success as territorial conquest or some other concrete concession. Putin is a rational actor despite the desire to brush him off as an out-of-touch megalomaniac, but he is operating according to a logic that the West has continued to miscalculate. Still he is treated as a member of the international system.
Putin’s goal with an incursion into Nato would not be a clear victory, but a continued undermining of Western institutions. He is operating as a well-trained KGB agent would: confuse, subvert, fracture the opposition.
When the goals of war are murkier, and the way it is carried out is itself shadowy, as is the case in hybrid war, it becomes even easier to turn a blind eye. But hybrid war is still war, and the extension of Putin’s war into Nato territory is very much an existential threat that must be countered.
And the only way to counter a dictator is through strength: in this case, a policy of deterrence that leaves no question about a) where the red line has been drawn, and b) what will be done if it is crossed.
Stepping up support for Ukraine and engaging in a broader politics of deterrence aimed at the Putin regime, are, of course, two sides of the same coin. A demonstration that the West stands unconditionally with its ally would be a show of strength that any dictator would take seriously.
But in conjunction, Europe must issue a clear warning about what it will do if Putin dares to mount an incursion into a Nato country – and then be ready to enforce it. This warning must come with an already-agreed-upon set of implementation mechanisms that will kick into effect immediately if the trigger comes to pass. No more hesitation or discussion.
So, at this critical juncture, I am calling on Europe to match Putin in the urgency and ruthlessness with which he has been waging war in Ukraine, with an eye toward the imminent threat to eastern Europe.
Europe must:
Steps one to three are immediate actions that must be taken to defend Ukraine. Steps four and five are the steps that must be coordinated now, and made explicit, to provide a credible threat against future military action.
Most importantly, all of this must be done with the recognition that the West is engaged in all-out war – fighting not just to defend an ally, but for its very own survival, and the survival of democracy worldwide.