Reform UK leader Nigel Farage with Caerphilly candidate Llyr Powell (Image: WalesOnline/Rob Browne)
Reform UK hopes to win a historic victory this week and snatch a heartland constituency away from Labour. Caerphilly has voted Labour in every election to Westminster since 1918 but polling suggests Nigel Farage’s party has a slight lead over pro-independence Plaid Cymru ahead of Thursday’s Welsh Parliament by-election.
A Reform win would intensify fears in Labour circles that Sir Keir Starmer is on course for humiliation in May’s mega-elections to the Scottish and Welsh parliaments and councils across England.
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For Reform, the by-election is an opportunity to test the success of efforts to bring a new degree of professionalism to its campaigning machine.
Candidate Llŷr Powell, 30, has high hopes Reform will seize control of the Welsh Parliament – also known as the Senedd – in May.
He said: “Our goal is to take control of the Welsh Government – not just win the largest number of seats. And we want to use those levers of power to make the lives of the people of Wales better.”
Mr Powell said getting supporters – some of whom he said have been disillusioned with long-established parties and not voted for many years – to cast their ballot on the day is a key challenge. But he said he had noticed a change in the nature of support.
Local voters are no longer lending their vote to Reform because they are angry with Labour, he claimed. Rather, they are now proud to identify with the party.
“I think Reform is now the major party in Wales,” he said.
A senior Welsh Labour figure described the situation as a “****storm,” saying: “It’s difficult to look like a insurgent, radical party when you’ve been in power for Westminster for 15 months [and in] the Welsh Senedd for 26 years.”
The senior source blasted Labour in the Welsh Parliament for an “obsession with constitutional reform,” saying: “They forgot about education, they forgot about health, to a certain extent they forgot about transport… They were more interested in a power-grab than they were in actually getting down and delivering and the problem is now that the chickens are coming home to roost.”
Reform’s Mr Powell is urging people who have abandoned Labour to make the trip to the polling station.
“It’s actually getting out there and voting on the day that matters,” he said.
A Survation poll put Reform in first place in the constituency with 42% support, ahead of Plaid Cymru (38%) and Labour (12%).
Reform UK candidate Llyr Powell faces competition from Plaid Cymru in Caerphilly (Image: John Myers)
Mr Powell said he wanted Wales to become the first “common sense” nation under a Reform Government.
“For me, winning the next Senedd elections is a priority and taking control of the Government must be our goal, and nothing else matters,” he said.
Reform already has one Member of Senedd, Laura Anne Jones, who defected from the Conservatives. But a win in Caerphilly would encourage the party to believe it can win hard-fought contests in a nation where Labour has been the biggest party in every Westminster and Senedd election for more than a century.
Llyr Powell wants to take control of the Welsh Government (Image: Rowan Griffiths )
Mr Powell batted away the question of whether he would like to be the first non-Labour First Minister
“Right now, the priority here in Wales for us is building a team,” he said. “One person can’t fix Wales; it’s going to be a cabinet that we have to collect together.”
Mr Farage, he said, commanded respect on the doorsteps.
“Even if they don’t agree with something he’s saying, they believe that he believes it,” he said. “That’s what other politicians don’t have – he’s very authentic.”
Laura Jones defected from the Conservatives to become Reform’s first Member of the Senedd (Image: Rowan Griffiths / Daily Mirror)
Keir Starmer Faces By-Election Nightmare as Reform UK Storms Labour Heartland
Keir Starmer’s former constituency is heading towards a closely watched by-election, but the latest evidence suggests that the biggest threat to Labour may not actually be coming from Reform UK.
Holborn and St Pancras will go to the polls on October 8, after Starmer resigned his parliamentary seat on September 1. The contest has attracted unusual national attention because it is the first time in decades that a former prime minister’s own constituency has been contested after his departure from Downing Street.
