Nigel Farage with Nadhim Zahawi (Image: Getty)

Nadhim Zahawi brings baggage to Reform (Image: Getty)

He’s a convincing performer, well spoken, knowledgeable, and – most importantly for Nigel Farage – his departure is a crushing blow to Kemi Badenoch.

While the Tories, naturally, dismissed the treacherous defector as a political “has-been”, Mr Zahawi claimed only some weeks ago he had been approached by Ms Badenoch seeking advice to help the party’s depressing performance in the polls.

There are clearly issues with any party accepting defections, because they naturally bring over baggage, regardless of how independently minded and rebellious they may have been during their parliamentary career.

Naturally, therefore, this means most Tory-to-Reform defections have a credibility problem, given Reform’s current polling is largely thanks to the Tories’ dismal failure on everything from the economy to immigration.

We may be approaching the maximum number of defections Farage should be accepting (Image: Getty)

All Tory defectors have to walk a tightrope. On the one hand, improve the mainstream credibility of the party, and persuade Tory voters who are on the fence to also make the jump. On the other, not appear the ‘new Tory party’.

In the meantime we journalists can enjoy a good laugh about all the mean tweets Mr Zahawi’s posted about Mr Farage – until the Government shuts down X for good, that is.

The key question Mr Farage needs to consider is how many Tories is too many, and will he ever close the floodgates.

Much like the country, there’s a big question to be asked about whether too many are entering Reform UK, and whether they can integrate properly in such large quantities.

I would suggest we’re approaching the limit, and Reform needs to start closing down its safe and legal defection routes.

I was in the room for Reform’s latest defection – is this an own goal from Farage?

Reform UK entered Welsh politics in May with a breakthrough that transformed the party’s position in the Senedd. It won 34 seats in the expanded 96-member Welsh Parliament, becoming the largest opposition party behind Plaid Cymru. For Nigel Farage, the result offered evidence that Reform could move beyond its traditional role as a Westminster protest party and establish itself as a serious force across the United Kingdom.

Four months later, however, the party has been forced to deal with an abrupt leadership change, the defection of one of its Senedd members and renewed questions about its internal organisation.

That is the background to the question of whether Farage has scored an “own goal” in Wales.

The phrase is political commentary rather than an established fact. There is no evidence that Farage deliberately caused the recent problems. What can be established is that several disruptive events happened within a very short period, placing considerable pressure on Reform’s Welsh operation.

The sequence began on 15 September, when Dan Thomas announced that he was stepping down as leader of Reform UK in Wales.

Thomas had only been appointed to the position in February. He had previously been a Conservative councillor and leader of Barnet Council in north London before moving back to Wales and joining Reform. In May, he became leader of the opposition in the newly elected Senedd.

His resignation followed news that he had been arrested on suspicion of assault and controlling or coercive behaviour. Gwent Police said a 45-year-old man had been arrested and released on bail pending further inquiries. Thomas said he had done nothing wrong and explained that he did not want the investigation to become a distraction for Reform’s Welsh team. (The Guardian)

The distinction is important. An arrest is not a conviction, and Thomas has not been charged with an offence. His decision to step aside was a political and organisational decision rather than a finding of guilt.

Yet the timing created an immediate problem for Reform.

Thomas had been chosen by Farage to lead the party into the Senedd election. Reform had invested heavily in Wales and hoped its strong electoral performance would provide a foundation for future growth. Instead, its newly established leadership structure was suddenly being reorganised.

Then came another development on exactly the same day.

Sarah Cooper-Lesadd, one of Reform’s newly elected Members of the Senedd, announced that she was leaving the party and joining Plaid Cymru.

Her departure reduced Reform’s representation from 34 to 33 members, while Plaid Cymru increased its total from 43 to 44. Cooper-Lesadd said Reform was not sufficiently interested in governing Wales and argued that the party was more focused on opposition and national political headlines. (Unmasked)

Reform disputed her account.

The party said it had planned to expel Cooper-Lesadd after discovering her support for Welsh independence, arguing that this was incompatible with Reform’s position on maintaining the United Kingdom. A Reform representative described her defection as a consequence of differences over the party’s fundamental principles. (Unmasked)

So there are two competing explanations for what happened.

Cooper-Lesadd presented her departure as evidence of a wider problem with Reform’s approach to Welsh politics. Reform presented it as the removal of a politician whose views were inconsistent with the party’s established position.

