Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer (Image: Getty)

It comes ahead of the Prime Minister’s keynote speech to Labour’s gathering in Liverpool this afternoon.

Sir Keir is expected to use the address to ramp up his attacks on Reform UK.

“A country, proud of its values, in control of its future, or one that succumbs, against the grain of our history, to the politics of grievance.”

Sir Keir also branded Reform UK’s immigration policy to scrap indefinite leave to remain as “racist” over the weekend.

Keir Starmer Hit by Polling Blow Hours Before Labour Conference Speech

Keir Starmer has been hit by a fresh polling setback as Labour headed into its annual conference, with a new survey showing Reform UK moving ahead of the governing party in voting intention.

The poll arrived at a politically significant moment, with Labour gathered in Liverpool for its annual conference and Starmer preparing to address party members and the wider public. The figures provided another indication of the difficult political environment facing Labour after its return to government.

A YouGov poll conducted on September 27 and 28 put Reform UK on 25%, up four points, while Labour stood on 24%. The Conservatives were on 19%, down two points. The Greens recorded 8%.

The result represented a one-point lead for Reform in that particular survey. It also contrasted with other recent polling, underlining the importance of looking at several surveys rather than treating a single poll as a definitive measure of public opinion.

A difficult moment for Labour

The timing of the YouGov survey made it particularly significant.

The poll was conducted as Labour’s conference was getting under way, with the party attempting to use the gathering to present its priorities and demonstrate a clear political direction.

However, the latest figures suggested that Reform remained a substantial competitor.

The survey also came after Labour had recently experienced a period in which its position in some polling had improved. That meant the new figures provided a reminder that changes in voting intention can occur quickly and that individual polls can produce different pictures of the political landscape.

The Independent described the result as a setback for Labour on the eve of Andy Burnham’s conference speech. It also reported that Labour chair Bridget Phillipson sought to play down the significance of the individual poll, arguing that polling changes over time.

Reform’s rise in the survey

Reform’s increase to 25% represented the largest movement among the main parties in the YouGov survey.

Nigel Farage’s party has spent recent years attempting to establish itself as a permanent force in British politics rather than simply a protest movement.

Its campaign has concentrated on issues including immigration, taxation, national sovereignty and dissatisfaction with the established parties.

The latest poll gave Reform a narrow lead over Labour and a six-point advantage over the Conservatives.

That does not mean Reform has permanently overtaken Labour. Opinion polling measures voting intentions at a particular point in time, and different pollsters can produce different results.

Indeed, another major poll conducted earlier in September showed a different picture.

Ipsos’s survey of 1,031 British adults, conducted between September 10 and 15, put Labour on 27% and Reform on 23%, giving Labour a four-point lead. The Conservatives were on 21%.

The difference between the two surveys demonstrates why individual results need to be viewed within the wider polling picture.

Labour’s position remains fluid

The latest YouGov result nevertheless presents a challenge for Labour because it came during a major opportunity for the party to communicate directly with voters.

Party conferences traditionally allow governing parties to set out their priorities without the same constraints as an ordinary parliamentary week.

The leadership can announce policies, emphasise achievements and attempt to establish the themes it wants to dominate political debate.

A poll showing Reform narrowly ahead therefore provides an unwelcome backdrop.

It also highlights the difficulty of maintaining support among voters who may have different priorities.

Labour has traditionally relied on a broad coalition of working-class voters, public-sector workers, younger voters and people in urban areas. Reform has attempted to attract some voters who previously supported Labour as well as significant numbers of former Conservative voters.

The result is a more fragmented electorate.

The Conservative Party remains significant

The Conservatives’ position in the YouGov survey is also important.

At 19%, the party remained behind both Reform and Labour, although its support was still substantial.

The Conservative Party continues to face the challenge of defining its political identity after the 2024 general election while competing with Reform for voters on the political right.

Kemi Badenoch’s leadership has therefore involved balancing two objectives: rebuilding the Conservatives as a distinct political force while responding to Reform’s growing presence.

The latest figures show that Reform’s rise is not simply a Labour problem.

The Conservatives are also involved in the same contest for voters who want a change from the governing party.

That three-way competition has made British voting intentions considerably less predictable than the traditional Labour-Conservative contest.

Other parties also matter

The YouGov survey also placed the Greens on 8%.

