Nigel Farage, Sir Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch (Image: Getty)
Reform UK and the Conservatives are tied in first place in new polling.
The latest survey by Find Out Now puts the two Right-wing parties on 25% each.
Sir Keir Starmer‘s Labour Party is down one point from last week to 24%.
There has been no change for Nigel Farage‘s party from the previous poll, when it was tied with Labour at 25%.
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But Kemi Badenoch’s party has been boosted by five points, up from 20%.
The Liberal Democrats are on 12% while the Greens are on 10% in the survey of 2,386 British adults carried out on Wednesday.
Reform and the Tories are both on 25%, with Labour on 24% (Image: Find Out Now)
It comes amid ongoing calls for Reform and the Tories to join forces in order to beat Labour at the next election.
But the prospect of an election pact has been ruled out by both Mr Farage and Mrs Badenoch.
Speaking after a speech in central London on Thursday, the Tory leader said: “Nigel Farage says he wants to destroy the Conservative Party. Why on earth would we merge with that?”
She added: “Nigel Farage has been knocking around for 20-plus years. He’s been leading all sorts of different parties, so he has had a head start.
“I’ve been leading the Conservative Party for 10 weeks. Let’s see where we are in a few months and years.”
On Wednesday, Mr Farage insisted he did not trust the Tories after pulling out Brexit Party candidates at the 2019 election.
The Reform leader told LBC: “Back in 2019 we’d won the European elections as the Brexit Party, we’d got rid of Mrs May, we’d opened the door for Boris Johnson.
“And as an act of goodwill to really get Brexit over the line, I withdrew candidates from 320 seats which contributed significantly to Boris’s 80-seat majority.
“I did it because I believed it was the right thing for the country to do to end this constant battle to actually get Brexit over the line.
“What was I rewarded with? I was rewarded by a party that had promised again and again to reduce net migration to tens of thousands a year, who in 2023 gave us net migration of one million.
“I was rewarded by every industry, from fishing to financial services, not deregulating, not getting rid of EU rules, which for many people was one of the reasons for voting Brexit.
“And frankly, I feel pretty let down by them as well. So really, the question you’re asking me is, would I trust them? And the answer is, no.”
Huge Blow to Labour as Reform and Tories Joint Top in Latest Poll
Labour is facing renewed questions about its standing with voters after a series of closely watched opinion polls showed a highly competitive political landscape, with Nigel Farage’s Reform UK and Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives continuing to compete for support.
The headline suggesting that Reform and the Tories are jointly top reflects the volatility of British polling, where results can differ considerably between pollsters and individual surveys. The latest figures available on 10 October 2026, however, do not show the two parties jointly leading nationally. YouGov’s 4–5 October poll put Labour on 27%, Reform on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%, while Survation’s 2–5 October survey recorded Labour at 30%, Reform at 24% and the Conservatives at 19%. <Cite refs={[“turn509156search0″,”turn509156search1”]}/>
Those figures provide a more nuanced picture than any single dramatic headline. Labour has recovered some support, but Reform remains a significant challenger, while the Conservatives are attempting to rebuild their position after a difficult period in British politics.
The central question is whether these shifts represent a lasting change in public opinion or a temporary movement before the next major political test.
Labour’s recovery faces a difficult test
Labour’s recent polling improvement follows a challenging period in which the party has faced criticism over the economy, public services, immigration and its broader political direction.
The latest Survation survey placed Labour on 30%, its highest figure with that pollster since December 2024. The pollster also reported that Labour had remained between 27% and 30% across its five most recent surveys. <Cite refs={[“turn509156search1”]}/>
That improvement complicates the claim that Labour is losing support without interruption. It suggests that political opinion remains fluid and that the party can recover ground, at least in some surveys.
However, polling percentages alone do not establish whether voters are satisfied with the government. A party can improve its vote share while still facing serious questions about its policies, leadership and delivery.
For Labour, the challenge is to turn improved polling into sustained public confidence. Voters will be looking for evidence that ministers can address household costs, improve public services and explain their decisions clearly.