Reform UK is standing Peter Newman, a former Metropolitan Police officer. However, available constituency projections currently place Reform behind both Labour and the Greens. The latest published model from British Political Data puts Labour on 34.6 per cent, the Greens on 30.5 per cent and Reform on 11 per cent. Importantly, these are model-based projections rather than a constituency poll. No constituency poll had been published by September 16.
That makes the political story considerably more complicated than the phrase “Reform storms Labour heartland” suggests.
Starmer’s former seat becomes a national test
Starmer had represented Holborn and St Pancras since 2015 and won the constituency with a substantial majority in 2024.
At the last general election, Labour received 48.9 per cent of the vote and secured a majority of 11,572. An independent candidate, Andrew Feinstein, finished second with 21.5 per cent, while the Greens received 10.4 per cent. Reform UK was on 6.1 per cent.
Those figures underline the scale of the political change being tested.
A seat that once appeared extremely secure for Labour is now facing a much more fragmented contest involving 15 candidates.
Labour’s candidate is Sagal Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council. The Green Party has selected its leader, Zack Polanski, while Reform is represented by Peter Newman. The Conservatives are fielding Ewan Cameron and the Liberal Democrats Patrick Spillman. George Galloway is also standing for the Workers Party of Britain.
The presence of several high-profile candidates means the result cannot simply be interpreted as a conventional Labour-Reform contest.
Reform’s wider rise
There is nevertheless a strong reason why Reform UK is receiving so much attention.
The party made major gains in the May 2026 local elections, particularly in traditional Labour areas in northern England and the Midlands.
Reuters reported during the count that Reform was making substantial advances in areas including Wigan, Bolton, Salford and Halton. Labour also lost control of councils in places including Tameside, Redditch and Tamworth.
The results demonstrated that Reform could win support in areas that had historically been associated with Labour.
That development has transformed the electoral map.
However, the pattern is not uniform across Britain.
Holborn and St Pancras is a central London constituency with a very different political profile from many of the northern and Midlands communities where Reform has made its strongest gains.
The question is therefore whether Reform’s national expansion can translate into meaningful support in a constituency where it won only 6.1 per cent in 2024.
Labour’s principal challenger is currently the Greens
The most striking feature of the by-election is the strength of the Green challenge.
Zack Polanski, the Green Party leader, is attempting to turn the contest into a test of Labour’s support among urban and progressive voters.
Lord Ashcroft’s recent focus groups in the constituency found that many participants still expected Labour to hold the seat, but there was also evidence of dissatisfaction with the party and interest in the Green campaign.
Several participants expressed the view that Starmer had struggled politically, while some regarded Burnham’s arrival as an improvement for Labour.
That is particularly relevant because the by-election is taking place after a major change in Labour leadership.
Starmer is no longer the party leader or prime minister.
Andy Burnham replaced him during the summer and has since overseen a recovery in Labour’s national polling position.
The Burnham factor
The latest national polling is considerably more encouraging for Labour than the numbers recorded during Starmer’s final weeks.
Sky News reported that Labour had fallen below 20 per cent in national polling during Starmer’s final period in Downing Street. Since Burnham became prime minister, Labour’s average headline vote share has recovered to around 26 per cent.
A YouGov MRP published on September 24 projected Labour as the largest party in a hypothetical general election, with 241 seats. Reform was projected to win 123 and the Conservatives 130.
The model also showed how fragmented the electoral landscape has become, with 37 per cent of constituencies projected to be decided by five points or less.
Those figures cannot be directly applied to Holborn and St Pancras.
But they provide important national context.
The by-election is taking place at a time when Labour is no longer experiencing the same level of national weakness seen during Starmer’s final months.
Local voting patterns tell another story
Local election results provide another useful indication of how the constituency has changed.
According to PollCheck’s analysis, Labour won 38.8 per cent across the wards making up Holborn and St Pancras in the May 2026 local elections. The Greens were on 28.8 per cent, while Reform was on 8.5 per cent.
Compared with the 2024 general election, that represents a substantial rise in Green support and a more modest increase for Reform.
The Greens also won two wards within the constituency.
That is why the current contest has attracted so much attention from Labour strategists.