Neither interpretation should be treated as an independently proven explanation for every difficulty inside the Welsh group.

What is clear is that the two developments landed almost simultaneously.

For Farage, the immediate task was therefore to prevent a short-term crisis from becoming a longer-term organisational problem.

On 21 September, he introduced Helen Jenner as Reform’s new Welsh leader.

Jenner had served as Thomas’s deputy and had temporarily taken on some of his responsibilities. She represents Bangor Conwy Môn and previously worked as a teacher for 15 years. She also has a political history within the broader Eurosceptic movement, having previously stood for the Brexit Party and been involved with UKIP. (ITVX)

Farage described Jenner as someone he trusted and said he believed she would perform well in the role.

He also characterised Thomas’s departure as a “bump in the road” and said Reform would continue its political work in Wales.

That response illustrates the central challenge facing the party.

Reform’s rapid expansion has created opportunities, but expansion also creates organisational demands. A party that wins only a handful of seats can operate with a relatively small structure. A party suddenly controlling dozens of parliamentary positions, hundreds of councillors and a much larger national membership requires stronger procedures, candidate selection, discipline and communication.

Wales provides a particularly demanding test.

Welsh politics has its own political institutions, political culture and constitutional debate. Reform’s national message has often focused heavily on Westminster, immigration, taxation, Brexit and the powers of the UK government. Its Welsh representatives must simultaneously develop positions on health, education, the Welsh language, transport, housing and the powers of the Senedd.

Jenner acknowledged that the party had experienced a difficult period and said there were areas where Reform needed to change. She also argued that the group would come together and continue its work. (ITVX)

That gives her a very immediate political assignment: demonstrate that the leadership change does not fundamentally alter Reform’s ability to function as an opposition party.

The question of Farage’s personal responsibility is more complicated.

He selected Thomas as the party’s Welsh leader, so the leadership change inevitably reflects on the national organisation. Critics can reasonably argue that decisions made by the central leadership deserve scrutiny when a prominent appointment lasts only months.

But the available evidence does not establish that Farage anticipated Thomas’s arrest or deliberately created the circumstances surrounding it.

Likewise, Cooper-Lesadd’s defection reflects a disagreement over political direction, but it cannot automatically be attributed to a single decision by Farage.

The broader issue is therefore less about one individual event and more about whether Reform can turn rapid electoral growth into a stable political organisation.

That question extends beyond Wales.

The party has recruited politicians from other parties, attracted substantial public attention and expanded its elected representation. Such growth can bring experienced politicians into the organisation, but it can also bring people with different political backgrounds and expectations.

The events in Wales demonstrate one of the potential difficulties of that model.

Thomas arrived from the Conservatives. Cooper-Lesadd also had a Conservative background before joining Reform. Their subsequent experiences inside the party were different, but both cases illustrate the challenges of integrating politicians who have previously operated within other political traditions.

Meanwhile, Reform’s Welsh group must prepare for another major test: local government elections and the management of its growing number of representatives.

Farage has said the party intends to contest hundreds of council seats across Wales. (AOL)

That means the party cannot afford to treat organisational questions as secondary.

The immediate leadership crisis may eventually become a relatively small episode in Reform’s Welsh history. Alternatively, it could become an early warning about the difficulties of transforming an insurgent political movement into a conventional governing organisation.

The distinction will depend on what happens next.

Helen Jenner now has to establish authority within the Senedd group, maintain discipline among members and present a coherent Welsh agenda. Reform’s national leadership has to decide how much autonomy its Welsh operation should have and how much control should remain in Westminster.

Most importantly, the party must demonstrate that disagreements can be managed without repeated defections or leadership crises.

For Farage, that is arguably the more significant issue than the immediate embarrassment of replacing one Welsh leader.

The May election showed that Reform could make a substantial electoral breakthrough in Wales. The events of September have shown that winning seats and building a durable political organisation are different tasks.

Calling the episode an “own goal” is therefore a matter of interpretation.

The factual record is simpler: Reform’s Welsh leader stepped down after an arrest, one Senedd member defected to Plaid Cymru, and Helen Jenner was subsequently chosen as the new Welsh leader. Thomas denies wrongdoing and remains a Senedd member, while the police investigation continues. (The Guardian)

Whether this becomes a temporary disruption or a deeper organisational problem will depend less on the headlines surrounding the crisis and more on what Reform does with the political platform it won in May.

For now, the party has another opportunity to prove that its rapid rise can be matched by the structures required to sustain it.

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