The party will also need to manage expectations. When governments promise significant change, supporters may become impatient if results are slow to appear, while opponents will look for opportunities to highlight shortcomings.
Reform UK continues to challenge the established parties
Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has built much of its appeal around immigration, dissatisfaction with the political establishment and demands for a different approach to government.
The party has also benefited from voters who believe the Conservatives failed to deliver on promises made during their years in office. Reform’s challenge is to convince those voters that it can offer practical alternatives rather than simply criticising the parties it seeks to replace.
Recent polling nevertheless shows that Reform’s support is not moving in only one direction. YouGov recorded the party at 22% in its October survey, three points lower than its previous figure, while Survation placed it at 24%. <Cite refs={[“turn509156search0″,”turn509156search1”]}/>
Differences between these results illustrate why individual polls should be interpreted carefully. Survey dates, sample composition, question wording and statistical uncertainty can all affect the figures.
Reform’s position will depend on how it responds to scrutiny over its policies, funding arrangements and internal organisation. Support for a party’s criticism of the government does not automatically mean voters endorse every proposal it makes.
To sustain its appeal, Reform must demonstrate how its policies would work in practice, including how proposed immigration measures would be implemented, how spending commitments would be funded and how public services would be managed.
The Conservatives are trying to regain ground
For Badenoch and the Conservatives, the latest polling presents a separate challenge. The party remains in contention, but its support is well below the levels it once achieved during periods of Conservative dominance.
YouGov placed the Conservatives on 20% in its October survey, while Survation recorded 19%. <Cite refs={[“turn509156search0″,”turn509156search1”]}/>
Those figures indicate that the party continues to compete for a substantial section of the electorate, even as Reform seeks to attract voters on the right.
The Conservatives must decide how to distinguish themselves from Farage’s party while explaining their own record in government. They also need to persuade voters that their policies offer credible solutions to concerns about taxation, economic growth, immigration and public services.
Badenoch faces the task of rebuilding confidence without relying solely on criticism of Labour. That means presenting clear policy proposals and explaining why voters who have considered switching to Reform should continue to regard the Conservatives as a viable political choice.
The competition between the two parties is significant because they may appeal to overlapping groups of voters, even though their approaches and priorities are not identical.
Why one poll cannot tell the whole story
The phrase “joint top” can create a misleading impression if it is taken out of context. A poll showing two parties level would be a snapshot of voting intentions among a particular sample at a particular time, not proof that they were tied across the entire electorate.
The latest weighted polling average published by Fred Cornell on 10 October placed Labour at 26.4%, Reform at 23.1% and the Conservatives at 20.0%. That average drew on published polls with fieldwork through 7 October. <Cite refs={[“turn509156search4”]}/>
A polling average can help reduce the influence of unusual results from any one survey, although it too depends on the polls included and the method used to weight them.
The distinction is important for voters and political parties alike. A dramatic result may generate headlines, but longer-term trends provide a more reliable way to assess whether a party’s support is strengthening or weakening.
Nor can national vote-intention figures alone establish how many parliamentary seats each party would win. Britain’s electoral system means that the geographic distribution of support matters alongside the national percentage.
What happens next?
The next phase of the political contest will depend on policy decisions, public events and the parties’ ability to convince voters that they understand the problems facing the country.
Labour will seek to consolidate its recent improvement and demonstrate that its programme is producing results. Reform will try to maintain its position as a challenger to the established parties, while the Conservatives will look for ways to rebuild their support and distinguish themselves from Farage.
All three face questions about credibility. Labour must demonstrate that it can deliver on its promises. Reform must show that its proposals are workable and that its organisation can withstand scrutiny. The Conservatives must persuade voters that their experience in government is an asset rather than a liability.
The latest figures do not establish that Labour has suffered a decisive new defeat in public opinion, nor do they confirm a national tie between Reform and the Conservatives at the top of the polls. Instead, they show a competitive political environment in which support varies between surveys and the leading parties continue to face significant challenges.
For British politics, that uncertainty is itself an important development. The contest remains open to shifts in public opinion, and the parties’ next decisions will be judged not just by the headlines they generate but by the policies and evidence they put before voters.