Although that was lower than the figures recorded by some other polls, the Greens remain relevant because they compete for some voters who might otherwise support Labour.

The Liberal Democrats were also an important part of the wider political picture, although their support was below the three leading parties in this particular survey.

This fragmentation means that Labour’s political challenge cannot be reduced to simply stopping Reform.

The party has to maintain support across different parts of its electoral coalition while competing with several parties simultaneously.

The wider polling picture

The YouGov result looks less dramatic when compared with the broader polling trend.

Ipsos’s September survey showed Labour four points ahead of Reform, while the PollCheck tracker’s seven-poll average, based on major UK pollsters, had Labour ahead of Reform by three points as of September 19.

That broader evidence suggests that the parties were relatively close in national voting intention, even though individual surveys sometimes produced different leaders.

This is an important distinction.

A one-point Reform lead in one YouGov survey does not establish a long-term shift in public opinion.

At the same time, it cannot simply be ignored. It demonstrates that Reform is capable of recording support at a level that places it directly alongside the two established major parties.

For Labour strategists, that means the party must continue to pay attention to voters who may be considering alternatives.

The importance of leadership

Polling about party support is only one part of the political picture.

Ipsos also measured attitudes towards political leaders in September. Its survey found that Andy Burnham was preferred as prime minister by 35% of respondents, compared with 15% for Kemi Badenoch and 14% for Nigel Farage.

The same Ipsos research found that 31% were satisfied with Burnham’s performance as prime minister, while 44% were dissatisfied.

This highlights the difference between voting intention and leader ratings.

A party can perform differently from the popularity of its leader, and a leader’s personal rating does not automatically translate into a particular level of party support.

For Labour, however, the distinction is especially relevant during a conference, when the party leadership has an opportunity to communicate its programme directly to voters.

The significance of the conference speech

The latest polling placed additional attention on Burnham’s conference address.

His speech was expected to focus on the direction of the Labour government and its priorities for the remainder of the parliamentary term.

The Institute for Government identified the conference as an important opportunity for Burnham to establish priorities and build support within his own party for difficult policy decisions.

The conference has also featured debates over economic growth, welfare, defence, social care and Britain’s relationship with Europe.

Those subjects carry significant political risks because different groups of Labour supporters hold different views about how the government should approach them.

Reform’s response

Reform politicians quickly highlighted the YouGov result.

Reform deputy leader Richard Tice used the figures to criticise the government’s position, while Reform chair Lee Anderson also drew attention to the party’s rise in the survey.

Such reactions are unsurprising during a period of close competition.

For Reform, a poll placing the party ahead of Labour provides an opportunity to argue that it has become a central part of Britain’s political landscape.

For Labour, the response is more complicated.

The party can point to other polls showing it ahead and argue that a single survey should not determine the political narrative.

Both points are supported by the wider polling evidence.

What the figures actually show

The most important conclusion from the latest polling is not that one party has permanently replaced another.

Instead, the figures demonstrate how closely contested national voting intentions have become.

The YouGov survey recorded Reform on 25%, Labour on 24% and the Conservatives on 19%. Ipsos, conducted earlier in the month, recorded Labour on 27%, Reform on 23% and the Conservatives on 21%.

The difference illustrates both the competitiveness of the political environment and the uncertainty surrounding individual polling snapshots.

For Labour, the immediate challenge is to use its conference to explain what it intends to achieve and why voters should support its programme.

For Reform, the challenge is to convert its growing political profile into sustained support across the country.

For the Conservatives, the task remains rebuilding while competing with Reform for voters who once formed part of the party’s traditional coalition.

The latest YouGov poll therefore provides a striking backdrop to the Labour conference.

It gives Reform a narrow lead in one national survey at a moment when Labour is seeking to project confidence and direction.

But the broader evidence remains more mixed. Other recent polling has Labour ahead, and polling averages have also shown the two parties relatively close.

The figures should therefore be understood as a snapshot of public opinion rather than a forecast of an eventual election result.

What they do demonstrate is that Britain’s political competition remains highly fluid, with Labour, Reform and the Conservatives all facing different challenges as they seek to build durable support.

Against that backdrop, the conference speech provides Labour’s leadership with an opportunity to set out its priorities — while the latest polling ensures that every policy announcement will be judged against an increasingly competitive political landscape.