The issue is not simply whether Labour can withstand Reform UK. It is whether Labour can retain voters who previously supported the party but are now considering the Greens.
A fragmented anti-Labour vote
The 2024 result also demonstrates why by-election mathematics can be unpredictable.
Feinstein’s independent campaign won 18.9 per cent in the constituency, finishing second to Starmer. Feinstein is not standing this time and has endorsed Polanski. His former supporters therefore represent an important bloc of voters whose behaviour could influence the result.
At the same time, Galloway’s entry has introduced another candidate appealing to voters critical of Labour.
That creates a fragmented field.
For Reform, this could potentially limit its ability to challenge Labour directly. The party’s support is competing with several other alternatives rather than benefiting from a straightforward two-party contest.
The absence of a published constituency poll makes it difficult to measure exactly how voters are currently dividing their support.
Why Reform’s position still matters
Even if Reform is not currently projected to win Holborn and St Pancras, its presence remains politically significant.
The party’s national rise has forced Labour to defend constituencies that would previously have been regarded as relatively secure.
In northern and Midlands constituencies, Reform has already demonstrated its ability to take large numbers of council seats from Labour. The party’s performance in the May elections was one of the factors contributing to the political crisis that eventually led to Starmer’s resignation.
But political geography matters.
A Reform campaign that succeeds in a former Labour stronghold in the North may not automatically reproduce the same result in inner London.
Holborn and St Pancras has a distinctive electorate, and its recent electoral history shows considerably stronger Labour and Green support than Reform.
The Starmer legacy
The by-election inevitably carries a personal dimension because Starmer represented the constituency for more than a decade.
His departure means that voters are effectively being asked to choose a new MP while also passing judgment on the period of Labour government associated with his leadership.
Lord Ashcroft’s focus groups found that many voters regarded Starmer as a committed local MP while being considerably more critical of his record as prime minister.
That distinction could influence the campaign.
Some voters may separate their view of Starmer from their assessment of Labour’s current leadership under Burnham.
Others may regard the by-election as an opportunity to express dissatisfaction with the party’s previous direction.
Still others may focus almost entirely on local issues.
The bigger political significance
Whatever happens on October 8, the result will be closely examined beyond the boundaries of the constituency.
For Labour, the contest provides an early test of whether the change from Starmer to Burnham has altered the party’s electoral fortunes.
For the Greens, it represents an opportunity to demonstrate that their gains in urban areas can translate into parliamentary representation.
For Reform, the election offers another chance to test the limits of its national expansion.
The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats will also be attempting to maintain or expand their support in a constituency where neither party finished close to Labour in 2024.
Yet the available evidence currently does not show Reform UK “storming” the seat.
The latest published constituency models place Reform well behind Labour and the Greens, while the national polls show Reform competing strongly across Britain but not dominating the national picture.
A contest still worth watching
The most important fact is that there is no constituency poll establishing a current voting lead.
The available evidence comes from the 2024 result, the 2026 local elections, national polling and model-based projections. Those sources provide useful indicators, but they are not the same thing as asking Holborn and St Pancras voters directly how they intend to vote.
The constituency’s 2024 result gave Labour an 11,572-vote majority. The 2026 local elections showed significant Green growth, while Reform remained a smaller force locally.
That combination makes the by-election an important test of political change without making its outcome predetermined.
Starmer’s political chapter has already ended. He has left Downing Street and has now left Parliament as well.
The question facing Labour is what comes next.
The Holborn and St Pancras by-election will provide one of the clearest early indications of whether the party’s recovery under Burnham can withstand a serious challenge from its political opponents — and whether the electoral shifts seen during the final months of the Starmer era are continuing or beginning to reverse.
For Reform UK, meanwhile, the contest is another opportunity to demonstrate whether its national rise can break into parts of Britain where its support remains comparatively limited.
With polling day scheduled for October 8, the political battle is still unfolding. The available evidence points to a competitive and fragmented contest, but it does not support treating a Reform victory as an established fact.